Scarlet Pimpernel

We. Just. Don't. Know! Seems really uncertain at this time where the CCB will set up. But I did hear it's unclear where it will be at this point in time! (A message from your friendly neighborhood Department of Redundancy Department!)

Oh, hey! Look where that reddish patch is located!!! Knock me over with a feather!

Maybe (I definitely get the caution!!). But they're 5 hours ahead, so almost pub time on the other side of the pond!!

Cool...thanks! I'll have to bookmark them. I think their stuff also comes out faster too? There are times I see people discussing later forecast projections that I haven't even see show up on TT.

Thanks (moving this to Banter). Sorry if I gave incorrect credit, maybe both of you discussed that extension of the trough in New England. Unfortunately, I only see the coarser, 24-h Euro maps on TT, so rely on whatever I read or see in here for the more detailed analysis of the Euro. Which is why I asked.

Was that little "dip" over NY that the NAM displays also on the Euro? I think I recall someone mentioning something about that (perhaps @Wentzadelphia)?

Part of the problem is...people went ga-ga and got sucked in on a couple of huge runs from a couple of models (granted, the Euro did it too). So everyone was all giddy for a 12-24" event with a CCB crushing, almost half-ignoring the front end WAA snows. Nailing down the details of those transfers, as has been said many a time, is tricky business around here. I almost wonder what everyone would feel like right now if we were being shown a solid warning-level WAA event but there was a consistent "meh" on the CCB part here without some of the crazy runs. I bet it would be a lot less frantic and tense. I still think the coastal development phase is a bit up in the air right now.

Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious!! Now that's something quite atrocious!!

I cannot believe someone actually threw that word out in here. Seriously. Glad that post was removed.

I figured you probably were being a little snarky. And I agree, he's extremely smart and knows this s*it very well. I know some complain about his mini-dissertations, but I actually like his descriptions and the plots he shows...especially for the longer range pattern stuff. Plethora of information! But it can make people get very concerned when someone like him gets outwardly nervous, because he knows a lot.

It's because he's very knowledgeable. I don't say that to be snarky, it's just true. When someone of his level of understanding gets nervous, it tends to affect what everyone else might think. If the typical weenies freak out, it's easier to "ignore" that panic. The other end of the scale sort of might be someone like Bob Chill. Very knowledgeable as well. But he was a lot more "Zen", and though he of course wanted his yard to jackpot (we all want ours to do so, LOL!), he was always of the "chips fall" attitude, as he would say. He usually would say stuff like "well, Mappy and PSU land will do well with this event, but I'll be fine with my 2" slush brick here in MoCo" or something like that. I'm sure he'd be disappointed inside, but rarely "let it out" unless he was being obviously humorous. I don't think I've seen a time that he ever "melted down."

OK, that's a little bit creepy looking, I have to admit! But funny too!!

How's it look compared to 18Z? I'm only on TT and it's not out too far there yet.

I think it looks better for the WAA front end going by the discussion here (though sleet later in the DC area)...but it's the uncertainty of the coastal that looks slower to get going through its run. I think it was faster on the transfer the previous cycle or two, for what it's worth.

Well, I got my degree (undergrad and grad) in meteorology, though not a forecaster per se. That's where a lot of my background synoptic and other related knowledge comes from. But beyond that, just reading in here (and other places), you learn the tendencies of how things work in this area. There are a lot of good posters on here, even if you have to filter out some of the BS posts. Pretty much any of the local "red tagger" mets in here have a plethora of great information and insight. But even those who are not technically "red tags", like @psuhoffman, @showmethesnow, @Bob Chill among others are great (though showme and Bob haven't been around here in some time, unfortunately). Really just reading a lot in this forum (and living here long enough) in a lot of ways helps. I learned an immense amount just by doing that, honestly.

Dammit, man! For half a second I was wondering WTF happened to my cursor!!

I initially read that really fast and thought it said HOT PANCAKES!! (mmmmm!)

So now that you put that ear-worm in, here ya go!!!

So you basically did a mental DGEX there.

...And then sit there watching the 6PM and 11PM local news and weather (annoying your parents in the process), looking at the crawler of school closures, hoping yours would be listed!!

For some reason, this made me think of the Monty Python "Holy Grail" scene where the peasant is shouting "Help, I'm being repressed!!"

C'mon...you know those Europeans! 4 hours of work and then time to hit the pub!! Wait...that sounds perfectly acceptable to me actually!!

Quite a marked change from 00Z, I believe?

"Mind the Gap!!" (ETA: Anyone familiar with the London Underground will get that!)