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Newman

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About Newman

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  • Location:
    Laramie, WY

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  1. Newman
    Just a heads up, Tropical Tidbits finally added more features for the ECMWF. The recent upgrade of the Euro also takes it out to 360 hours
  2. Newman
    Our first single digit low of the season here in Laramie overnight, got to 3 degrees with a wind chill into the negatives
  3. Newman
    KRDG and KABE both broke daily record highs today. 84 at Reading thus far and 82 at Allentown. Mount Pocono and Trenton also broke their daily records, PHL and KILG tied or close.
  4. Newman
  5. Newman
    Watching what could be our first snowfall in the Laramie valley this week around Wednesday. Upper level trough digs into the West Coast and ejects across the front range/Rockies, spawning lee cyclogenesis. Question becomes how amplified this trough gets, with the Euro/Canadian advertising a deeper trough that allows positive vorticity advection in a favorable location south of Wyoming, and thus cyclogenesis across Colorado. Meanwhile the GFS is less aggressive and swings the energy through SE WY which would bring just rain and dry slotting.
  6. Newman
    KABE has only seen 0.01" of precip so far this month, for reference the record low for October precip at KABE is 0.15" back in 1963. Before this year, there have only been 4 years in the KABE record with October's less than 1" of precipitation. The Euro and GFS are consistent with showing a weak cold front moving through next weekend which may or may not break the current record. The Euro is most aggressive, the GFS weakens it for perhaps some sprinkles. Either way, I would be shocked if Allentown ends up with more than an inch of rain this month, or even a half inch for that matter. The KRDG records don't extend as far back as KABE, but the previous record at Reading is 0.71" in 2001. In Trenton, also 2001 with 0.51". At KPHL, 1963 is also the record like Allentown when only 0.09" of precip fell in October. All of these locations have 0.02" or less of precip this month.
  7. Newman
    Was checking KRDG climate data this morning and, going back two months to August 13th, only 1.37" of precip has been recorded there which is close to the 1886 record of 1.17". For reference, the average during this stretch is 9.3". Euro and GFS ensembles are pretty adamant on a cold/dry and warm/dry pattern setting up, with any cool spells bringing in a dry NW flow, and then a subsequent upper level ridge setting up shop. Not really anything exciting to point out looking ahead.
  8. Newman
    Figured I'd drop some of the aurora pics I got tonight out here. Maybe not the brightest Aurora I've ever seen, but definitely the highest in the sky. The pillars stretched above zenith at times
  9. Newman
    From my experience, on a more "normal" night of geomagnetic activity the "recharge" usually lasts 2-2.5 hours and then the spike back up is a quick 5-10 minute burst. Tonight isn't normal, we're talking very variable and chaotic conditions with the magnetic field strength. So from experience, I would say maybe around 10:30-11 there *could* be the next substorm. But it all changes in real time. I took this time lapse here earlier this week, which happened right during a substorm. Otherwise, the colors were mostly muted before and after this. PXL_20241008_022847432.NIGHT.mp4
  10. Newman
    Space Weather geek here: that huge burst of aurora was due to an auroral "substorm" that often occurs, we will likely see more through the night. You can track here at the GOES magnetometer site the strength of the parallel component of the Earth's magnetic field. I will explain why that's important below this... https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-magnetometer Basically, what happens is the Earth's magnetosphere (more specifically it's magnetotail) gets stretched and then subsequently rubber bands back and releases the built up energy. When it rubber bands back, that produces the bursts of Aurora. They usually occur every 2-3 hours. On that website, you can time the substorms by looking at the large down spikes, that indicates the aurora is "charging up". Then when it spikes back up, that means it releases the energy in a beautiful aurora display. I would recommend changing the tab to 6 hours to get a close up view of what the magnetometer is measuring. All of this to say... You might have to wait another 2 hours or so for the bright views to come back! They come in waves and that's just the nature of these things. But it's cool, you can actually predict Aurora substorms and bright views.
  11. Newman
    Space Weather geek here: that huge burst of aurora was due to an auroral "substorm" that often occurs, we will likely see more through the night. You can track here at the GOES magnetometer site the strength of the parallel component of the Earth's magnetic field. I will explain why that's important below this... https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-magnetometer Basically, what happens is the Earth's magnetosphere (more specifically it's magnetotail) gets stretched and then subsequently rubber bands back and releases the built up energy. When it rubber bands back, that produces the bursts of Aurora. They usually occur every 2-3 hours. On that website, you can time the substorms by looking at the large down spikes, that indicates the aurora is "charging up". Then when it spikes back up, that means it releases the energy in a beautiful aurora display. I would recommend changing the tab to 6 hours to get a close up view of what the magnetometer is measuring. All of this to say... You might have to wait another 2 hours or so for the bright views to come back! They come in waves and that's just the nature of these things. But it's cool, you can actually predict Aurora substorms and bright views.
  12. Newman
    Sister in Reading just took this! Get out you guys!
  13. Newman
    Overhead Aurora in CT https://x.com/Vincent_Ledvina/status/1844517855452332258
  14. Newman
    Tropicana Field aftermath https://twitter.com/Ry_Bass/status/1844367980249178396
  15. Newman
    Even more incredible Aurora up here tonight. No edits at all, captured on my Google Pixel cell phone with 4 minute exposure time. 8:28pm north of Laramie
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