Scarlet Pimpernel
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Everything posted by Scarlet Pimpernel
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Yeah, especially now that the ice potential is becoming more a threat, even in the metro areas. That, and wind. The temperature profiles once we get into the NAM range (and other meso models), as you say, will be quite useful. The overall synoptic setup is more or less settled it would seem.
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Since we're tossing weenies around here, maybe you should say the "wurst"!!!
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There are prescriptions to deal with that problem nowadays!!
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Ensemble-sharpie-gate?
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Going full RR here this morning!! That's 2 comments you made that he would blush at!! If he's capable of blushing.
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But as long as the memes have legends, we're all good!!!
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Uh-oh, now I know we're in trouble. @Bob Chill's talking about kicking bunnies! Next, @stormtracker will come in with kicking cute puppies!
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Yup, which is why I looked at and showed the temps at that particular hour. Taken verbatim, we're probably sleeting or freezing rain. I didn't look at any soundings.
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Could be, I'm not familiar with the ICON's tendencies overall. But I also know those depictions on TT at least, it doesn't distinguish between snow and anything else. So many times when it shows rain it could well be ice depending on the surface temps.
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Whatever it's worth (yeah not much perhaps!!), the Icon shows "rain" at 105 around the DC metro but looking at its surface temperature it is below freezing DC and north. So sleet/ice then? Similarly at 108. Here's the 2-m temps at 105:
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I believe that's true. If it's not showing snow, it will depict the precip as rain even if it's sleet/ice. Not sure if that's the algorithm used or if it doesn't distinguish freezing vs. frozen.
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Reminds me of when I took calculus in high school. The teacher pounded into our brains to NEVER forget the "dx" in an integral and to NEVER forget to add the constant in the solution of an indefinite integral! He always said, before an exam, "remember...minus 1/2 point for every missed 'dx' and every missed '+ C' "!!!!
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Yes! Otherwise it's..."dafuq am I lookin' at???"
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I'm kind of the same. When someone posts a map with a ton of colors but no explanation of the scale!
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It could just be a bad psychedelic dream from the '60s or '70s too!
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Was going to say...looks very much like the Hurricane Isabel track in 2003!!
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Thank you...very good explanation. I don't know much about the specific 1994 storms you mentioned (wasn't in the area at the time), but I see what you're talking about.
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Not saying that it will happen or be the ultimate solution. But it's not like the GFS is doing something "non physical" here. If there's a shortwave on its heels phasing in at that time, it pulls the system NW as we see. @psuhoffman and others have hammered that point several times.
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Certainly not expecting an "all clean" snow event at this point. But it sure would be nice to avoid spiking temperatures and a deluge after a good thump as much as possible! I'd rather have a transition to sleet/ice, or a dry slot where we don't have temps shoot up well into the 40s.
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Confluence to the northeast any different/better? (ETA: Also that shortwave to its west?)
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Yeah that was quite the sleet-fest. I was living in the Capitol Hill neighborhood in DC at the time, we got like 3-4" sleet, which froze into a block of ice after that storm.
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Made me think of this (instead of "Margins! Margins!" it would be "Legends, Legends!!")
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Gotta hand it to you, that was a master stroke!
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That's a RR special right there, just waiting for comment!
