Scarlet Pimpernel

So given that, if I put my car up on tall blocks I can avoid getting it ice covered! Brilliant!

Long range thread is getting interesting (or unhinged?) with PSU taunting/calling out Wentz for thinking that perhaps a rainy solution Tuesday would improve things for Thursday! I see a cage match coming!!!

I'd like that just about as much as watching a continuous loop of John Elway's " The Drive", Earnest Byner's "The Fumble", and Michael Jordan's "The Shot" over Craig Ehlo, all while getting a root canal! (Saying all this as a Cleveland fan, LOL!!)

Yeah that was a pretty quick turnaround. I wasn't expecting really any snow this upcoming week, but was sort of counting on what you say...a mix/icy mess for a couple of events with low-level cold air pretty well entrenched.

Could be like #67!!!

Oh hey, you found the Rosetta Stone!!

Can someone post the surface wind speeds in furlongs per fortnight, please??

Yeah, sort of noticed that. And Tuesday is looking more like a Monday night into early Tuesday event according to the ICON.

FWIW, the 12Z ICON has ~0.25-0.50" or so generally across the region through later Saturday night. Stripe of 0.50" cuts right through the DC area. The amounts are not as high or as expansive compared to 06Z, but still (and that could just be run-to-run variation). Temperatures generally in the 25-30 degree range.

Good points. I admittedly do click through those ptype maps initially for a quick overview...but mostly to get some idea of the surface positions, extent of precip and how it moves, etc. I already knew that the Tuesday potential was likely to involve a lot of ice, so then immediately looked at the surface temps (cold!) and other parameters above that level. And sure enough, it's clear the algorithm wasn't handling it right. No need for anyone to freak out for sure.

We get the full gamut of precip types for next Tuesday in the LWX point forecast! Everything but hail! Now to be fair, at this point what else can you do, honestly? Monday Night A chance of snow before 1am, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Tuesday Rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet. High near 34. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

True. I don't know what that is in the RGEM on Sun/Mon or when it started to appear. Then again, the RGEM indicated 45" snow for us the other week (slight exaggeration!)...so whatever. I take it the GFS doesn't have nearly that strong of a "follow-up" wave on Sun/Mon like that. I take a bit of pause that the NAM shows a similar, though weaker, kind of thing that the RGEM depicts in that time frame. Worth looking out for I guess.

The GFS thing is definitely a graphics issue. But the RGEM actually does have warmer surface temperatures Sun/Mon and rain.

Haven't looked all that closely...is this only showing up in the regional models suddenly today? Don't recall that thing on Monday (or late Sunday) being mentioned until now.

Game of Tetris??

Waiting on @stormtracker to say "the RGEM can eat it!"...bet it's still on his s*it list!

Rare footage of prehistoric dinosaur weenies making their way to the Panic Room. Apparently the Reaper caused them to go extinct!

Is that the one that was looking like a cutter, or at least well northwest of us? I think the GFS still had it that way, not sure, but yeah this would be a change.

Very true, it doesn't take much ice at all especially if it really is that cold. If anyone remembers the early March 2015 ice event (I think it was on the 1st, a few days before that snow we got), it was nothing heavy...light drizzle or rain, maybe some sleet as well as I recall. Temperatures were also just below freezing, not as cold as what models are indicating for this Saturday. Didn't accrue a ton of ice, but it was outright dangerous!! In broad daylight, in early March no less. ETA: Experienced a really bad ice storm in Atlanta in Jan. 1999 (not the Super Bowl one the next year). Decent precip rates just pouring into that cold air, and it accumulated quite a bit (can't remember exact amounts, but I'd say pushing half inch of ice or so at least some places). Pine trees and those southern magnolias (which keep their leaves all year) with the huge leaves got absolutely shredded.

I'm not sure how accurate this is, so take with a grain of salt... I'd wager it's partly due to the fact that the (Arctic) cold here is pretty shallow. We're not exactly in the "center" of it all. It's apparently well-entrenched at and near the surface, at least this side of the Appalachians. But we're sort of on the edge of the main Arctic push it seems as these storms approach, enabling the mid-levels to warm even as the near-surface digs in with cold.

A back yard that looks like it has some nice playground equipment?

Maybe the models are feeling verklempt! They must talk amongst themselves!

Yeah, if we can't get a decent snow, I guess the next "best" thing in terms of interesting stuff would be sleet and ice! Or I'd prefer that to 30s and cold rain at least. Honestly, in the time I've been here (since 2001) I cannot recall a really good ice event with the exception of Feb. 2007 I think. We've had some light ice accumulation here and there around the metro DC area. But the sleet bomb in 2007 stands out to me most. Maybe the sleet in March a couple of years back, too.

That is really close there around and just above 850mb, looks right at or a hair below 0. I'd think rates would cool it, if they're good enough. Not to over-analyze such details this far out, but yeah, that is still interesting.

Very interesting map of the snowfall reports from @MN Transplant showed, and the corresponding NAM nest from @high risk. Definite cutoff as you get closer to the beltway. I'm just inside the beltway on the northwest side of DC (Chevy Chase area), and got ~0.5" snow/sleet.