Newman

13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Death band only 10 miles wide at best has been centered over my area since 6AM. Just went in the field and measured 3.1" on the snowboard. Still sn- nothing heavy but adding small increments to what has already accumulated. 2nd largest snowfall of the season no complaints here.

Hey Ralphie, can we make this thread the one and only thread for the weekend events? I think it would be better if we just had one thread to stick with, as long as people specify what storms their talking about, etc.

12k NAM Kuchera, which I think is more reliable in this case with the warmth aloft.

I think the I-95 area will battle sleet and rain for the most part, although it's close. There's clearly a warm layer up top. For those 30 miles or so NW of Philly, it's going to likely be a wet isothermal bomb. However, if the I-95 area can cool the column enough, they could easily see a wet paste job. Temps are very marginal and it'll come down to snow rates and dynamic cooling aloft. 

16 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

What did u end up with out there? I had 2.75 when I headed out about 5:30 

2" here. Was just a little too far north to get into the heaviest bands.

Long range HRRR 

Measured 2 inches here. Up to a little over 23" on the season. I could very well get to normal after this weekend.

1 minute ago, KamuSnow said:

Might be a little rainy tonight down here in extreme SE PA but looks good up your way.

Yeah the I-95 area should start as rain and maybe turn to some snow as it ends. But even up here the snow should be fairly wet. I'm expecting 2 maybe 3 inches not 6 inches like the NAM shows lol.

3k NAM Saturday event

Things look flatter and colder. Good. I don't need a 10"+ storm. Just a 4-6" ALL SNOW event will suffice.

And just to be clear, I don't think anyone will see as much snow as the NAM shows, but it's still exciting to be tracking something for once lol

WOW. This is just the Saturday system on the NAM. I'm telling ya, these systems that sneak up on you are sometimes better than the long tracked HECS.

Wow the Saturday coastal came out of nowhere. GFS gives SNE well over 6". I think parts of our area could see some snow from that as well, would lean towards the coast.

18z NAM 

With almost all guidance showing 1-2" here in Berks, I'm fairly confident for some minor accumulations tomorrow morning. Philly area could see 2-3".

Measured .35" of ice on some branches this morning. Definitely the most ice I've seen in a while.

Not the best picture but there's a decent amount of ice out there!

.25" of ice accretion. 

Measured .15" of ice accretion already outside from the light freezing drizzle all afternoon. Treated roads are slushy but still very slippery. My front porch that isn't treated is an icy death trap.

MD from SPC:

New MD from SPC:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0117.html

My call like a month ago saying I wasn't worried getting to normal snowfall has been thrown out the window. I need nearly 10" more and I just don't see it. Maybe a 6" storm tops in early March but it'll be too little too late.