Newman

Puking snow under these heavier returns

Latest HRRR actually gives us 3 or 4" on the backside of this once the dry slot passes

I think I'm gonna underperform here. Maybe 6-8". But definitely not flurries right now. Flakes aren't massive, but still coming down heavy.

Believe me, the problem for you and I won't be sleet. It's gonna be precip shutting off with that dry slot in VA racing NE already. Still heavy snow here, heavier radar returns making their way north into Berks.

50 DBZ radar returns heading into Philly with the sleet line still to the south.

Heavy snow. Dumping. Gotta get in as much as I can up here before any mixing/dry slot.

Roads are horrible in Exeter Township up here in Berks. That's where I work and took an hour to drive home to Fleetwood. Coming down very very nicely at home.

Whoa didn't even see the mention of thundersnow until you pointed it out! I like 10-14". Closer to 8" if more sleet than expected. Closer to 16" if it ends up staying mostly snow. We shall see. I'm at work now, not gonna be fun driving home at 6pm.

25/15 with the smell of pre-mature radar hallucinations in the air

I've kinda just accepted the fact this won't be as high end as some of those ridiculous models days ago. 10-14" for up here is the call. I'm really hoping to get double digits at least.

The RGEM at hr 30 shows heavy sleet for Lanco with this sounding. Razor thin from being all snow

3k NAM is dreadfully close for Berks and the LV now. Shifted a tad south and a bit east. Keeps the pivot point right around Harrisburg. So Lebanon, Dauphin, Schuylkill counties rake in 2 feet while Berks and Lehigh are fighting the sleet and dry slot. Oh how its going to be so close.

3k NAM crushes Harrisburg. Huge thump in the WAA, fights off any dry slot and sleet being just north enough, and practically is the pivot point when the storm begins to move east.

I know it's really late in the game for ensembles, but the 18z GEFS are much better than 12z

18z GFS agrees with the NAMs, stops the NW trend. Basically the same as 12z, perhaps a tad better in some areas, a tad worse in others.

I have work Thursday morning, but I guess I'll be pulling an all-nighter anyway to get the most accurate measurements

18z NAM says NW folk don't jump off the cliff yet. Came back SE. One or two more bumps like that at 0z and 6z and Philly is in good shape. A big thing to look for is how quick the low escapes east. It'll drag the warm layer/dry slot with it and you'll limit any time before the CCB pulls through. 12z: 18z: Great improvement. And I know people will bash Kuchera, but it will excel in cases like this. It won't count sleet as snow. See the 12z map and how low the totals are in SE PA? That's because the Kuchera map takes into account sleet. Much less at 18z.

CAD isn't the problem here nut, it's the mid-level low passes and the surface low. Take a look at the 700mb low that passes over us/to our north. We dry slot and turn to sleet in cases like that. It's inevitable. Plus models have the surface low tucking into freaking NJ now. The strong 1040 HP will do it's dirty work trying to keep the low level cold in place. But the 500mb trying to close off and pull the surface with it is gonna turn this into a Central and Northern PA special. You might be ever-so-slightly in a better place than I am being a bit further west. Might be able to escape the dry slot and sleet a bit longer plus cash in on the backside CCB a bit better. (BTW, I'm in my home location in Berks county, not at Millersville for school currently winter break.)

Continues to shift NW with the other models. Let's see what the Euro and CMC do. The problem is I've seen this story before go both ways. This could trend back SE at the last moment, or it could keep shifting NW and more amped. I just don't have a good taste in my mouth with this one. Screams warm nose and dry slot with those mid-level low passes and a tucked surface low into NY Harbor.

All of these 12z models take the mix/sleet all the way up into Berks/LV and a nice dry slot as well. Oh well. Honestly expecting 6-10" now after every single model run the past week giving me 15+". And those 6-10" will mostly come in the initial WAA thump, then sleet and dry slot, then maybe eek out some backside CCB love. It's gonna feel more like a SWFE compared to the initial look of a Miller B/C. Feel for you Philly and Jersey folk, long winter ahead. Lets hope we can turn this around in the next 24 hours. Otherwise, on to the next...

I kid you not, there's a cluster of 6z EPS members inland Jersey and into NYC

The problem really isn't the CAD, the surface high in Canada is still strong. The problem is we have the upper level lows passing well to our north now. Like here on the RGEM. When the 700mb low passes north of you through eastern PA, we're all gonna dry slot or turn to sleet.

Unless we see these meso models shift the banding back south, I don't see the 18-24" range verifying this far south. Insane forecast by NWS, I still can't get over it. I want it to verify dearly, but I can't get myself to believe it with the 0z and 6z push north.

March 2017 all over again. But seriously, Mt Holly calling for 20-24" of snow up this way which just seems extremely aggressive. There isn't any guidance at 6z showing nearly that much. The warm push is gonna turn much of SE PA to sleet or a dry slot if it holds as depicted. I'm gonna stick with my call I gave much of my family: 10-14" up here. Still 36 more hours until the storm, this can shift back south but I'm not gonna hold my breath

Models have this coming in around 2-5pm Wednesday and leaving by 4-7am Thursday. That's as of now, we'll see how things keep trending