Scarlet Pimpernel

Random question here that I've been meaning to ask for awhile. What really is the difference between the 10:1 and Kuchera methods? Well, obviously 10:1 is what it says (and it includes sleet). But does Kuchera take into account sleet, dryness of the snow, varying ratios over time, etc.?

Thanks, PSU, that's an excellent and clear delineation there.

A little late here on this question, but any indication how that snow is "distributed" between the initial WAA and CCB parts? Just curious.

OK, well...that's good to see after what the NAM just did. It's been kind of consistent overall, no? Not saying it's right, but maybe it's something. On to the globals now, I guess.

That's weird. Is there a limit on how many reactions one can give in a certain amount of time? Didn't realize that. Or a limit on how many times you can change it?

That 12-day stretch (Jan. 30-Feb. 10) was unreal. Four warning-level events, two of which were HECS-level (Jan. 30, Feb. 2, Feb. 5-6, Feb. 9-10). The most concentrated amount of snow in such a period that I've ever experienced.

Ha! All you need is to label everything with lettered regions that incoherently overlap with each other!

Totally can understand where you're coming from, Bob, and I think we can all respect that. Regardless of how much you want to say or analyze or report...your input here is always welcome at any level! Thanks for all the insight over the years, I really learned a lot just by reading, and I have always liked your attitude regardless of how bad or good our snow chances were. And HELL YEAHHHH...it's FOOKIN' happening! (required disclaimer: I hope so, anyhow, LOL!!)

Even the Reaper is getting all misty-eyed at the return of @Bob Chill!!

Absolutely.

Sorry for the banter in a storm thread...but hopefully exceptions can be made with the Return of the Chill!

You'll be in the MoCo jackpot zone as always!! Good to see you Bob, thanks for stopping in!! I hope you are doing well these days.

Ugh...that feels painful just to read!! Glad you are recovering, and hope you can do some kind of phys therapy exercises now and then to keep it in decent shape. That's what I'm supposed to do (but am sadly highly negligent at times, which is on me!!). Having a decent day, yes, thank you! Any time there is a good chance of WSW criteria snow or better, I'm in a good mood at this time of year! I hope to have a chance to get some nice photos (photography is a hobby of mine), if we actually get a good event! Hope you're having a good day as well!

Sounds tasty! Having a glass of chilled chardonnay myself right now.

Hey, I totally empathize with back injuries! Or at least lower back pain. In my case it's a semi-chronic lower back issue (not an injury), partly my fault for not keeping the core strengthened as I should at times, and it can just go out on me upon occasion. Really debilitating, to the point tying shoes is a chore! Like it gets charley-horsed or tied in a knot, then it takes a few days to "untie". Ugh! But hey, guess I'm just gettin' old, so get off my lawn!!

That's definitely part of it. Also they're lower resolution and won't be able to show the more subtle features and/or thermals as well as the high-res deterministic counterparts. Ensembles are most useful beyond ~3 days. I might almost argue they're still of some use for a short while more for the second part of this event, with the coastal development, to get an idea of the low center spreads, etc. But we're on that fence of usefulness for that even now, as regional models are in range of it.

Give me 2.5-3 more shifts to get some more of that into the metro area too!

NAM still certainly looks to stay cold despite a period of sleet around the metro areas.

Any particular reason it's so dry? That's even less than what it showed for 12Z.

Yeah, I was encouraged by the quasi-neutral look at ~72 hours. Then all of a sudden that closed 5H low opened up right over us and re-formed around south Jersey. Interestingly, it "expanded" southwest of there at the end of the loop you display.

Sounds like the joke my sister-in-law always uses...whenever someone asks "Now, where is that such-and-such" when you can't find something, she almost always replies, "if it were up your ass, you'd know!!" Which is true, of course!!

As George Takei would say, OH....MY!!

I wonder where the CCB will set up. Any indications yet?

You did indeed mention the legion of crews coming in to assist! They look like they mean some serious bid-nizzz!!! Oh, and I think there are modern medical treatments for premature jumping? Remember, if you feel like jumping for more than 4 hours, please contact your physician!!