Newman

10:1 ratios are still nearly 5" into Philly

Saturday/Sunday on the Euro

Total Euro QPF

GFS nice out here with Kuchera (if we are to believe ratios will be higher). 4-6" in South Central PA

GFS says I'll surpass 60" on the season by this time next week

3.5" in Fleetwood. Elevation helped out with accumulation. Season total now at 44.5"

Long range HRRRRRR

3k NAM says 16" in Philly (at 10:1 ratio)

NAM is a monster hit for most.

1.5" of snow in Fleetwood this morning. Now just a mist/flurries.

3k NAM would be a good hit

Yep, upper levels plenty cold. But surface is verbatim 32-33. Maybe it drops to 29-30 in the heaviest rates/those further NW. But we probably thump heavy snow 5-8"

Much more favorable upper jet, like substantially better. Puts us in the right entrance region.

There it is

Just an example of the model shifts NW we're seeing

GEFS came significantly further west for the Super Bowl Storm

The threat to watch out for is around Feb 13-15. @Wentzadelphia, take a look at the Para-GFS. It tries to pull a 96' with the vortex escaping into the 50/50 region, and a PNA spike bringing down another piece of energy that closes off in the center of the country. The only problem with this 12z run was it amps up way too early. Regardless, I'm on board with your February 10-17 call. It'll likely be centered around the 14th or 15th..

Anytime you get over 18" you'll start mixing reports of people who use the "clean-the-board" method and those who just measure directly on the ground. That can inflate or deflate totals substantially, especially places like KABE where it was over 2 feet. Either way, 26" was the final here. 39" on the season

I am 100% on page with you on this overall progression. The Jan 2-4 1996 storm was an inland storm because the vortex was a bit further north than the Euro currently has it for this weekend storm. But regardless, you relax the block, allow the vortex to slip east into the 50/50 region, and you have another shot for something to roll under. I don't think the vortex moves out as quickly as 96' did. But the Feb 12-17 period certainly has potential. Beforehand, we can still cash in on some waves to roll under, most likely suppressed, with the vortex pushing into the US.

Yes, but the EPS agrees with the OP as of now

All depends on the placement of the PV in Canada. Too far east and it squashes heights on the EC. Too far west and you risk it running up too far inland.