GunBlade

Miserable cold rain here.

NW trend has not been our friend this year so guess I’ll bank on the SE trend and go all in on the storm the GFS is showing at the end of its run

Being in the SE, seems like there’s rarely better snow than what a good ULL rolling through generates. As long as it’s passing south of you. Their dynamics result in amazing rates with nice big flakes that add up fast.

I’m only a couple miles from CLT and woke up to snow covered ground. Can’t call a bust before the modeled snow even arrives.

The point isn’t the totals or what the models say right now. It’s the fact that so many people were hoping for that band to give them a chance and then complained about rain and temps 4 hours before it’s supposed to form. Also, the models don’t show most of the precip falling right now so who knows what to believe anymore.

Funny how a little rain makes everyone forget what the models actually showed. The meso band some of us have been hoping to give us an inch or two hasn’t even formed yet and wasn’t supposed to until around midnight or later.

Way too much southern energy being strung out and left behind. That’s why the phase is occurring so late and weak.

Canadian had a little better phase as well. Little stronger and further west. The ridge out west has been strengthening too the past few model runs.

Is that the Chrysler Jeep Dodge and Ram dealership across the street? If so, our good friends live less than a mile down the road off of Amos Bridges Rd and Waters Edge Dr.

The point being is that the low that forms is not way east OTS. Yes the low is weaker because the phase is weaker and is why the NE misses out.

That isn't the LP that forms from the phase in the 18z run. This run was a little slower and weaker so you have to go out a couple more frames for the LP that forms.

Ouch....

Canadian looking alot like GFS so far. See how it plays out.

Exactly. We (CLT) would really need this to be neutral or negative at hour 60 when that low is off the coast of SC to get us in the NW precip shield and allow it to bomb out by the time it is to the NC coast. That causes issues for eastern NC early in the event, but they still do well as the low is passing them.

The GFS looks good overall and the low forms in a good location. It’s just that southern energy is so strung out from being held back that there’s not enough juice in the atmosphere to get the precip really going until it’s too late for most.