Newman

This could be one interesting evening. The discrete supercells moving in a SE motion will only help with rotation.

The hail threat today across PA is not going to be one to overlook! Already a storm warned for baseball sized hail: Destructive, baseball-size hail and wind gusts to 70 mph.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

Tornado watch has been issued: * Tornado Watch for portions of Western New Jersey Extreme east central Ohio Pennsylvania The extreme northern West Virginia Panhandle * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon from Ohio into Pennsylvania, and storms will spread generally eastward through this evening. The storm environment will be favorable for supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. A more favorable environment for tornadoes is expected across northern and eastern Pennsylvania into western New Jersey as the low levels destabilize.

RAP supercell composite is nuts for our area later. Just need the sun to come out and I'll believe this:

Really the only wild card seems to be how well we recover from this morning rain and cloud cover for todays severe threat. Mount Holly continues to become more and more concerned on their 8am update: Additionally, given the fairly quick movement of the line of showers/storms, concern continues to increase that the post-storm environment will quickly recover/destabilize to support a potentially significant severe threat this afternoon/evening, especially south of I-78.

Really the only wild card seems to be how well we recover from this morning rain and cloud cover for today's severe threat. Mount Holly continues to become more and more concerned on their 8am update: Additionally, given the fairly quick movement of the line of showers/storms, concern continues to increase that the post-storm environment will quickly recover/destabilize to support a potentially significant severe threat this afternoon/evening, especially south of I-78.

The cell passing through Johnstown and the other one SW of State College look dangerous. Definitely rotation on both and both look like supercells. Heads up Central PA folk.

HRRR agrees with the WWA issued as well.

WWA across SE PA for 2-4". 18z NAM agrees.

Euro:

12k NAM Kuchera, which I think is more reliable in this case with the warmth aloft.

I think the I-95 area will battle sleet and rain for the most part, although it's close. There's clearly a warm layer up top. For those 30 miles or so NW of Philly, it's going to likely be a wet isothermal bomb. However, if the I-95 area can cool the column enough, they could easily see a wet paste job. Temps are very marginal and it'll come down to snow rates and dynamic cooling aloft.

A lot of times every model can be wrong with the northern extent of the precip shield. Sometimes the radar day of will give you an idea if there's any fighting chance. However, the NW confluent flow is likely going to eat up the northern shield, and if it doesnt, dry air and virga will be an issue with little forcing. I'm pulling for you guys in DC.

12z RGEM:

The ICON gets the outer precip just to DC:

Just gonna say that the GFS isn't going to budge at this range. It's going to stay locked in where it's at. Shorter range, high resolution models will be the first to pick up on any real changes at this range and, if trends go favorably, the GFS still won't budge until 24 hours out.

Could Someone explain why Greenland ice is at a record level with regards to surface mass balance? If there is any sign for this to decrease and get back to normal levels, what is it?