Newman

12z NAM is a touch warmer unfortunately compared to 6z. Still a nice 6 hour thump for the LHV

I knew this thing would trend north, but honestly not THIS much. Definitely have to temper expectations. I still think it'll move back south a bit, but really only benefitting places like the LHV. I guess we'll see, congrats New England 

Euro just went way NW

Ukmet definitely cut back for max totals west of 95, QPF a bit less. General 6-10" swath. DC would be marginal

Over the years living in PA, I slowly became a HECS chaser to be honest, especially after Jan 2016 and Jan/Feb 2021. Storms like the one coming up wouldn't typically excite me. But it's been a long time coming and my pops loves snow and wants this one badly. I'm excited for y'all, I'm flying back literally Saturday morning so I'll be missing it

If you've been doing this long enough, you know the Canadian always always always has an overamped bias and puts down more QPF than feasible (in most cases). The 12z CMC is a shallacking for those NW of 95, but the 12+ totals seem suspect. The storm is literally in and out in 10-12 hours. Yes, I've seen quick moving thump and dump storms consistently average 1 inch hour rates for the duration of the storm. Can't remember which events, but I've seen it during my times in PA. If the Canadian were to come to fruition, I'd imagine there would be some 10" lollis NW of 95. But this isn't a slow moving transfer storm. Again, if you're NW of 95 I'd be expecting a solid accumulating wet snowfall. Those furthest NW and into central PA will have the jack

The entire evolution of this storm has obviously changed since just a few days ago, everyone can see that. It'll be a quick thump of snow for 6-8 hours probably Saturday night. I think that bodes for max amounts around 6-8", unless we see a change as we get closer. Still sticking with my first call that the lollipop max is northern Berks up through the Poconos for our CWA. Not a trivial forecast, climo basically

6z RGEM at the end of its runtime, sticking close to its global counterpart. The NAM... just don't look at it unless you want disappointment

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Damn 24 hrs and still snowing on gfs haven't seen cmc yet

These are the amounts apart of the ULL pass through behind the main "system". Many get 2-6", then we snow through the next day adding on another 2-4

Canadian with probably the best hit yet those along and NW of 95

The 12z GEFS just shifted significantly further north with a much lower snowfall mean for the entire area

Big time changes on the GEFS

The GFS coming in with it's most north and warm run yet. And as I suspected, it's weaker as well. The 12z CMC coming in south from it's previous runs though, almost lining up with the GFS

I'm heading back west on Saturday morning, just in time to miss the first big east coast snow in 2 years... Helped my dad pull the snowblower out and gas it up yesterday. Berks and the LHV usually does well in these types of storms, in fact even though we're still days away I wouldn't be surprised if they "jackpot" with heavier totals. All speculation as of now.

One thing I've noticed just glancing at the models is there seems to be a cap on totals with this. A relatively quickly moving system so despite being a STJ brewed storm, there won't be much time to precipitate absurd amounts. 12-15" max type of storm, which is still great especially after the past few winters. GFS has obviously been trending much further north with Confluence in SE Canada retreating further north. Euro is better, CMC worse. Seems like a classic EC storm progression leading up!

If I had to take a crack at where the heaviest band sets up, I'd say Northern Berks up through Lehigh, Schuylkill, Carbon, Monroe... That general area. I do believe amplification and a warmer solution is much more probable compared to getting a whiff south 

9 hours ago, KamuSnow said:

Home for the holidays? Hope you're enjoying it! (Other than the driving).

Yep heading back to Wyoming after the New Year! It's been a good time back in PA, but I'm ready to be back in WY with a lot less people and more snow lol

The roads are absolutely horrible around Reading and Allentown, lots of ponding and flooding going on

KLAR got down to -12° it looks like, quite the cold pool that settled into the valley overnight with added benefit from some of the snow around

Laramie regional AP broke daily record highs for 4 straight days this week 12/18-12/21 with an outside shot at 5 straight tomorrow

One of my buddies in Leesburg sent me a pic at 4am with what looked like only a dusting. I'm not familiar with the VA/MD topography too much, but that's pretty wild that only a short ways to his east many saw 1.5-2". Even west in Round Hill, VA has a report of 1.5. Anyone else in Leesburg can confirm?

Dad sent me a photo of the snow in Fleetwood, about 1" on the measuring board, 1.5" on cars/deck

NAM is actually pretty impressive for the storm Monday regarding the *possible* snow on the backside

Currently got some snow falling and stickage in Laramie, NWS forecasting 1-2" here through the evening

I'm flying back to Denver tomorrow morning and will be in at 8am, I'm hoping 287 back to Laramie isn't closed. It looks like I-80 between Cheyenne and Laramie is currently closed

We ended up with maybe 0.5-1" in Laramie proper this morning before everything melted quickly. Expecting another snow this coming Friday, probably 2-6" in town