Newman

I've just started to look towards what this winter may deliver, and 2003-04 seems like a strong analog. It was coming off a prior El Nino winter, it was mainly weak Nino/Neutral during the winter, it had a positive PDO, positive AMO, and low solar activity. However, the summer of 2003 transitioned into a neutral phase much quicker than what is currently forecasted for this summer/fall/winter. I would throw in 2004-05 in case we remain more El Nino, rather than completely neutral. I like 2004's QBO transition into winter as well. It's much better than 2003 and it's close to what I think we could see this winter. A later transition of the QBO could yield later stratospheric impacts deep into winter (February and March, but things like that are fickle and require other variables to look at). 2004-05 also had a warm Atlantic and low solar, but not as warm of a Pacific. 1966-67 is a solid analog with regards to the positive ONI values maintaining closer toward fall/winter. And in case we go more Nina/neutral, it's even greater. That's what I see right now at least.

The 12z OKX sounding shows a CAP value of 5.6. Gonna need some strong daytime heating to overcome that. It'll take some time.

Models completely missed this convection. Even the new 0z NAM didn't initialize correctly. Getting pounded with heavy rain and lightning currently. I mean, like wow this is a total whiff on all the models, especially the CAMs.

Convection really beginning to fire up. Flash flood and Severe Thunderstorm warning here.

Some isolated thunderstorms are popping up in PA as many places are beginning to reach their convective temperatures. Any of these storms could be capable of becoming strong with CAPE values nearing 5000 j/kg, the LI nearing -10, and mid-level/low level lapse rates plenty high enough. There is enough of a cap to limit too many storms.

My station says a heat index of 116 and I don't doubt it (might be 3 degrees or so high). The official Reading airport station says a heat index of 110.

92/78/108 in Fleetwood. According to 1pm obs across the Mount Holly CWA, the Reading/Berks County areas are the hottest due to the highest combination of temperature and dew point.

So much lightning and flooding rain in that line. Not much wind where I was but still a good storm.

tornado warning on the line heading toward Philly

Also have a slight risk for parts of the area today. Main threats today will be flooding rain with PWATs nearing 2 inches and a localized wet downburst threat with the heavy rain.

Temperature is already up to 90 and heat index is 105. I don't even want to know how bad Saturday is going to be.

Umm, wow. Just went on Berks Fire Alerts facebook page and found this posted only 1 minute ago: ***Delayed Post - 10 Min*** Douglass Twp: Grist Mill Rd IAO Locust Dr - WATER RESCUE - Occupied Vehicle stuck in multiple feet of water - 2 pediatric patients, 1 pregnant female - Marine 16 E/R M07 Fire Alerts of Berks County VEHICLE NOW TAKEN AWAY BY THE WATER; VEHICLE FLIPPED OVER AND IS TRAVELING RAPIDLY M07 1 3m Fire Alerts of Berks County Vehicle rocking; in multiple feet of water; water is very rapid Chief 16 doesn’t feel confident w/ committing his Marine unit due to the rapid changing conditions with the water Water is now up to the steering wheel M07

Some pretty bad flooding going on in southern Lehigh and Berks Counties.

Wow I didn't get any pictures but that line rolling through is perfect for some shelf cloud pictures.

Those storms rolling in from the west will at the minimum bring really heavy rains.

Storms coming in from the west forming a nice bowing line segment. Much of the area should be impacted through the rest of the afternoon, especially the further west you go.

Parts of Berks have picked up over 4" of rain in the past 24 hours. South of Philly and into NJ even more.

Wow was just chasing that storm and caught these stones. Nearly 2", maybe bigger! I should've kept chasing it but honestly I couldn't keep up with the Allentown traffic lol

Which cell? lol There's two more heading SE towards our area. Both aren't tornado warned but have rotation.

You might get cored. It appears to be slightly weakening at least. But still the T-storm warning is for ping pong ball sized hail.

Yeah decent rotation and a nice hail core. Should bear down on western Berks soon. Get ready!