GunBlade
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Everything posted by GunBlade
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40/36 humidity 85 in Matthews. Doesn’t sound great but the Temp DP and Humidity have been steadily dropping throughout the night and morning even with moisture moving in so there’s plenty of cooling to come. And the 850 line has dropped mostly through Union County now as well.
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Take the GFS qpf and the NAM warm nose and that’s your storm. NAM has sniffed out more than enough warm noses in my area over the years for me to never underestimate it. I’ve also seen it ramp up QPF like crazy right up to the storm and then verify with half what was modeled.
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Was in office with blinds closed, walked out and it’s snowing good in Matthews. Welcomed surprise!
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Wet bulb temp is right around 32 here in Matthews if moisture holds together and doesn’t warm anymore.
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Feels like we always error to a degree warmer than shown and end with 33/34 rain...
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It’s basically an EF4 tornado with gusts into EF5, yet is bigger than many states in the country.....unreal.
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That didn’t work out so well for us last year. We got lows into the 50’s in august and not again until Mid October.... :/ Would love to not see that repeat again.
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And therein lies the problem with this area. Sure, the maybe storm Tue/Wed would be easier than a phase etc...but phases and coastal bombs are how we get the big snow here. Id rather have cold air here and hope for the gulf sliders going up the east coast. Anything in between is extra and helps it feel like winter.
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If there’s going to be a storm before the end of the month I wouldn’t be surprised if some models start consistently hinting at one in the next 3-5 days. The storm out west is just coming on shore and will be a big player in the changes to come. Let that tear things up for a few days and then see where we stand. Not surprising the models are all over the place with that going on.
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Nothing better than a well performing ULL. Some of the best 1-2 hours of snow in some of those I’ve ever seen.
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GSP updated maps very similar to last one.
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Man that moisture is literally hitting a wall of dry air and not moving at all in NC. I’d bet in the areas like CLT where that has setup do fairly well in the end since the CAD should keep strengthening. https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php
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Outside of Roanoke impressive to see your intitial and final estimates lining up. Just shows how well in general this has been modeled. As long as the storm continues as advertised.
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19z HRRR
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Nothing posted shows that. Back it up with models if you’re going to make bold statements.
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Every single storm. When you’re SE of 85 by less than 10 miles and around 1 mile from 485 every little thing has huge implications. If the HRRR is right at least we can hopefully stick to mostly snow and sleet. I’ll take that in early December.
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850 down to NC/SC border and 925 at Meck Union border.
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18z HRRR still bringing the goods. LOTS of mixing but holding strong with colder air out to 21.
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17z HRRR holding on to keeping rain much further south.
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Agreed, not taking them face value and using lots of other thought they can be helpful. Most don’t. I’m probably also more biased based on climatology where I’m at since it’s so hard for any model to nail down this area.
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Time and time again the Globals fail this close to the storm. It’s fruitless trying to forecast with those now unless you want to prove a point that’s likely to not come to fruition...
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Yea we all know what an ULL can do so the fact that the heart of the storm is generating those totals is a good sign
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Nope. Only goes to 4 pm and there’s a dry slot over CLT but here’s 2 pm.
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Yea HRRR definitely impressive. Flips CLT over to a mix at 11 tonight and never flips it back. Keeps the line much further south. Big model battle going on.
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First animation has 850 temps.
