Newman
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Everything posted by Newman
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These western members that take it into NYC would certainly impact the Philly region. Rain shield to the west, tors and wind to the east
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Nearly 100 miles. From south of the Cape to south of the tip of Long Island
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Bingo, Berks county is in the infamous radar hole. There's been talks here at Millersville University to putting in a radar to serve the local counties for this reason. Regardless, the radar beams would not have been able to pick up on the low-level rotation when the beams shoot well above it.
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Remember that Irene dropped 3-7" of rain across much of New England and caused tremendous problems in many places, you don't need Harvey levels of rain to destroy things.
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Yes tropical rainfall is of the "warm rain" variety not the "cold rain" we typically think of in most cases. I have no idea if these numerical models take into account the differing cloud physics and precip processes that occur, so I can't speak to that. But regardless, yes it's why radar has a hard time at picking up on proper dbZ values in tropical systems
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Strongest gusts stay confined to the coast. Boston would try to gust 40-50mph. Inland just breezy but that's not to say no impacts. Flooding would be pretty bad.
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Compared to 0z, I don't think you can definitively say the 6z EPS came west (at least compared to the base mean). But certainly more spread and more members that take it further west. The loop and stall is still evident on many of the members
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Huge flashes of lightning and loud thunder here
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2230z UNK 4 E HALIFAX DAUPHIN PA MULTIPLE TREES DOWN. FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED.
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Yeah you can see on radar it's almost like a spinning comma head taking shape, a Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV). Harrisburg got punched straight with that part of the line
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My brother and friend went to chase and are in Palmyra right now, I told them to stay put the storm is almost there.
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It's almost like that line is trying to form a MCV
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Tornado warning just south of you in MD! Should stay just to your west
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New tornado warning for the tail of that line just south of Gettysburg
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Some discrete cells forming ahead of that primary line, possible brief spinups in those
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Yeah even the hefty 970some millibar HWRF would become unimpressive (wind wise) for those in SNE. Too slow and too much decay. In 18 hours, verbatim, it practically goes from a nicely stacked borderline CAT 2/3 cane to a slow moving, decaying TS/Low end Cat 1. Sure flooding would be bad for where it stalls, maybe horrific in spots. But if you're looking for 1938 type winds, well that was booking almost 50mph forward speed and this ain't that.
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The Euro practically has an open wave at this latitude compared to the NHC forecast, GFS, UKMET, CMC which at least have some semblance of a tropical/extratropical system.
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Euro still isn't initializing Henri correctly. Still only shows it as a 1011mb low pressure compared to the GFS which correctly initializes ~996mb
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Central PA, I'm well out of this. I'm tracking this and rooting for you guys
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Clear trend west. Some members even take this into Jersey now
