Scarlet Pimpernel

Interesting you mention this. I take it you mean that this Arctic blast isn't something that will be ushering in a week or so of good cold but that it kind of retreats pretty quickly (like shortly after this Christmas weekend). Why I said it's interesting is because it's not just here, but even those areas out in the midwest that will be even colder than us, they look to warm up soon after as well at about the same time as us.

Good points. I'd be curious how many of those December snows you list were very discrete single events that occurred at just the right time in an otherwise crap pattern, but we lucked out, as opposed to a good stretch of decent cold and we at least managed something.

Yeah those December snow events tend to stay in one's memory and perhaps exaggerate the possibilities every December from then on. We've certainly had some good ones, like the "Dec. 5 snows" around here and of course the HECS in 2009 (a highly anomalous event to be sure). We've also had some good cold, like 2009 and 2010, and at least this upcoming weekend this year. But we've also had lots and lots of "blah" with 40s and 50s, and the unreal April-like December in 2015 (still recall it being almost uncomfortably muggy out on Christmas Eve that year!). Others can chime in on what particular Nino state we had or the specific pattern, but surely that played a role too of course. I've found March has been a surprisingly wintry month here in a lot of years. I know most around here don't care for snow in March because it doesn't normally stay around, but it is cool when it happens. 2014 comes to mind as perhaps the most with 3 solid events that month (Mar. 2, Mar. 17, Mar. 25) and even a quick inch on Mar. 30. But we've had several other March events that were advisory to warning-level criteria. Even the one last year, it wasn't a lot of snow (~2-3" where I am), but it occurred in rapidly falling temperatures along with some wind; I was out taking photos during that one, and believe me, it was quite cold!

How are the Flyers doing???

If the power goes, you might not have to "work" anyhow!! But seriously, I really hope power doesn't go tomorrow, and if so that the worst it does is cut in and out now and then for only brief moments.

I know we're not really looking at much snow tomorrow as the Arctic front blasts through, and it would have been nice to score a couple quick inches as it breezes through (like Feb. 14, 2015). Maybe we can get an hour of some snow showers though? But still, I strangely find myself pretty interested...even kind of excited...to experience such and event. Just hoping the power doesn't go out. I've almost been preparing today as I would before a snow event, making sure the car is fueled up (just in case), getting things done shopping-wise before the weekend, etc. Of course, some of that is due to Christmas; tomorrow and Saturday would be an absolute mess regardless of the weather, so best to get that completely done now! If you think of it, outside the disappointing lack of snow, this should be very impressive. Dropping from the 40s-50 or so into the teens by early afternoon, and even into the single digits overnight in the metro DC/Balt area (with no snow cover), then two days of rather bitter cold (again with no snow cover). The temperatures indicated in the official forecast and in the models are numbers I haven't seen around here in some time, and even then maybe once or twice since I moved here (2001). The temperature drop expected tomorrow morning, as well as the literal blast of wind and cold we're looking at, remind me of the Ohio Blizzard of 1978. In that amazing storm, temperatures dropped 30 degrees in a two hour period (from mid 40s to mid-teens, eventually dropping into the single digits), along with a huge blast of wind and blizzard conditions.

So catching up here, and...what the hell?? Here's a summary of the events, it seems:

Right. And I think this gets back to the point you made once that many of these older analogous that come up are simply not really applicable anymore in today's climate.

I think it was 2017 Could have been then, too. So many of those years they seem to blend together!

Could be now that you mention it. The year that Texas had bitter cold and those awful power outages but none of the cold air really ever moved east toward us.

Yeah I remember something about that too. It was literally perfect track rainstorms with zero cold air anywhere. Seem to recall it was a situation with a good setup but previous Pac puke had vacated all the cold air. Something like that.

Wait... So Voldemort is causing global <shall not be named>?

Aveeno Warnings guaranteed to be issued for this weekend!

The difference is, we have Ji. So all our meltdowns follow from there. We could do a forum trade, if you take up the rest of Ji's contract and give us a player to be named later!

Indubitably!!

Seems there's talk of a kerfuffle in the main medium range thread!!

Well...to make it simple, guaranteed it won't snow here in May, June, July, August, or September. Almost certainly not in October or April. Not the most likely in November or March. December, January, and February, kinda up in the air but even those months are iffy! I think I covered every month there. So not good odds any way you look at it!

Hey, it's a good word, don't knock it!! Though it does sound pretentious, like something George Will would say. So is the person who instigated it a kerfuffler??

If you mean when the cold front blasts through...it's early afternoon Friday.

Temperatures drop emphatically between 12-18Z Friday...from 50-55 to the mid-20s (there about) in the DC-Balt corridor. It looks even colder by 18Z Friday in this run compared to the last one but that's probably run-to-run noise.

Of course not!

I seriously don't think anyone is overly "excited" about this, to be honest. It's just interesting from a meteorological standpoint no matter if we get nothing, a couple of flakes, or a bit more. I've seen threads started for FAR less than this.

Man, the sarcasm in the event thread for Friday is off the charts! I mean, I get it that we're not looking at much, but it's still at least interesting from a meteorological standpoint with that strong front blasting through. If people aren't interested or don't care, at least don't flood it with useless, cynical comments. Rant over.

12Z GFS is notably faster with the frontal passage than the 06Z (and 00Z) cycle showed. It's through by 18Z Friday. 12Z: 06Z

OMG that is the funniest ending of a game since the famous Cal-Stanford band crashing one years ago! Even better that the Patriots lost!