Newman

Euro is quite a paint job for the Lehigh Valley

Dad said we got about 3.2" in Fleetwood. Happy for y'all further south towards Philly, its been a long time coming! Made me smile seeing Philly come in with 5"

NWS WWA for 2-4" seems right. Most will probably see 1.5-2.5". Max around 4 or perhaps 5+

We got down to -30° at the Laramie airport last night, the coldest temperature since January 2017 here when it got to -40. Driving around outside town in the Laramie Valley the car thermometer read -40°

Meanwhile out here in Siberia, I mean Laramie WY, the airport got down to -30° last night and driving around outside town my car read -40°. That's not wind chill, but actual air temperature! Certainly have never felt such cold air before in my life living in Pennsylvania

My folk said we got about 3.5" back in Fleetwood

NWS upgraded the NW burbs WWA to 3-5" on the latest forecast package. If the NAM is to be believed, there could be an iso 6"+ in there across Berks or the Lehigh Valley. Depends if we get some good banding to set up across that area, otherwise i don't think rates or snow growth will be spectacular. Snow comes in around 7-9pm, gone by 10-11am on the NAM. That's a solid 14-16 hours of snow. But, we won't be seeing consistent 1" hour rates or something.

0z ICON (yeah Icon i know) is really solid for NW burbs. 4-6" for all of Berks and the Lehigh Valley

GFS brings 1-3" back to the general Mount Holly CWA, those NW of 95. It's been clear looking at upper levels that were trending back towards a light advisory event. The 250mb jet continues to improve in orientation

We made it down to -15 in Laramie this morning, wind chill of -37. Expecting another 2-5" in town with the next few waves/impulses in the flow tonight and tomorrow night

Heard rumors that they might be moving the game to Cleveland? Would be a bummer, though I also can't imagine the logistical nightmare of trying to get a sell out playoff crowd out of a stadium with roads impassable

The RGEM comes in cooler as well, following the NAMs. Again, there was a very slight shift south with the 850mb low, but each mile matters as the rain-snow line battle will be a real one. Below is a sounding from the RGEM for tomorrow evening in eastern Berks county 0z UTC. Between 21z and 3z (so like 4pm-10pm) is when much of the NW burbs will see their best snow growth. After that, rates will drop off. Certainly not extremely "unstable", but the mid-levels do have pretty steep lapse rates and that will aid in dynamics. Between 4pm-7pm the RGEM has a solid 700mb fronto band push through. This is that initial "thump" that many will be relying on.

I do, hence why I'm even in this forum posting about a snowstorm I won't be experiencing lol.

Storms like this make me glad I didn't choose to go the forecasting route

The 850s are held more at bay on the NAM, aided by the mid-level circulation passage coming in a bit further south this go around. Yes just pointing it out.

And the 18z NAM coming in cooler with the thermals

Mount Holly just re-issued the WWA for Berks, Lehigh, Hunterdon as 3-6" now

Winter weather advisory for Berks and Lehigh, 3-5". Honestly surprised NWS went that high, was expecting 2-4

GFS is definitely better than it's 18z run. Canadian better for most than it's 12z run. Overall, things look a lot more juiced up on everything

Yeah the FV3 is warm, it honestly looks pretty reasonable

Probably the best combo of the 12k and 3k nam runs we've had yet, too good haha

The 2nd vort CCB is starting to become more real, it might end up being the main show if we see the trend continue. Like I said those NW would get a few inches on the first thump. Probably 3-4". Then we wait for the next show to drop 3-5" Sunday morning

That's a proper NAM'ing for NYC right there on the 2nd vort CCB

NAM gonna focus on that 2nd shortwave. Verbatim it's cold for most NW of 95 on the initial thump, a general 3-5". Then we rain and snizzle through the night until Sunday morning. A CCB starts to crank and we pound

Agree, we're in that time frame where you might expect a wonky NAM run in a good way