Scarlet Pimpernel

Is it possible to recommend this like 1000 times??

Same. This is a highly dynamic system, can't ask for much more at this time of year. I definitely get LWX being conservative for now and as I said, they made it clear in their discussion that they want to see the latest morning/afternoon guidance before pulling any triggers in terms of expanding the advisory area. But even still, the current forecast makes it evident that tomorrow will be a rough day out. They also did mention the likelihood of wind headlines, which is no surprise.

Agree. I would hope we can score a decent, solid 2-4" event in most areas (there will be more for the N/W folks obviously). This could be a neat memorable event to see off the winter! Snow, wind, sharply falling temperatures! ETA: After this event, I'd be perfectly content to go full-on @mappy for spring!! Not that there's much choice, because there's literally nothing wintry afterward!

LOL yeah, juuuuust a tad! I am confident they won't be keeping the forecast static from what it is currently. And will change as needed later on today.

So if this event works out tomorrow, should we change the thread title to "The Eastern Standard Time Goes Out Like A Lion Storm"??

I am sure they will update if and when needed. Their discussion earlier this morning mentioned that they wanted to assess the guidance that comes in this morning and early afternoon.

GFS has trended colder (especially from its 18Z run yesterday), just looking at the 2-m temperatures at 12Z tomorrow. It's nearly freezing in the metro areas.

Definitely. And this is a highly dynamic setup which helps a lot I'm sure. I suppose this is how they can get similar heavy snow events (relatively speaking) in more southern areas late in the season, even as they also would have a higher sun angle and warmer antecedent ground.

Trying to out-ravensrule RR himself!!

Regarding the "cut back" amounts on the NAM, I wonder how much of this has to do with the SLP placement. Notice at 12Z it is much farther northeast (appears to go where the convection is??). I'm using the 10m wind/SLP plot here from TT because it's less busy and you can see the "L" more clearly than the regular radar/SLP plot:

That's no problem, I get your just wanting spring to get here and stay. Honestly, I'm fine with that myself, after this blast of winter tomorrow. And like I said in the other thread, TULIPS! LOL! Besides, I'd rather read your "don't want snow" comments in a thread that's looking for snow, than Ji's drive-by bombs of incessant childish whining!

Yeah, normally if this were just a bit of white rain with chillier temperatures I wouldn't really care and would think "blah!" But I have to say I'm really into it now given the highly dynamic setup and blast of cold/winter for a day! It'll be in the 60s next week, but it's kinda cool to have winter go out with a literal bang! Just keep thinking TULIPS! They are coming in about another month I believe!! And yes, when they do, photos will be forthcoming!

That seems to be the most notable trend across all models from what I see. Dare I speculate this could sneak its way to an area-wide 2-4" event? In any event, with the wind and temperature drop it's shaping up to feel brutal out starting late morning in the merto areas.

Well, nobody is forcing you to join the quest! It's almost St. Patrick's Day, so it's the time of leprechauns, pots of gold at the end of a rainbow, and I guess unicorns too!

You covet grass?

Thanks, Bob. Appreciate your comments and I agree with most everything you say here. I certainly believe humans have impacted the climate, evidence shows that, and it's happened over a relatively short period of time relative to the scale of eras and whatnot. To what extent or how much it will affect future climate conditions, I don't know exactly. Besides any "climate" concerns, I strongly feel it's a very good idea for us folks to do what we can to take care of things just for our own health and existence. I've felt for some time that we eventually really need to get off our dependence on dead dinosaurs for energy. You mention the climo lines creeping north, and it made me think of something, though this is anecdotal. My home town of Cleveland and northeast Ohio is well north of that "creeping line" (at least for awhile!) compared to here. What I've noticed is that they seem to get more juicy winter events compared to what I grew up with; not to mention lake effect. I think this is reflected in their average snowfall, which has gone up over the years. KCLE averaged about the mid-50" range for snow annually when I was growing up...it's now like 60" or so. I think that's a result of what you mentioned. New England I guess is perhaps in a similar place in that regard.

No blue for you!! We get gray!!

March 32nd...Book it!!!

Not New-Englandy long enough for you?? We should add some more words, maybe the name of that Welsh town that's like 30 something letters! (ETA: Oh, I see the note that you changed the title...don't know what it was originally!!)

Are snow maps welcome??

Agree...and good points again about the number of single-digit seasons in the DC area over time, with the mean being fluffed somewhat by the more extreme events. Here's a question, though maybe you implied this in your discussion here: How much of the "fewer marginal events" are due more to lower level BL temperatures above the surface? Or even upwards of 850mb? So maybe the surface would be OK for snow with good rates (33-35 degrees, say), but what would have previously been "cold enough" at, say, 925mb or a bit above is now "too warm" and you don't get as much snow (white rain, etc.). That all kind of fits in with the general warming climate I believe.

Some very good points. It almost makes me think if something like Commutageddon (Jan. 2011) would even work out as well or at all in the cities anymore, if it were to occur today. It was a marginal event, at least near the surface. That may not be the best example, as that was very dynamically driven with intense uplift and I believe the 850 temps crashed. So perhaps not quite fair. But you get the idea. It was like 33-35, there about, while it was snowing hard for like 5 hours. A perfect paste job. Right after the snow ended it started melting underneath (at least on roads), before everything froze later that night as temperatures finally dropped.

I would guess all or nearly all that falls between ~15Z-20Z, there about, before it hauls ass out of here. At least that is what appeared to be when precip would be frozen. ETA: I'm talking more in the metro areas, but I'd still think most of it falls for the N/W folks in that same time period as well.