Newman

Just saw that since a month ago October 18th, KRDG has only seen 0.21" of precip and since November 1st, 0.01" which just happened last night before midnight. That number will go up as I'm sure more fell after midnight. But I was unaware of the extremely dry late fall SE PA has seen. Similarly, we haven't seen any measurable precip since October 28th, but then again that's to be expected out here.

I haven't been following along with winter forecasts and what not, been too busy with grad school. But I'd imagine things are going to be much much different this winter compared to last. A more busy STJ is hopefully in the cards with El Nino in place. The question is... how much has the atmosphere responded to this huge SST change and how much lingering Nina effects are there?

Not sure exactly how much Estes Park got, but we lost power this morning at the cabin we're staying at for a few hours. Probably 8-10" range total. Had like 3-4" yesterday and 5-7" overnight

I'll be in Estes Park for the weekend, NWS calling for 6-8 which sounds reasonable. Probably won't be going up into RMNP sadly. Denver looking like 8-12

26 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m actually shocked and appalled by the lack of coverage of this, soon to be, humanitarian crisis. This was the big one, for Mexico.

You hear nothing on the big news stations except the Maine and Israel situations. Mind you, those are big news stories in and of themselves. But this is a huge natural disaster just south of us and there's NO coverage at all. The images and videos coming out are just insane

Just checked and Acapulco has an estimated population of over 1 million people in 2023. For reference, there's only 9 cities in the US with a higher population. This is bad. Just incredible RI

We received our first snow of the season this evening out here in SE Wyoming. About 2" or so in the grass, very pretty and already more than I saw the entirety of last winter in SE PA. Rooting for a blockbuster winter for y'all back east, I'll be back in PA for 3 weeks in Dec-Jan and hoping for some snow during that time!

Ended up with about 1.5-2" on UW campus, most if not all of that coming this evening with the wrap around trowel. 

First snow of the season here in Laramie. Coming down nicely with a coating on grass and cars. Still too warm for any stickage on roads. Some decent accums up in the Snowies

5 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

Some of us outside the mountains may see our first snow of the year late week.

Yeah, Cheyenne is sounding confident in snow levels dropping fairly low up here for Thursday. The Snowies should see 10+" though. Laramie should see some accumulation

The 12z Canadian is pretty wet for the Mid-Atlantic this weekend

The lean is almost entirely on the SW side of the envelope of solutions 

GEFS should follow suit with the op run, to no surprise. Through hr48 already slower and the trough is lifting out/less interaction with Lee

Boston College playing #3 FSU at home at 12 on Saturday lol

That was a huge shift SW on the GFS, will be super interesting to see the ensemble members

I wouldn't even want to get hit by whatever Lee is right now. Looks like crap 

There are some big time western members on the 0z GEFS. Legit one tries to skirt North Carolina. Can't call anything a trend yet with regards to MSLP position really, but you can sure see the ridge over far eastern Canada (around Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, etc) trending stronger on the GEFS each subsequent run. Will be interested to see the spaghetti tracks for the ensembles

Also to note, some of the more southwest ensemble members are there because of timing differences. There's a few members that get Lee essentially "stuck" in the northern Bahamas until the ridge moves out and it goes OTS. So a more W or SW member doesn't necessarily equate to a NE hit.

And the GEFS have quite a strong SW lean down in the Bahamas compared to the 18z run previously

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yup. Just look at the GFS trend the last two days. Speaking broadly, if the deterministic Euro is a western outlier and GFS eastern outlier, this is a pretty substantial Atlantic Canada threat at range.

However, if you’re looking at the synoptics, that ridge is continuing to trend stronger across guidance in the longer range and the trough while still all over the place is looking less like a full blown kicker.

I don’t really care about the imby stuff yet, but I think it’s also becoming clearer that while a turn 70W or later would obviously increase the NE threat, it’s not necessary for an impact, if the current ridge/trough trend continues. It might not, and we should be wary of the last minute east ticks, but for now this is what we got. 

The biggest takeaway from that GFS run for me wasn't the impact location, per say. But rather we didn't see that bend/recurve OTS once past Hatteras latitude. Instead, it trucks on due north into eastern New England, similar to the Euro which moved straight north. So as you alluded to, that ridge and trough duo as currently modeled squeezes this thing due north. If you really want a strong New England impact, you'd want this trough to capture Lee, even if it's slightly, to pull it *just* a bit on a NW heading. But you take what you can get. I think y'all all know what's at stake here, and what's the likely outcome. I don't even live on the east coast anymore, but this is still an intriguing situation to follow and I'll be watching along

Say what you will, that was obviously the best looking GFS run in quite a few cycles if you're looking for a hit. Verbatim eastern Maine gets a good impact, as the extratropical transition would expand the leaf and winds on the western side

Latest update Cat 5 160mph

NWS Cheyenne mentions snowflakes at the high peaks this weekend. Point and click showing snow in the Snowies around Medicine Bow Peak for Saturday night-Monday

Atlantic Canada is a hurricane magnet recently