Scarlet Pimpernel

Hush!!! Don't "JI"nx it!!!

That's the best...when we've got something on the doorstep and other potential events to follow after!!! Better than grasping at shreds of hope during shit the blinds periods, by showing week 4 Euro weeklies and MJO charts!

...of the AmWx mid-Atlantic forum, in order to form a more perfect Snowftorm... (yes, I purposely used an "f" in snowstorm to make it look all late 18th century!!)

You can always hire a SKELETON crew to work on it! A unique fixer-upper opportunity! If it's condemned, that's what the Reaper would need!

I think that may be one of the lesser known original amendments to the (Weenie) Constitution!

Well, you do still own property here...i.e., the Panic Room...even if you're retired now!!

@mappy...Happened to notice in my search icon that today apparently is "Tulip Day!!!" (The search bar always shows some kind of "such and such day"!). Though perhaps you knew that since you like tulips! Which reminds me, come April or so I'll have to remember to post some tulip photos again if I can get some good ones then!

Thank you very much, good sir! I try to brighten things in here and impart some humor how I can even when things look pretty blah...while at the same time add some value and knowledge to the general storm and weather discussions. And I likewise appreciate your comments, love of good music (especially Beethoven!), and snow! Also, coffee and (in my case) alcoholic drinks are always good! There are a lot of people in here whom I appreciate and always look forward to reading (and met a few at a mid-Atlantic "get together" from 10 years ago!)...just to name several offhand, @stormtracker, @psuhoffman, @MillvilleWx, @Terpeast, @WxUSAF, @high risk, @mappy, @H2O, @yoda, @WxWatcher007, @Mrs.J, @Bob Chill, @ravensrule, @Scraff, @CAPE, @Jebman. (I've probably missed some, my apologies if I have!) Thanks for the community, the weather talk, and great times following all our snow events over the years!

Jeez, the mood swings and tearing of hair, gnashing of teeth in this place!!! You'd think we've gone from a HECS to a 70 degree wall-to-wall torch for the rest of the month given the tone of some posts! Yeah, I know, should be used to it by now in all the years I've been on this forum. But still. I checked some of the models and read some of the better posts in here and...honestly, you cannot ask for a much better placed to be at this point. As several others have said, and I agree, the potential and look starting around Jan. 22-24ish is great! Obviously, that's no guarantee we score anything (the usual caveat statement!). However, every model has been showing at least one and in many cases more than one solid event from next weekend through the end of the month. The ensembles likewise look solid (I think @mitchnick posted the snow means earlier?) and have for a little while now. This isn't some one-off where a stray deterministic run dumps on us one time and then it's gone forever and ensembles showing nothing. This is a fairly consistent indication of waves running into solid cold air...maybe at different times each model cycle but it keeps showing up and it's not being can-kicked. It's kind of like how @Bob Chill says...sometimes you see great looking ensemble means but "under the hood" there's not much there when you should see some good hits, which raises red flags; other times, you see great looking ensembles and there ARE good hits in there along with the same from deterministic models. So yeah, I gotta like what's under the hood here!

Are we in Guy Fawkes ("Guys-Folks") territory????

Yup, our last "true" HECS event area-wide, in 2016.

I thought Jan. 22-23, there about, was mostly looking like temp issues already anyhow? And it's mostly just after that where the cold is more in place? (ETA: Though true, some previous cycles have shown that to be cold enough I believe).

Ha! Well, in this case since I'm not really expecting much of anything for the Sunday event, "Ellinwood Gray" is actually looking pretty good...relatively speaking!!!

We're on the Harry Potter Knight Bus...ahhhhhhhh!

I've had more interest in that time period (and/or just after that) than anything for this weekend. As I said earlier in this thread, different deterministic models (GFS, Euro, CMC, whatever) have on and off shown some kind of really good event in that time. Sometimes even extreme. And the ensembles have as well. Sure, it would disappear and reappear in the deterministic models from run to run (and Ji would complain if an ensemble mean snow map lost us an inch!!), but it's shown up somewhat regularly in that time frame.

Those things looked damned tasty!! Stouts at this time of year are perfect!

I'll go the Bilbo Baggins route for this one!... "I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve."

Is very bad to drink JI-bu's rum! Is very bad!

Related to this, you also didn't have all the various derived fields, etc., that these vendors now have.

Wow, that 18Z GFS was smoking something!! I want what it's having!! Even here in metro DC, a ton of sleet followed by 6-10" snow with temps in the teens or 20s?? Gimme that! But in all seriousness, I don't quite get a lot of the cynicism here. OK, ignoring what the GFS shows verbatim at this point (which on its face is ridiculous amounts)...the fact is, there has been indication of that type of setup over the past few days for that time frame across different models and ensembles. Hell, even the venerated Euro a couple of days ago showed basically double the amount of PD-2!! I know these are extremes unless this really starts showing up across all guidance and it gets closer. Again though, that time period around Jan. 23-26 has shown several possibilities now for a potential moderate-major overrunning event with cold air pressing in up top and then behind the system. That's my takeaway right now.

Wow...not even considering the surface, that's quite a change in the right direction at 500-mb! From a positively tilted trough to neutral, almost negative, and notably sharper. Not sure if it's occurring "too late", we'd probably need that farther west a tad, I would guess. Also, is that some hint of interaction with the closed center around northern Hudson Bay? Looks like "streamers" of vort coming down into the main trough of interest.

The old philosophical conundrum: If a thread is started in the middle of the night and nobody is aware of it, did it exist??

Getting back to the college football playoffs...I really hope IU wins, and even wins big and impressively vs. Miami. I say this as a Purdue grad too (only for this year's football championship...NOT basketball hahaha!)!!! Also, IU has an incredible team this year, they deserve it. But I just cannot deal with the Hurricanes winning a National Championship (saying that as an FSU grad, went there for grad school!), plus, regardless, gotta root for the Big 10 even if it is my alma mater's archrival!! (Heck, I rooted for UGA over Alabama a couple of years back, even having gone to Georgia Tech also in grad school...because my mantra is "ABB: Anybody But Bama!")

Could perhaps be interesting (maybe?) but it appears the NS and SS waves are too separated from each other and too positively tilted. But again, the RGEM way out in range so whatever.