Newman

The low in Laramie last night was -25

My folk in Fleetwood measured between 7.5-8 inches around the yard and on the snow board.

KRDG has been reporting mod or heavy snow for 3 hours straight now.

Brother in Lititz just measured a bit over 4" in grass

18z HRRR looks solid for most across the CWA, WSW criteria met for Berks and the Lehigh valley. Upper Bucks, Chesco, Montgomery as well. Philly itself flirts with the snow/mix line for much of the game tomorrow, but ultimately remains on the "snow" side of the line. Worst conditions in Philly are probably when the storm is pulling through with the last hour or two as temps crash and ratios/rates are enhanced a bit. So, I would expect a snow or snow/mix during the entire game tomorrow with the 4th quarter possibly being the worst.

We got a surprise 5" or so of snow in Laramie last night. Was only expecting 1-3" max.

GFS looks like it'll be just a bit more tucked than 12z, unless the kicker behind it does it's part

I was just looking at the sounding at PHL around the height of the storm. You can see that warm nose at 850. The column is still below freezing verbatim, but in reality we all know how these things go if they're that tucked.

As of right now, I would lean still towards this being a Mid-Atlantic special as compared to an I-95 bomb up the coast to Boston. If there's no phase, well then we have no storm. If there is a phase, the decaying NAO block and 50/50 low should limit how north this got AND there appears to be a kicker wave on it's heels coming down the ridge over the west coast. Anything can happen, but just my early thoughts. We'll see lots of shifting around, probably some good and bad, in the coming days. I would be shocked if the current storm cyclogenesis process looks the same in 5 days

Verbatim if we took the GFS as is, it actually reaches the latitude of about the DelMarVa and then gets kicked east. It's almost a perfect track for the Mid-Atlantic states. You can actually see a warm nose/WAA in Philly at 850mb, the flow off the Atlantic would certainly bring mixing issues into play for those over the coastal plain. But at this juncture it doesn't matter as you said, let's get the storm to solidify on models first.

Major shift on the GEFS

That GFS drops a solid 1"+ of QPF in some locations along I-95 in only 3 hours. That, at a minimum in such a dynamic storm, would drop like 15 inches or more of snow in only 3 hours

Can we talk about the GFS dropping 0.7-0.8" of QPF in only the span of 3 hours? Holy crap, talk about the snowfall rates in that

I saw it coming in lol. As soon as I saw the southern energy phase in and the trough turn neutral over the Ohio Valley, I knew a bomb was imminent. But holy smokes, not 2-3 feet right up I-95 type of bomb

This 18z GFS run will be one to remember...