Scarlet Pimpernel

You obviously haven't grown up as a Cleveland sports fan!!! LOL!!!! They've had plenty of teams that were embarrassments!

Always love Monty Python references!! But I prefer...BURN THE DEBS (or witch!)!!!

Well, seeing that you have just recently posted several such Ji-like sarcastic comments, one does wonder...

Totally agree! It's like the complaints about how 2016 was a one-hit-wonder but otherwise sucked. Complaining that 2016 was nothing but one big storm is like saying "other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?" And yeah, that March 2018 "first day of spring" event was great! There have been many such snowstorms in March, even if they aren't HECS level.

Can always count on you to be a total sarcastic weenie. Thanks!

Let's just let things unfold as they will, however it happens. We see the remarkable agreement across all ensembles and it has been now showing up in some ops runs more and more in the ops extended ranges. And the extended ensembles/weeklies have been pretty emphatic through the first part of March thus far. Don't worry or get caught up in specific dates or apparent times that "nothing much happened" or "PD is our time!" I mentioned this before, but remember in 2016 there was talk about how we have a relative lack of snow events the 3rd week or so of January...whether due to chance or some actual meteorological reason (traditional Jan. thaw, that sort of thing)? Then something happened Jan. 22-23, 2016...trying to put my finger on it, I recall getting some decent snow then...LOL!!!

We had a ~3 week period from Feb. 14-March 5 or so in 2015 that was absolutely amazing around here. And that followed a rather craptastic pattern at the end of January and into early February. Yet we had epic cold starting Valentine's Day that year along with several decent events. No HECS or anything, but wow, what a stretch of cold and snow! That February ended up at like a -10 departure on temperatures, even after a relatively warm first week or so. (ETA: And even the record-breaking winter 2009-10, the winter came in concentrated waves...we had 14 days of amazing winter from the end of January through mid-February, and maybe another week or so in December around the HECS that month).

The snow mean for July 4 weekend is a disaster!! Totally sucks! Summertime HECS cancel!

I know there are those in this forum who think early March snow (i.e., first half of the month) is a waste, but we've had some really good cold shots and snows in the first part of that month. We've also had some epically cold periods in February (2007 and 2015 come to mind). Who cares if it's not something that would necessarily stay on the ground for a week or two. Really! If these current indications on the extended and weeklies are correct, we could well easily be tracking things not only the 2nd half or so of February, but also into March. I say bring it on!

God's sake, even with every blasted model showing a highly favorable and amazing pattern toward the middle of February into the first part March or so, you still have awful downer posts in the medium range thread! I swear, some people really should be five-posted.

Haha, I guess that's true, it sure does feel like that many times for snow! And kudos for recognizing the meaning of the chess term ("obligation to move" but it puts you in a worse position!)...gotta love those German words for things!

I was just going to mention this is a pretty sick (or slick??) looking pattern at the end of the GFS. Yeah, 384 hour ops and all but I've seen this showing up more out there in ops la-la land, which is nice to see! And I like at the surface how there are some nice highs lined up in Canada on the east side of that PNA ridge.

Well hello!!! Former Panic Room quasi-employees can't hide from the Reaper no matter one's name!

Right...they have a "severity" scale of 1-5 for the top events, based upon areal coverage, population density, and of course amount of snow. "Lesser" events below the KU scale are the more moderate events which they also cover in those volumes. I'm more or less in line with what others consider for the categories, and all of them should be warning-level or higher: SECS...4-8" solid event. MECS...12"+ HECS...18-24"+, typically covering a wide area of the East Coast. This would also be considered a "KU" storm, one that would be discussed and referred to historically. But even this has nuances for specific "IMBY" amounts...I got ~12" for the Feb. 9-10, 2010 event (though very hard to measure!), but I consider it a HECS based because it had true blizzard conditions, a whiteout for several hours, and it was very cold. Plus other locations nearby got 18" or much more. It also, of course, covered a wide area. BECS...as I mentioned before, enough snow that Moses would have to part the snow drifts on the DC Beltway!!! Maybe enough snow that @Ji would complain that it's TOO MUCH! Or enough that even @Jebman would decline to attempt shoveling it.

Is that used for their Atmospheric Dynamics II class, for the Met major???

Ha! Well, I guess my "art" and otherwise odd sense of humor and posting style come through no matter the name! Cat's out of the bag!

Day-um! Can't ask for a more classic setup, and I'm glad to see blocking coming into play even before this extended ensemble range. If we can't get that to work, then we're looking at going full Offenbach with "The Tales of (PSU)Hoffman"!!!

LOL! Well, I actually used to have the handle of "Always in Zugzwang". For what it's worth!

But the Laughing Cow!!! Need that to truly have an epic SBFI (gotta have some food!), and you'll be Jebdrinking like it's 2009-10! (But you might be doing that already!) (ETA: 3 fridges? That might induce a triple-phased-fridger!)

Interesting, because I seem to recall similar discussions in 2016 about the lack of big storms around the 3rd week of January. Maybe due to climo "January thaw" or just chance. And then we got the blizzard on Jan. 22-23! Again like you said, no apparent reason it couldn't happen.

I recall for several days it actually DID look like we'd get some big snow out of it (like a foot or so), but as it got within the short range it looked "warmer" and like we might end up with rain. But it was so darned cold, and it was very entrenched, that in the end it was quite the ice and sleet event...the globals were of course scouring the cold out way too fast. I recall eastern MD got very severe icing out of that...the cold layer was shallower so they didn't get "saved" by sleet like we did a bit farther west

I'm of the same opinion about 2006-07, and in fact it is actually one of the winters I've liked a lot despite the relative lack of snow. Yeah, December 2006 sucked and January 2007 started off even worse. But the latter part of January into early March (especially February!) turned colder with some snow and icy type events. That sleetfest we got on Valentine's Day in February was oh-so-close to being a big event around here. But damn, that month was COLD, we had at least some snow/ice pack for several weeks.

It's the Detroit Lions of emotional swings in here!!