Scarlet Pimpernel

Could be a little brisk later Thursday if that ends up being correct.

I was going to say "bite thy tongue!" given how many times someone has said that too early and then *poof* it goes to hell...but just maybe we'll be OK!

Gfs is broken bro. It can't even give us snow with a 981 at Hatteras and cad lol We get April-style CAD in late January now, don't ya know!!

Haha! Well, I can guess. Those were just a couple of examples off the top of my head that were "marginal", and was wondering how they would have turned out in the current environment. I would wager the result wouldn't have been so good.

Don't worry...I recall the old Eta model...and actually using the NGM while working at a private forecasting company many years ago!!

Thanks for your comments in here and in the main discussion threads on this subject and the overall trends, @psuhoffman. You've been very restrained in not getting too much into the "political" argument about whatever warming has been occurring or why, which is admirable. Though I can pretty well guess where you stand on that argument, and I'm of the same opinion just to put that out there (assuming I'm correct in my assumption on your stance...will leave it at that, though!). Agree with your thoughts too on why there is actually (paradoxically?) a relative increase in the "big dog" storms even as the environment in general is warming...more energy, and if you're lucky enough to have the right temperature profile, you'll get hammered with a big snow. Places far enough north or high enough in elevation would benefit the most as you say, from such storms. It is disheartening to see the trends of marginal events over time though, especially for places that are already geographically "on the edge" (like DC, or I guess you could say 40 degrees and south in general). Even just in the past couple of decades (length of time I've been in this area), I think I've observed it. Some of that could be bad luck in some seasons, but I think some is also the general trend. I wonder what the Jan. 2011 event (your PSU storm!) would have done in this year's climate, for instance. That really was kind of marginal, at least in and around the DC area. Where I'm located, it was at or a tad above freezing through the event pretty much, but it was pounding snow (8" in about 5 hours!). Very heavy, very wet, and you could practically hear some of it running off and melting almost right after the snow stopped (it then turned into a brick overnight). Would that be mostly rain in the current environment, specifically this year...just 10 years later now? That's just one example. Another is...remember the late Feb. 2007 event (Feb. 25 sticks in my mind for the date)? Nearly isothermal sounding from the surface up through the boundary layer and right near freezing. We were forecast to get ice/sleet mostly from that, but we ended up with heavy snow for awhile, like 5-6", followed by some light drizzle after it ended. It stuck to everything. I wonder what that would have done now?

Would that even make double digits??

Well I guess relatively speaking most anything this year is a "crush job"!! And yeah, it is sort of getting there. But the thing is, comparing to the 12Z GFS this is a notable shift north with the precipitation and snow, from what I see. We were on the very northern edge of any real snow then, it was close (and everyone was all excited at that trend at 12Z). It appears to have trended that way through all of today's cycles. Besides, it's far better than the huge letdown the Euro and EPS gave us this afternoon!

To go full-on chemical geek, I guess he should have typed in "HCO2" there for Howard County!!

Is it even possible to drive that fast on I-95??

Lifebuoy to the rescue!

That's a pretty good way to describe it I think. Shorter vs. medium/long range threads, and specific dated events that have real potential (e.g., Jan. 25). I'd assume that if the Jan. 29 system continues to look real, we'll have a dated thread for that one, too.

Is that the equivalent of "Shut up, Chuck!"??

We need another thread titled "The Gap between the January 25th and January 28th Threats and Potential Threats Beyond the 28th but Not Quite Really Long Range". That ought to clear things up, LOL!!

LOL, I know, was just making the stereotypical joke about the NAM there! In all seriousness, I do recall some discussion about that December event and the NAM's relatively good performance (with the thermals?). Of course everyone jokes about the NAM beyond about 48 hours, but it's not terrible when you get closer to "go" time (36-48 hours and before). Certainly for the thermal profiles. I've also heard the NAM nests are superior to the parent 12km grid.

Another good (bad??) pun, to go with your "fret" one the other day!! That one made you a Guitar Hero!! Well done on the parallel GFS pun! Perhaps it's engaging in para-normal activity too?

You must have seen an early release then, as it came out in 1977!! ETA: 'd by @benjammin! But I also remember seeing that in the theaters when it came out!

That is an interesting development for sure...mix/ice to snow. Not sure if that's shown up in previous model cycles before this?

No. Yup...Al Michaels with the "Do you believe in miracles?"

Ha, touche! As a connoisseur of puns, I appreciate this!

Are you saying @Ji might wake up one morning and find a guitar head under the sheets??

The "Pus" storm??

Yes, I'll be interested to see if the ensembles continue their trend from the 06Z GEFS...or if they "flip back" to more supporting the ops GFS.

Sometimes, it's a fine line between Schnee and Scheisse!