Scarlet Pimpernel

I was actually going to ask if DC goes above freezing at the surface on the Euro, or if they switch to rain. I saw that plot a couple of pages ago showing like 0.25"+ ice in the area...whew!

Yeah it just completely blasts the PBL away like nothing, that's for sure. Personally, in that setup, I'd be fine with a sleet topper above a heavy layer of snow that has already fallen, that then turns into a glacier (as @Bob Chill might say).

You had mentioned something earlier about how you don't necessarily see this as flipping to heavy, driving rain...but rather to sleet based on the soundings. I went back and took a quick look at a couple of soundings in and around DC at f138 (when it has us raining here), and I think I see what you're talking about. Looks like the column quickly cools (though GFS has sfc just above freezing still) and indicates some wrap-around like precip after that. ETA: Not that I should be parsing soundings this far out, but just for argument's sake is all!

I must admit, I'm glad that Georgia won (and convincingly so) last night. I didn't follow the game much, just occasionally checked ESPN online when I wasn't checking the latest model runs...LOL!! @GATECH...I know, I know! No self-respecting Tech grad should root for that "other" school northeast of Atlanta! Don't take away my Ramblin' Wreck card! But...I've always had the philosophy of "ABB": Anybody But 'Bama!! So this one time I allowed myself to deviate!

Nahhh, go for the cheapie properties! Baltic Ave. and Mediterranean Ave.! Or Connecticut/Vermont/Oriental Ave.! You can put up hotels on those much faster and start raking it in!

Was that the one in January (a month or so before the PD-II storm)? I remember a cold powder clipper type event sometime that month that over-performed.

What's funny is that I still distinctly remember the two very cold Februaries we had...2007 and 2015. Both were like -7 to -8 degree departures, and I think 2015 was overall colder. Both had a "key event" around V-Day. In 2007, we just missed a major MECS/HECS level event but still ended up with a big sleet and ice storm that turned into a glacier for the next couple of weeks. In 2015, we got the burst of snow along that Arctic front (Bob, I believe you said you were out in the garage grilling while that snow was falling?!). As I've said a few times before, if we had gotten hit with the V-Day storm in 2007, we would have considered that one of the better winters in memory. To me, it was still a fine season overall and I think that February with the cold is a big reason for it. But it gets overlooked because we didn't get a lot of snow. In 2015, it's as if we had a "re-do", we got the cold and snow that February (into early March).

Yup, I definitely remember that particular storm. For awhile and for several model runs it looked good for us, and there was a fair bit of excitement. Sometime not long before the event (a few days), the 18Z deterministic GFS was still looking fine and you put up a sort of warning post saying, "Guys, don't look at the 18Z GEFS ensembles!" Sure enough, the ensembles didn't look good for here and from there after it was clear the event was going more north.

Very good points, Millville. The main take-away I have, really, is pretty much what you say here...as long as we have a good, long window with opportunities, that's all we can really think about right now. And not chase individual things that pop up in deterministic models >4 days out. The only thing I take issue with is this: There’s gonna be waves zipping through the pattern like cars on the Capital Beltway at 700pm on a Friday. It's physically not possible for cars on the Beltway to "zip through" at any time of day!! Perhaps a better analogy might be "...zipping through the pattern faster than Ji can declare every model run a disaster!" Hope you are doing well and had a good Holiday season!

Or maybe @Jebman will jump into it with his shovel a'la "Sharknado" and save us all!

Frodo??

Haha, maybe so! Did it override "-PNA!!!" from earlier in the season? Seems every year has the big buzzword, in the media and elsewhere. Like "Polar Vortex!!" back around 2014. Anyhow, to your point above, yeah if we don't have some ridiculous extreme -PNA, that doesn't have to be a bad thing. I thought we typically actually need some kind of southeast ridging (a little, not crazy!) to keep storms from being too suppressed. Always the tight-rope, I suppose! But the upcoming pattern does look intriguing. Hopefully we can score.

A bench in the snow. The shadows caught my attention and black/white was perfect for this...

Hahaha! Like Godzilla cat on that scale!

Oh, you mean the Voldemort Storm (Dec 2010)...the "storm which shall not be named!"

Very true on both counts. It doesn't take much to make even walking treacherous. Heck, yesterday some slight re-freezing of water on a sidewalk got me a bit nervous. And years ago when I was in Atlanta during an ice storm (close to 1/2", there about), I saw so many trees just get shredded. Mostly pines and those magnolia trees that keep them all year-round. Half an inch on large leaves is a disaster for those trees!

Nothing further from the defense, your Honor...we got nothing!

When assessing the overall pattern, I take Ji and Jebman as two opposite starting point goalpost ensemble members, then gradually interpolate between them based upon the GEFS and EPS ensembles. It's most effective at D+5 through about D+30. At times, even on the seasonal scale. Well, it SOUNDED scientific at least!!

Hey man...priorities!! Hold it in for awhile and check out the long range first! Jeez!!

I'll probably regret engaging this, and maybe you're just trying to be snarky and humorous, but...dafuq??? Many or most of us come in here primarily during the winter, since that's the predominant interest. So of course one of the first things I/we do is to check out the threads in here if we know something potentially interesting is going on. Neglect elsewhere in life? That's a bit rich. You could argue any hobby people have that they take seriously or pursue with great interest causes the same, but that's a rather negative way to view things. Some take it too far or are a bit over the top, but most in here are not (and @Bob Chill or @psuhoffman are perhaps the two most level-headed people around here).

It's a recessive gene, and so far the medical community doesn't have a cure. In fact, there may never be one! Or at least, I sure hope there never will be!!

I came into this thread thinking it would be a discussion of freezing rain potential tomorrow morning... ...and all I got were bad David Attenborough imitations!!

Hahaha! I remember in northeast Ohio growing up, the weather line (NWS forecast) was 931-1212. And the TV-8 (CBS) forecast from the famed local meteorologist Dick Goddard was 881-0880! I can still hear his voice on the weather segment of the local news, he'd say for updates to call "eight eight one...zero...eight eight zero" (with the pauses and all in his voice!). Yeah, I still remember those damned numbers! Sadly, Dick Goddard passed away in 2020...he really was a legend in the area and very good. Especially when it came to lake effect snow. I had a weather radio about the same time, in the early '80s! Listened to it all the time, awaiting the zone forecasts (everything was on a loop of course...observations, weather summary, zone forecasts, etc.). And I even still remember the time number from where I was growing up, 471-1212. With the automated voice saying "At the tone, the time will be..." every 10 seconds!!