GunBlade
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Everything posted by GunBlade
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Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Places like CLT and just south will be hoping the FV3 is right.
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I’m ok with about .10 freezing rain after snow. Awesome view when the sun rises with a little ice on the trees and coating the snow making everything glisten.
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Fixed for you
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Not sure much analysis can be done until the storm gets there. Always a potential though.
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And Union County NC where I live is lit up like a Christmas tree. Few miles north to the Meck border and we are toast. Ugh. Just fired up the generator to make sure all is good and ready just in case. As long as we don’t lose natural gas we will be good.
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That is a devastating look for many areas including where I am. Add that on top of snow and sleet and it will be a disaster here.
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Yea normally we are hoping these amp up because they’re too far south.
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Yea just as others say cut the snow maps in half I assume half the QPF as well as models overdo QPF many times. Somewhere will get it but it’s never as widespread as modeled.
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Winter storm warnings out from GSP.
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Those maps still paint an obvious picture of the trend of snow totals moving south across the models. Amounts aren’t a big deal but when CLT is moving into the jackpot of the clown maps it’s just as crazy to say they see 10% snow as it is to say they see the clown totals being shown.
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GSP due to release updated maps shortly but this summarizes living in NC lol. 9/10 chance of greater than 0” lol and 1/10 of greater than a foot. Wow
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Good sign for us folks living on a razors edge that the RGEM is already showing the same totals or more here as NAM out to only 54 hours. If the GFS and others trend just a little further south and get the Meck Union county line into the bullseye area I’ll feel a lot more comfortable that we at least end up with more than 1 or 2 inches of snow and a lot of ice. I’ve said it a few times before, it can pay off being this close if we end up on the right side of that dividing line. Here’s to hoping!
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I posted it, it’s below as well. Difference being then the models showed us getting hammered and they whiffed. Even showing big totals day of the storm. Not the same as this storm as there’s ALOT of time left. Point being when I posted it for people to remember where we live and how imperfect these models are. They can whiff the other way as well and us get more snow than they show, it’s just not as common.
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Yup and 850 into SC as well. Quite a bit cooler so far. Big for areas like me on the edge.
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Thanks. Nice to know it’s automated. I initially felt bad for whoever had to put that puzzle together! Thanks for all you do! Definitely a mess trying to piece together this storm.
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Definitely. Normally we are hoping for a 200 mile NW shift to get in the game. This time we are consistently in it but the smallest details will make all the difference which are the hardest for models to nail down. Going to be a nail biter for a lot.
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Will be interesting to see what future models show. The NAM is killing off snow totals out west as well. We can say it’s NAM at 84 hours, but it’s not 84 hours for totals out west. Hopefully that’s not the trend moving forward.
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I have seen it a few times but not often. Nice thing is they aren’t pressured in a news room environment so they can put out what models show (conservatively still). Difference here is normally we don’t have so much model agreement so early. The storms normally gone until the day before. GSP is always on top of storms though and not afraid to show the possibilities. Always big kudos to them.
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I really really hope this storm is as great as many models show, but a word of caution, especially for those around 85 in NC. Enjoy the model runs but don’t live and die by them. Read the thread below and temper expectations. Better to be pleasantly surprised if the totals are close. The pic and thread are from the Jan 17 storm that was a big bust. Not saying these storms are the same, just that the cutoff line and WAA are notoriously hard for models to get right. Union county was looking great the morning before the storm and we got shafted. QPF was also way overdone by the models Its easy for most of us and myself to get wrapped up in these models but this is a tough area even for short range models to get right. Hopefully this doesn’t repeat itself with this storm though!!
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He’s referring to the WAA. 2M temps could easily get locked in and support sleet or freezing rain bc the upper air won’t support snow anymore. Always a concern in these parts.
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The Gastonia/Shelby area normally does really well in these situations. They’re in the perfect location for CAD as far south as they are. When it retreats around here and CLT, it normally goes west and leaves them in the CAD before retreating north. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re one of the big winners from this storm.
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Kind of reminds me of the Feb 2014 storm we got. We got nailed with snow from the get go, had wonderful rates and quickly accumulated maybe 4-6”. But the WAA turned the last few hours into a sleet fest. Really killed the totals we could’ve had here. Good thing is having lots of snow then sleet didn’t cause the issues like sleet alone would or had it been freezing rain on top of everything. But like most have said, the transition line almost always sets up around this area, especially with strong systems like this one as the WAA is rarely modeled correctly. From past storms, the models seem to get a decent idea around 1-2 days out (especially the NAM) of the WAA and transition area but the subsequent runs seem to slowly erode away the WAA and increase QPF and give back hope of big totals. Only to be smashed once the storms over. By the time we get close enough to the HRRR etc...being used and they start showing the WAA, ppl then want to assume those models aren’t correct based on the prior global runs not showing it I would not disregard any model(s) that start to push that snow line west over the next cpl days, if it happens, as much as I want to bury my head and pretend I don’t see it on the models either. I know the info above isn’t very technical in nature, just experience from seeing these storms and models year after year.
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Yup and I think we stayed about 1 degree away from snow. Got some sleet and snow/rain mix but not much else. Hopefully this can trend just a touch colder or further south and bring those totals down a little closer to us.
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That summarizes 95% of winter storms here. I’m right at the Mecklenburg/Union County line and most times we are within a few miles of rain/snow etc... Just going to north side of Meck county up near Wow normally is where the bigger totals are. Sometimes being that close pays off as that’s where the best rates and QPF is but it’s a very fine line as all the snow maps are showing.
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The strangest weather around CLT I can remember. I remember summers being brutal with 30+ in a row 90 degree days and lots of 100 degree days throughout summer, but cool temps by this time of year. This year it seems like we have spent May through September between 85 and 95 degrees. Few extremely hot days compared to years past but never a break from the temps.
