mattb65

Choosing to retire from the NFL and forgo millions of dollars rather than get a vaccine, this is the hill and issue Cole Beasley wants to plant his flag on, what a world we live in... https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/19/us/cole-beasley-nfl-retire-covid-vaccine/index.html

10,938 - if he was doing daily updates we'd probably dip below 10k on Monday or Tuesday next week. It's down to 12,639 today on Worldometers so a rough estimate on the 50 states would be to subtract 1500-1700 from worldometers. Average vaccinations have also bounced up quite a bit in the last couple weeks too, probably not enough to get to 70% by July 4th but it'll be close. https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/ Daily average up to 1.36 mil from 936k 2 weeks ago.

I thought we'd get to 10k by tomorrow but looks like it'll probably be some time next week because it looks like the pace of the decline has leveled off in some areas. Without the daily twitter updates and with the holiday lag it's hard to tell for sure. The lawyer craig weekly numbers will come out tomorrow and I think they'll probably be 11k-12k. Worldometers is down below 13k for the first time so we're still gradually getting there... As you mentioned it doesn't decline linearly, it follows exponential decay or half lives. 50% decline from 30K is lot - down by 15k but 50% of 15k is only 7.5k and then 3.75k so it'll naturally level off at some point.

It's unbelievable that the person chose to ruin his life and another person's life over something so trivial. Incredibly sad. It's like these road rage incidents, these people must have barely any control over their emotions or feel nearly no value in their own life and in others' lives.

The more transmissible variants will always eventually become the dominant strain, it's just a matter of time. That's just evolutionary biology, the hand wringing about each variant is a little tiresome for me tbh. More a question of how much of an impact it'll have which depends on the level of immunity present. We probably have more than 60% population immunity from vax and prior infection in most places which will significantly keep things contained.

We'll see, I think the hospital is gong to win this one, the law is on their side. In first federal ruling on vaccine mandates, judge sides with Houston hospital, dismissing claims from staff resisters https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/7672997002

Vaccine mandates are coming. I'm curious how this will resolve itself especially with the Texas governor putting in place policies that effectively enable anti-vax individuals. 178 health care workers suspended from Houston Methodist hospital system for refusing COVID-19 vaccination https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/7616446002 Important to note that this is 178 out of 25,000 employees.

If rather not take my chances. Risk is lower for young healthy people obviously but the vaccine risk is basically nil. So when it comes to deciding on getting the vaccine vs even a miniscule risk of ED or all the other bad things covid can do, it's a no brainer for me.

Did you know that covid infection has been associated with an increased risk of erectile dysfunction? Still rather test your luck by not getting the vaccine? "Just a few days of sniffles"... and a floppy https://health.clevelandclinic.org/yes-covid-19-can-cause-erectile-dysfunction/

See, the 10k bet wouldn't matter, I knew the thread would die this summer. No doubt in my mind we go sub 10k by July 1, only question is will the thread still be open.

He's the kind of person that needs a lottery ticket or similar incentive, completely unable to parse out the relative risks and benefits involved. Also no consideration for others, even if he individually may be low risk, getting the vaccine so that be doesn't accidentally pass it on to someone else doesn't appear to be in the equation. If nothing else jonger, please get vaccinated so that I can get a free beer on July 4th.

I'm not entirely sure I understand your first concern. He seemed to be pretty cautious throughout the crisis about how easily it can be spread. There were lots of debates and confusion about symptomatic vs asymptomatic spread early on and persisting through most of 2020. He admitted publicly multiple times that this virus ended up being far worse than he initially expected. There is tons of asymptomatic or presymptomatic spread of this virus, it's one of the big challenges in containing it. On the second point, he still thinks it's more likely animal to human. I can understand the frustration especially since the lab origin was heavily politicized. There was a scientific push possibly with some questionable motives to push the animal to human origin. You can see some suspicious stuff in the links I posted. I'm still not convinced, I'm also not sure if fauci is the one to blame and think the conservative media frenzy on the emails is a huge overreaction.

I'm not going to argue that obesity is a risk factor for bad outcomes in covid but your presentation of the data here is ridiculous and not even close to factual. 1. Your top 10 deaths are not ranked per capita as you claim look at India 12 per 100k vs US 170 per 100k. 2. Your top 10 most obese countries has no source, where are you pulling that list from? The rate of obesity in India is 3.90% how are they 3rd on your list????? They are among the least obese countries in the world on a per capita basis. https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/most-obese-countries Edit: in fact many of the most obese countries in the world - Samoa and Marshall islands had no covid cases. In terms if large non island nations that are most obese per capita. From worldometers US #1 with 36% obese is 18th in covid deaths per capita Saudi Arabia #2 with 35% obese is 111th in covid deaths per capita Turkey #3 with 32% obese is 74th in covid deaths per capita Egypt #4 with 32% obese is 124th in covid deaths per capita I could go on but you get the point. This looks like a huge #JongerFail

We have a vaccine that protects against Spanish flu in addition to the more harmful flu variants that have emerged. We may soon have a global flu vaccine that comes close to eradicating flu. I think we have a chance to keep covid as a minor virus going forward with a global effort. I think r are making moves in the right direction. I'm glad to hear you're not anti vaccine, I take back the knuckle dragger comment. I don't know why, I know from his fb posts a few years back that he liked Trump but I can only speculate.

Stopping transmission of the virus stops the mutations and reduces the chance for an escape variant. The vaccines stop transmission, this has been conclusively proven in the real world. You dont need to drag your knuckles here, human ingenuity has given us the tools to win this fight. Globally we're at 35 million vaccinations per day, we're 9 months away from 75% immunized globally. I agree life comes with risk but it's just plain stupidity to purposely increase risk when you have an easy way to mitigate the risk. My buddy James from New England caught covid a few weeks ago, he was 31 years old, he suffered overwhelming multi organ failure and died. He didn't have to die.

Lawyer Craig on twitter but I bet worldometers will also go below 10k shortly afterwards

I didn't think the 7 day average would be below 15k cases on June 2nd though I think some of that is an artifact of the holiday weekend. I bet it will stall for the next week and then dip below 10k the week of the 14th although I'd love to be wrong and have cases just continue to drop sharply.

I haven't seen anything too concerning about his emails but may not be up to speed on everything. Having said that the lab leak concern is definitely increasing in likelihood based on the information I'm reading. Unfortunately I doubt there will be a smoking gun because much has been destroyed or covered up by China plus the soule to find reliable information is especially difficult. Here are some articles I've found to be interesting. https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-how-amateur-sleuths-broke-wuhan-lab-story-embarrassed-media-1596958 https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/

Just like the flu except 3-4x more transmissible and 10x more lethal. Otherwise, same same. Good point Jonger.

More of a reason to be resentful. Getting vaccinated is a much easier life change than changing from an unhealthy lifestyle to a healthy one. In the former you need to take a short amount of your day, endure a minor pain in the arm and maybe a couple days of feeling yucky. In the latter it's often an every day struggle and often comes with a lifetime of baggage for why someone has become unhealthy that needs to change.

I'm pretty optimistic that we'll get below 5,000. It's obviously not going to be eradicated and I'm not sure how low we'll get, if I had to guess I think it will probably nadir somewhere around a 7 day average of 1,500-2,000 cases per day this summer and then rise a bit in late summer/early fall. I wonder when the case counts will stop being tracked on a regular basis.

It's a little ironic, the vaccines work precisely because medical science has developed an understanding of the biology of the immune system and has found ways to utilize the immune system to protect against pathogens without having a person chance getting the full effects of the illnesses caused by the pathogens. These my immune system is great should think about how things were just 200 years ago when small pox, polio, measles and other deadly viruses were running rampant.

Sub 10k 7 day average case count by July 1st is still on track. We are at just one 20k cases and continue to cut cases in half approximately every 3 weeks or faster. I'm thinking we go below 10k cases around June 18th.

Gut wrenching, I feel so bad for his sister and their whole family.

Just want to add my condolences, his posts were always a highlight when I lived in Boston, it didn't matter if it was a chance for something tropical or snow he was always optimistic to the bitter end and extremely enthusiastic for everyone even if he was stuck in the pouring rain while everyone else was getting buried. RIP James