Scarlet Pimpernel

Sounds like you were channeling @ravensrule!!

Wow, I remember the Challenger explosion and just being transfixed by the news. I wasn't paying much attention to the weather out this way, as at the time I was in college at Purdue when this happened. My freshman year.

Yeah that was a very intense scene. I read that when Anthony Hopkins delivered that line and then made the "ts-ts-ts-ts" sound with his tongue (sort of on the spot, not planned), that Jodi Foster gave a sort of frightened/stunned start!

Fava beans...and a nice chianti!! LOL at the "Silence of the Lambs" reference...great movie (if chilling)!

Still the best example of this in my experience is Feb. 2003 PD-II. That came in like a wall of snow. The other big ones since have been similar, starting up quickly, but PD-II was the most dramatic.

Careful...this is a family-friendly discussion board! But seriously, that is a nice signature and a nice amount of QPF for the mean. The thermals seem a bit tough for DC east/south at least for a time (as always??), but the progression of the 06Z EPS sure looks great.

Looks like it includes the MoCo @Bob Chill and HoCo @WxUSAF jackpot zones in there, too (higher probabilities)!

Yeah, I'm kind of in this camp of thinking right now. Can't fret too much. But it is stubbornly consistent which is concerning (annoying?)...and don't much like seeing the light rain/drizzle from about Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, essentially. We'll see how things evolve.

Ahh, yes! That's another great term!!! And a way to gain a greater advantage. ETA: And true about zugzwang, it can also mean a move that would immediately lead to the player making that move losing.

Haven't gotten on there but yeah, I might be up for a game when I have a chance! Definitely consider that!! BTW, if you're into reading about chess, I'd recommend "The Sorcerer's Apprentice" by David Bronstein. Chess books and analysis are normally dry and dull, but this one has a lot of colorful description and wit. And it is semi-autobiographical about Bronstein himself, he had a rather remarkable career and life in many ways, despite being under the old Soviet regime and not exactly their "favorite".

Yeah, it's kind of an obscure term perhaps, though it's a situation that does occur and sometimes people will use the term in that case. The situation I show in the avatar, of course, is the extreme!! Though I think there are actual games where both players might be in zugzwang! The joke in the name is that sometimes when playing chess...or even just life in general...one feels like they're always in a state of zugzwang!! LOL!! I haven't played as much lately but used to play a lot more and liked sitting down going over some of the older well-known games from some books. Still like doing that, but don't get around to it as much as I had (but maybe I should again!). I'm pretty decent, especially if I "get back into" playing and actually study a little. Played a ton in high school, too, with a few other fellow chess geeks!

Even @Ji would be happy with that... . . . ...nah, who are we kidding!!!

Gotta love those German terms...I think that comes from the early 20th century or maybe shortly before, when there were a number of famous and excellent German chess masters of the time.

Ahhh, good question! That's the nature of "zugzwang" (German word that essentially means "obligation to move"). Normally in chess, if it's your move you have the advantage because you then control things to varying degrees. However, there are situations where having to move will put you in a *worse* board position that would be more advantageous to your opponent! In the setup I have shown in the avatar...it's mutual zugzwang! If black is to move, they cannot stop white from queening the pawn (a huge advantage!), and eventually lose. If white is to move, they must move their king away from protecting the pawn such that black can take it, resulting in a draw...or, move their king directly behind the pawn which results in a stalemate (and thus, in either case, lose the significant advantage of potentially queening the pawn). I contrast that with a quote I really like from the great player David Bronstein (very colorful personality in how he analyzed and described games!)..."The most powerful weapon in chess is to have the next move!"

This might suffice...

So...he's thinking big dog and not a chihuahua then!!

Same here. I lurked on the old Eastern US WX Forums in winter of 2008-09, and then finally joined sometime during the great winter of 2009-10. Then of course it became AmWX the next year. Overall, it is fun, and more fun to actually participate! I don't usually add a huge amount to a lot of the analysis/discussion, except to expound on a few things or maybe insert a humorous comment here and there, or ask a question. Quite frankly, there are many others who have subscriptions and get access to far more data than I do and far more quickly, so I just sit back and read as a model is coming out. And there are certainly more who are more knowledgeable than what I can offer, and there's no point in me repeating what they say, really. There are certainly a few or a handful of people who tend to clutter things with downer posts or terrible analysis (not just a one-off or a few times, but consistently!) that it can get frustrating. I generally try to keep frustration at that to myself (as well as frustration that we all feel when things end up sucking!!). But sometimes, I do put up a post calling it out...maybe I shouldn't, but in general I try to ignore the "annoyances". Or I'll make light of it with a little poking fun. I also like to have fun in the Banter and Panic Room areas, those are really the places to laugh at our failures and get snarky! Let's face it, the Reaper is an institution now (or should be institutionalized!)!! We all want snow. That's why we're here rooting for yesterday's 12Z Euro to happen! LOL! Which it won't of course, though some "form" of it might. But damn, we need a solid area-wide event, you can sometimes cut the tension in here with a knife now after 2 years of almost nothing.

Skele-psychiatrists are on duty and on call now in the Panic Room? They look legit...just like the team of lawyers there!

The irony is stunning, I must say!

Yup...I know, and I'd think by this point I'd be "used to it" or just expect the useless melt-downs. But, unfortunately, it's still damned frustrating to see page after page of tearing of hair, gnashing of teeth. I get being nervous, especially around here!!...but come on, people. Would I love a HECS? Of freaking course!! But a decent prospect at ~6-12" solid warning level event would be great if we can manage that.

Everyone was all hyped up about the unreal Euro run at 12Z yesterday so now anything looks "bad". I wonder how the discussion would have gone if the Euro didn't spit out a BECS. So much mention of a "disaster", but then when you cut through that BS, it's not really that awful at this point, to be honest. Expectations and all that, I suppose.

Not only that, but I gotta wonder WTF the mention of vaccines has to do with any of this?!

I distinctly remember checking the discussion and model pbp in here the Saturday afternoon before the storm hit (about 7-8 days out). At that time it was clear a significant storm was in the offing and it seemed like all major models "snapped in place." Thereafter it was a matter of various details... Would it be a top HECS, would we mix for a time etc. But it was clear at least a significant snow event was there. Of course that was a Nino and STJ on roids and a perfectly placed block so the setup was very clear-cut as was the models' handling of that. ETA: @Deck Pic pretty well stated it, especially concerning the Euro. I thought the GFS/GEFS did well starting early on too but that could be incorrect recollection on my part. There was also a wacky 00Z Euro run right the night before that cut precip amounts for some reason, which momentarily caused alarm I seem to recall.

Well, card stock is a good source of fiber. Just hope you didn't consume any of the really valuable cards! Oh wait, you were referring to having the gum for lunch... I think!