Scarlet Pimpernel

We've accumulated good snow during daylight hours in the first part of March upon several occasions in the past several years. And it's not like it was always pounding heavy snow either.

Yeah, hoping to mitigate how much gets washed away later in the week!

I believe you mean the IGGLES!!!

They haven't gotten 6" in Baltimore from the NAM???

I miss the DGEX.

There will be lots of slant-sticking.

Yeah I'm wondering if that later Wednesday and Wednesday night period might turn out more...interesting...in time. The other day it appeared that we'd get a decent thump of snow Tuesday into maybe early Wednesday with the first wave, and then rain after. Now...???

I've been slightly curious about next weekend, the GFS has gone back and forth somewhat between some kind of snow/ice (depending on location) and an all-out rainer everywhere. It looked like the last couple or so cycles have pushed the low a bit farther south lately, but hard to really tell. If we can get enough confluence to stick around, it could become pretty interesting.

Yup...I'm kind of agnostic on the game but at the same time don't really care to see the Chefs win again either! (yes, purposeful misspelling there!)

You really shouldn't let squirrels anywhere near...oh, nevermind!!!

Everyone ready for the Superb Owl game today? By the way, who are the Chefs???

I see that the secret FOLKS is watching this thread!!

Hope you feel better soon and don't have too bad of a case!!

Uhhhh...errrr...leaving that one alone, lest The Raven Who Rules but Shall Not Be Named chimes in! Ooops, I think I just sent up the bat signal! Sorry about that!

"After further review, the Lakes cutter stands as modeled. Repeat 4th down!"

Sign him up for the Browns (Clowns)!!! Fits right in! And I say that as a native Clevelander, I'll freely diss how awful they are. Now the Cavs (and Guardians)...different story!

Wasn't that one always more or less a rainer? But that one next weekend has occasionally indicated some kind of snow/ice type deal around here, it's vacillated between that and rain.

I was reminded of the snow (first time in recorded history I believe?) in Miami during that remarkably cold January 1977. I had lived in Atlanta for several years (mid '90s into the early 2000s), which is of course right in the Piedmont region. I never saw big snows there but did experience some real cold upon occasion as well as some light snows and a couple of serious ice events. I was amazed how the more deciduous trees were relatively unscathed, but those pine trees they have down there and the southern magnolias got totally shredded (put 1/4" of ice or so onto those magnolia leaves and they just get destroyed).

Did we just get ICON'd...relatively speaking?

I've only followed this line of discussion in a cursory manner, so apologies if I'm stating things that were said before or are not exactly on topic here. But I've always found it interesting how places in the deep south can get these remarkable "cold smoke" snowstorms almost with any major Arctic outbreak, when one might normally think that snows for them would have to be "wetter/slushier" just because they are in a warmer region. I know that is an extreme of course, and when such things occur they're just on the right side of that boundary with a nice wave going across. The weather doesn't care that it's New Orleans or Pensacola or Atlanta...or Minneapolis. I was talking with someone the other day that blasts of cold air are not overly uncommon in the south (one can argue whether certain nameless trends make that less common now than previously!), but this one just happened to occur with a strong wave propagating to the south, so they got record-setting snows. If they got no snow and essentially just a "blue norther" (I believe that's what they call it in Texas!), we'd read about the unusual cold but it wouldn't be the big news story without the snow. I think this all is a part of the changing climate with more extremes; those extremes don't always have to be heat-related. LOL, gonna need a bigger paycheck then! But seriously, yeah, there's some nuance in here that is not easy to define I'm sure, beyond climate change (can I use that phrase? LOL!).

I know you weren't canceling anything...I was being humorous and facetious because the moods in here give one whiplash (people posting 360+ hour ops maps and freaking out, OMG!!!! And that right after partying at a crazy snowstorm the GFS showed at 06Z.). You've been spot on steady as a rock about "your" period of about Feb. 20 through Mar. 15. And I agree with your thoughts on this upcoming next week. While I was hopeful (still am!) and it would be cool to score before the time that will be more truly favorable, it is kind of an iffy prospect. You did state that to be sure (an iffy prospect next week), while at the same time saying that you weren't discounting any snow threats prior to the 20th. I thought that was a fair take. (And, BTW, I appreciate the educational and philosophical discussions as well).

I kind of understand what you're saying here, but this isn't exactly how models work. At least not dynamical models that compute a complex set of dynamic/thermodynamic equations through time, given a set of input initial conditions. Now, the AI-type models might be able to do this. Does the Euro AI use some historical database of the Nino state (or any other factor, like MJO), in its forecasts? You can argue that perhaps the dynamical models don't respond as well as they should to the overall atmospheric state, but it's not a situation of where some "base state" is ignored; it would be sort of indirectly factored in by the input data. If you ran the GFS in the Jurassic era (using those observations the dinosaurs took, hahaha!), it would still work and it would respond to what the atmospheric state was at that time, within the confines of the model biases and such. Regardless of the atmospheric state, the physical and thermodynamic laws are still the same. Of course, as I said, one can look into how well any particular model or ensemble can handle that or how well those equations are represented. But that's a different conversation.

Wow, the mood in here seems to have deflated faster than a Tom Brady football! We've been following the later February into March time frame as being a very favorable time for good opportunities, for a little while now. Yeah, the 06Z GFS with the crazy 40" amounts is not going to happen and I don't think anyone truly took that to heart. But it showed the potential, as have other similar storms that have shown up in that time frame a handful of times. Now, everyone semi-loses it because the GFS and Euro ops show rainers, and now we're talking like, "well, it's a Nina, so we're doomed regardless" or "what if the blocking doesn't work", etc. Of course there is no guarantee with a favorable setup, but I would think there will be several chances to score all the same. If people are looking for a top-5 HECS system here, you're likely going to be disappointed even though that could happen, sure. If you're looking for some solid MECS events, that's a better shot in this environment (i.e., yes, a Nina!).

So...we're canceling the PSU window now?

Elementary, my dear Maestro!