Newman

And the 18z NAM coming in cooler with the thermals

Mount Holly just re-issued the WWA for Berks, Lehigh, Hunterdon as 3-6" now

Winter weather advisory for Berks and Lehigh, 3-5". Honestly surprised NWS went that high, was expecting 2-4

GFS is definitely better than it's 18z run. Canadian better for most than it's 12z run. Overall, things look a lot more juiced up on everything

Yeah the FV3 is warm, it honestly looks pretty reasonable

Probably the best combo of the 12k and 3k nam runs we've had yet, too good haha

The 2nd vort CCB is starting to become more real, it might end up being the main show if we see the trend continue. Like I said those NW would get a few inches on the first thump. Probably 3-4". Then we wait for the next show to drop 3-5" Sunday morning

That's a proper NAM'ing for NYC right there on the 2nd vort CCB

NAM gonna focus on that 2nd shortwave. Verbatim it's cold for most NW of 95 on the initial thump, a general 3-5". Then we rain and snizzle through the night until Sunday morning. A CCB starts to crank and we pound

Agree, we're in that time frame where you might expect a wonky NAM run in a good way

Can see where the Euro paints that deform band Sunday on it's 6 hour snowfall (not to be taken literally, just as where the deform band was geographically). Overall, a slight nod to the GFS with snows through Sunday. A very solid run for those NW, especially Berks and the Lehigh Valley

Verbatim on the GFS, the Pats game at 1 and Giants game at 4:30 would be fun on Sunday

The Canadian has also trended the way of the GFS, that 2nd vort catching up. It's not fully there yet, further north of a close off compared to the GFS. But we'll see if this trend continues into the evening and overnight suites

We'll see if other models start to move towards this more, but the GFS opens another can of worms with the evolution of this storm

GFS just did exactly what I was talking about with that follow up vort, just a little too far east. The CCB gets cranking

^That time for the gif I posted, yes you could argue it's already after the initial thump which it is. But we have that 2nd vort swinging through now on guidance and it would sure be nice for the mid-levels to still be cold enough when that happens to snow an additional inch or two on that passage. That second vort attempts to wrap up and bring in some cold air on the backside, but there's so much energy crashing into the west coast reducing any chance for amplification. It's a New England special, and an interior one at that

12z NAM is a touch warmer unfortunately compared to 6z. Still a nice 6 hour thump for the LHV

I knew this thing would trend north, but honestly not THIS much. Definitely have to temper expectations. I still think it'll move back south a bit, but really only benefitting places like the LHV. I guess we'll see, congrats New England

Euro just went way NW

Ukmet definitely cut back for max totals west of 95, QPF a bit less. General 6-10" swath. DC would be marginal

Over the years living in PA, I slowly became a HECS chaser to be honest, especially after Jan 2016 and Jan/Feb 2021. Storms like the one coming up wouldn't typically excite me. But it's been a long time coming and my pops loves snow and wants this one badly. I'm excited for y'all, I'm flying back literally Saturday morning so I'll be missing it

If you've been doing this long enough, you know the Canadian always always always has an overamped bias and puts down more QPF than feasible (in most cases). The 12z CMC is a shallacking for those NW of 95, but the 12+ totals seem suspect. The storm is literally in and out in 10-12 hours. Yes, I've seen quick moving thump and dump storms consistently average 1 inch hour rates for the duration of the storm. Can't remember which events, but I've seen it during my times in PA. If the Canadian were to come to fruition, I'd imagine there would be some 10" lollis NW of 95. But this isn't a slow moving transfer storm. Again, if you're NW of 95 I'd be expecting a solid accumulating wet snowfall. Those furthest NW and into central PA will have the jack

The entire evolution of this storm has obviously changed since just a few days ago, everyone can see that. It'll be a quick thump of snow for 6-8 hours probably Saturday night. I think that bodes for max amounts around 6-8", unless we see a change as we get closer. Still sticking with my first call that the lollipop max is northern Berks up through the Poconos for our CWA. Not a trivial forecast, climo basically

6z RGEM at the end of its runtime, sticking close to its global counterpart. The NAM... just don't look at it unless you want disappointment