Newman

Read the key, totals are in *centimeters* because apparently that's how we measure snow now lol. I thought it was a joke too. Snowing nicely in Millersville, probably only around 2" just eyeballing

School, classes, life is busy haha. Plus I had a date last night. So unfortunately no model checking during that time. Plus my crazy ex gf won't leave me alone, thinking about a restraining order.... anyway, I think a general 4-8" followed by a lull and then some sleet or ice is the forecast. Possibly lollis to 10 somewhere.

HRRR came in much warmer btw

10 years since the last Ice Storm Warning from Mt Holly... unreal

Ice storm warning for those NW

Most of the individual HREF short range models paint at least 0.5" of ice across Berks and the Lehigh Valley. Remember, the freezing rain accretion maps are almost always overdone. But 0.25-0.5" of ice seems likely IMO

Completely agree. It's dry out there, so if rates are too little it obviously won't accrete. We were under a freezing fog advisory maybe a couple months back, and let me tell ya the roads were hella slippery even after something like that. I don't think todays storm and Tuesday are too comparable QPF wise. Tuesday will be loaded with gulf moisture.

If the freezing rain comes down too heavy, however, you won't see as much accrual. Those big rain drops will require a lot more energy to freeze compared to smaller drizzle drops. Also, you can't forget about the latent heat aspect of the rain turning from liquid to ice on contact. That is essentially why its so hard to get significant icing events sometimes. Because the surface naturally warms as the rain transitions in state from liquid -> solid.... Anyway, this isn't a long duration storm. It's modeled to be like an 8-10ish hour storm max. If you can lock in the cold just enough for those NW, I don't see how places escape a moderate icing event

Temps warm up considerably Tuesday afternoon after the storm passes However, by Wednesday morning we're back in the low teens

Sleeting here in Millersville

Even "surface" temps of 33-34 could mean power lines and elevated surfaces are still cold enough (around 31-32) with the recent cold nights for ice accretion. I still think Berks/Lehigh Valley will see some decent icing Tuesday but guidance has been trending the other direction.

GFS is just insanity. Places would need consecutive ice storm warnings days apart. We have a chance of light freezing rain Sunday/Monday. Then the Tuesday system (which hopefully trends colder in the mid levels to reduce ice and increase snow) and then the Thursday/Friday system which the Euro likes for more snow than ice, GFS disagrees as of now. Active week ahead

More ice Thursday and Friday. Here's a clown freezing rain map of both storms. If you're into destruction of the power grid you'll love this upcoming week

Usually the NAM is good at picking up on CAD and surface cold. But just a quick glance at the MOS guidance and it still looks a bit warmer than I expected. We'll see, I think this weekend is a "nuisance" but still dangerous, ice event. Maybe 0.1-0.2" accretion, which is still dangerous like I said. But the real ice events come Tuesday and Friday IMO.

Temps in the low-mid 20s

GFS is really something. Heavy snow and 10F up here in Berks Tuesday morning. Warm layer moving in quick though. Regardless, it's an all frozen event for most. If the press is real, I could see many staying all snow for the interior. If not, it's a 6-8" thump to ice. Not a long-duration storm, only 10-12 hours

46.5" so far in Fleetwood. I don't take measurements or keep track in Millersville.

Mean Total QPF on the plumes is 0.56" at KPHL. Do your own ratios however you please

SREFs plumes increased from 3.5" to 5.5" at KPHL since last run

Temps in the teens as the storm rolls in next Tuesday. Definitely looking like a "25F and freezing rain" type of storm as of now with the warm mid-levels but strong high pressure anchored in place overhead in SE Canada.