Newman

3 minutes ago, RedSky said:

GFS looks ominously better for the 23rd this could be fun

 

The CMC was a hair away from a bomb as well, verbatim destroys New England. It's an explosive setup with that northern stream shortwave and favorable confluence/blocking. 

1 minute ago, anthonyweather said:

Gonna score big or be discounted for the rest of the season. The consistency the past few days is remarkable.


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I think it's obvious that the snow maps just aren't gonna work in a system like this, there's gonna be lots of ptype changes as rates change and such. The GFS being colder is inherently apart of it's bias to be progressive and less amped... it's just not showing as much mid-level warming as say the NAM and RGEM (which have a bias to be too amped). I honestly don't know what to expect here in Berks. I'm at a higher elevation compared to the southern part of the county which will help.

0z GFS came in even colder again. Even if we compare the snow depth maps, there's a clear shift southward.

18z HRRR. Don't take the 10:1 snow map literally, instead see it as where the line for where predominately frozen precip will fall vs not. The HRRR is MUCH more generous and cooler aloft compared to the NAM. The NAM drives a warm nose aloft into the region while the HRRR is very stubborn to keep it tamed

NAM is much snowier for northern parts of the Lehigh Valley and Poconos

I could see Berks, Lehigh, and Northampton counties starting as sleet, then as the column moistens and cools briefly thumping 1-2" of snow. Then as the mid-levels warm we'll switch to sleet and freezing rain before turning to rain. Carbon and Monroe counties will stay snow longer and those further south in Montgomery, Bucks, etc. will likely start as sleet and then go straight to rain. One thing to take note of is if the CAD can hold on longer and prevail. I don't think we're far enough out anymore for major changes. But for areas like the Lehigh Valley, an extra hour or two of sleet/freezing rain is possible than expected if it stays colder.

18z GFS with a solid thump for the LHV Thursday, some areas stay all snow or frozen.

22 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not loving the setup for the late week system. Antecedent stale airmass, long SE fetch out ahead, mid levels toasty. Certainly looks more wet than white for the lowlands and I95. Maybe we can squeeze out some wet flakes or mix for a bit.

Very much interested in the pattern evolution as we head into the week leading up to Christmas (and possibly farther out as well). EPO-/AO-/NAO-/PNA+....this would be one heck of a global model(s) fail if they all had the tellies wrong. But even if 1 is off, the pattern is loaded. Core of cross polar flow starts out in the western US then slowly bleeds east which is actually preferred vs a direct polar blast that overwhelms the flow and forces suppression. Split flow off the W Coast, active STJ, jet max under us. 

Buckle up....our patience may pay off soon. Going to start seeing discrete events showing up on guidance. Dec 22-26 is showing up as one such period that bears  watching. 

It's super exciting that we should be entering a loaded pattern with our first storm threat centered right around Christmas. I'm rooting for a Dec 24-25 snowstorm.

Just some light rain and mist falling now. Had some heavier snow mix in throughout the morning to give a slushy coating to the car and grass. 33F

3 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Little Pine might be a good spot, it’s nw Lycoming County and has good elevation....Parker Dam might have something open too.

I actually just checked Parker Dam, cheap cabins so will consider it

Having serious thoughts of "chasing" this storm out there in central PA, lots of similarities to Dec 1992. Anybody know of any good State Parks I could rent a cabin at in that general area of Blair and Clearfield counties?

Euro is HUGE for much of central PA, west of the river

Latest CIPS analog guidance no surprise has Dec 1992 as the #1 analog

It's interesting to note the slightly further west NAO blocking we have this time around compared to 1992 (sitting squarely over the Hudson Bay on the 12z GFS, compared to east of it). Will that make a difference? 

6z GEFS... look at member 14. Right now the GEFS are catching back up to the other guidance, so not as many hits. But there are still quite a few solid hits

0z GEFS showing some pretty big hits

There's some pretty big solutions showing up on the GEFS, especially for the interior but even some for the coast

0z GFS with an absolute crusher next weekend. I really like Central PA's prospects for next weekend. Big cutter in the plains gonna get forced under the block and reform off the coast. Lots of cold air.

27 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

I agree with John.

 

We must wait until the second week of Dec to see a big shift. It is showing up on ensembles with the SW trough muting in response to the PV being shunted into SE Canada. I have my eye on a major archambault style event the second week of Dec. A true wave breaking event based on recent ensemble guidance.

Just hang tight folks, there are Legitimate signs of a PAC reshuffle being seen, something that has only been teased the past few winters but without any substance.

I would agree with you and John that we will likely need to wait until mid-December to see snow chances. However, what I don't like heading into the winter is the persistent convection in MJO 5-7(which aren't the ideal phases for EC snow chances). You can see it on the OLR maps and the Velocity Potential time series which I'll attach here as a link: (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ir_anim_monthly.shtml#:~:text=Velocity potential anomalies are proportional,to be enhanced (suppressed).)

With the Pacific modeled in the long range, it by itself will not produce wintry weather. However, the high latitude blocking and potential for a ridge bridge in the long range is encouraging, and will be necessary, if we don't push the Aleutians ridge into the PNA region.

Record low max forecast at KRDG tomorrow. NWS forecast is 34, current record is 35 from 1951

I think some of the higher elevations NW will see their first snow this week. Probably non-accumulating in most areas

Pressure now down to 995mb on Sable Island. Winds are still fairly calm.

Sea Level Pressure plot from Sable Island from the past 24 hours, you can find these graphs on the MesoWest website:

https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=CWSA&unit=1&time=LOCAL&product=&year1=&month1=&day1=00&hour1=00&hours=24&graph=1&past=0&order=1

*And to note, on the left hand side of that website, you can change between metric and English units*

Sable Island is at the max like 30 feet tall. Cut those 50 foot waves south of the island to like 25 feet and it's still tragic.