Jump to content

Scarlet Pimpernel

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    6,828

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Scarlet Pimpernel

  1. Scarlet Pimpernel
    OK, I'm not @psuhoffman and don't play him on TV...and yeah my previous comment was meant as snarky humor. But in all seriousness, just giving a cursory glance at the 500-mb flow around that time, it seems to me that the GFS just lifts everything more. The PV seems to get shunted north or elongated a bit, with little confluent flow; rather than forming a 50/50 type low it sits way up there in northeast Canada. We end up with flow coming right off the Pacific. At least according to the GFS ops. Here's one snapshot:
  2. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Change the physical properties of water so that it freezes at like 45 degrees???
  3. Scarlet Pimpernel
  4. Scarlet Pimpernel
    That's the one around the 23-24th?
  5. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Suppressed pants-tent, as it were!
  6. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Also, notice it's the extended ensemble CONTROL member, not a mean. So it's even subtly deceptive in that regard.
  7. Scarlet Pimpernel
    I prefer the FAKE punt by FSU (vs. Auburn in the 2014 BCS game), when they came back from a 21-3 deficit and went on to win...
  8. Scarlet Pimpernel
    That wave around the 24th has been one that many here have honed in on as the "better" opportunity, I believe? Though don't rule out something just before that either (PD or just after).
  9. Scarlet Pimpernel
    And the day after Presidents' Day, he rested!?!? Yeah, I swear, if the storm cannot happen on that day so we can officially declare it PD3, then screw it, we shouldn't get a storm at all and let's not get any other snow the rest of this winter!!! (This is extreme sarcasm, by the way!!)
  10. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Do you say FOLKS in the future?
  11. Scarlet Pimpernel
    I don't know about that but I do know for sure there are adults on this board who act like they're 15 years old (or younger!)!!
  12. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Shroomchaser???
  13. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Yup, it's almost hypnotic!!!
  14. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Touche!
  15. Scarlet Pimpernel
    I'm sorry, I've read your comments on this issue for some time and just have to go into a bit of a rant here, because I deal with numerical models myself to some extent... This has to be one of the most ignorant takes on "models" I've ever seen. I get that you're not overly fond of numerical weather models, ensembles, etc., as I've seen you say on more than one occasion essentially that "all they do is show you every possible outcome to cover all bases..,." or whatever (and I strongly disagree with that sentiment). Or at the least you sure leave that impression. Whatever, and to each their own, but I think this all shows a serious lack of understanding on how modeling systems work and how they should be used/interpreted, and is an insulting slap in the face to the scientists who develop this guidance. Doesn't matter if some posters in a weather forum like here live and die by every single ops model solution at 200+ hours, which I agree can get annoying. But that is not a statement on numerical weather prediction itself. One cannot be serious that weather forecasting has rapidly fallen behind other sciences due to, as you call them, "archaic models." You cannot seriously believe that our understanding of weather systems now is worse than it was in the early or pre-modeling days. Perhaps you're right in the end, that you should just show up in the obs threads when a storm actually does occur. But don't criticize based upon weenieish comments that you read in here and mistake that for what numerical modelers and forecasters believe.
  16. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Maybe shit the blinds on this one, but open them up wide for the next one(s) hopefully!!!
  17. Scarlet Pimpernel
    I did look some at the ops GFS progression around the possible PD event and beyond, and yeah, looks like it tries to just break down the flow soon after. Not totally sure why. I don't know how much of that would necessarily "have" to occur if the PD storm happens (if that makes sense), or if the ops GFS has just tended to flip the flow into a "meh" pattern in its extended forecast projections. Obviously, there's some connection which you mention, i.e., this leads to that which results in the GFS showing whatever pattern later on. I've noticed a few times that the ops GFS turns the 500-mb flow rather bland in the longer range, but that could be due to just being an ops at long range.
  18. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Thanks...yeah, Zwyts sounds correct and familiar from that time. I thought he changed his name to @Deck Pic though...not sure. At any rate, I definitely recall his comments about the March 2015 event.
  19. Scarlet Pimpernel
    The complaints about "too warm leading in!" for the potential PD-3 event around here are ridiculous. First, it's 200+ hours out! Second (if you really want to get into the details!), the temperatures literally crash as the storm begins and it remains quite cold for a couple of days after. The same temperature depiction was shown for 00Z and 06Z, when everyone was ga-ga over this. Again, it's 200+ hours out, but the overall hints for this general time period have been discussed at length. And your comment about cold smoke in March...spot on! The one I remember best was March 5, 2015. That featured a front that went through early in the morning followed by rapid cooling, as a wave moved up the front and gave us that storm. In fact, I recall @Deck Pic (I think it was him?) very early that morning saying watch how many people freak out because it wouldn't be snowing yet when they woke up, when the event wouldn't really start until mid-morning. And sure enough, people freaked out because it was still wet but no snow falling...even as the damned storm was right on our doorstep (and it began snowing shortly after)!
  20. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Maybe it was something soon after that, the thing that ended right at 384h, where PSU and others said it was an absolutely near-perfect setup, etc., but that the GFS "found" the one way to make it fail!
  21. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Cynicism comes with age and experience, my friend...embrace it!!! Some people just call it "realism!" LOL!!! Agree, it most definitely was.
  22. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Anything on the potential development of the system around the 19th? The 12Z GFS was oh-so-close but not quite there for us.
  23. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Very true...bonus for sure. Just a couple of days ago, this was essentially not worth the time.
  24. Scarlet Pimpernel
    850 zero line looks OK, but man, that surface freezing line! Still, not that bad a place to be at this point for an event that's kind of a "bonus".
  25. Scarlet Pimpernel
    So basically...like the Ghostbusters car...it needs everything!
×
×
  • Create New...