Scarlet Pimpernel

You must be getting 3 beers/hour, according to the SBFI!!

Always loved that view of your house, with the wintry scenes!!

Palm trees must be bending heavily with all that snow on them!

3.0" as of about 6PM. Main roads are covered.

OK, to be honest, I want to see (at some point soon, whenever that is!) a solid event, MECS+ level, consistently showing up for the whole area cycle after cycle. I just don't think realistically we'll see that consistency just yet, if that's what actually ends up occurring at that time.

Also, that is probably not the only storm chance in the upcoming pattern regime that's being forecast. @psuhoffman gave some good descriptions earlier about this.

We've seen everything from getting a bit too far north to a nice MECS+ hit to sliding just to the south. Supposed seasonal trend or not, at this point in time it's not worth worrying about until we get much closer in. What are people going to say if 00Z cuts it into Lake Erie? FFS!

It's ONE deterministic run. Can't fret that stuff right now. The previous two GFS runs had an almost inland runner that was some combination of snow/ice/rain. The 00Z ECMWF from what I saw pummeled us (snow, and a period of ice then cold). The 12Z CMC gave us a high-end cold powder MECS. For me, the key takeaway is that a storm is now seemingly showing up consistently in that time frame. Hell, a few days ago, the GFS was dumping 40"+ on us. Again, the idea here is that it's a somewhat loaded pattern; we can't go back and forth worrying about every single cycle of every model this far out.

Moderate (or better) snow falling in Bethesda, paved surfaces getting covered (though roads with all the salt, mostly wet right now). Visibility getting quite low too. Maybe ~0.5" or so on the ground currently when I went out several minutes ago. Took a few photos of the early part of this event, will go out later as well. I'll post a few sometime later tomorrow when I have a chance.

Works for me. Give us several opportunities that we can hopefully score well on a couple (or so!) times from now through mid-March and I'd be fine.

Wasn't this already known and expected, that we'd go to rain sometime Wednesday night? Unless you're referring to something else...?

Anyone else think it's a bit creepy how "The GFS" is holding "AmericanWx"???

Glad to see that is showing up again in ops runs. I really think we need to keep seeing this show up. There were a couple or so ops GFS runs in the past week that were showing a good storm around the PSU timeframe. Including the ridiculous 40"+ one from 06Z a couple or so days back.

Agree, I think a foot is probably the ceiling for anywhere.

I actually wouldn't be totally surprised if someone ends up with double-digit amounts from this in the end.

Actually reminds me of this bar near campus when I was in grad school, they had this thing called the "barber chair". It literally was a barber chair. After you paid for this "ride", they'd sit you down in and pour some kind of booze down your gullet and then spin the chair fast. No, I never tried it...freakin' made me dizzy/sick just watching hahaha!

Fifteen (!!!) years ago today, the 2nd big storm within a 5 day period ("The Blizzard")...

Yeah, just caught up looking at all that, saw several new pages and...holy shit!

What the hell just happened???

Looks like a wider expanse of the max amount area compared to the ops?

Don't jinx it! I'm thinking of the old "Shaft" song, the "Shut yo' mouth!" part!! LOL!!!

Are you looking to secede?

Agree. I think what we're seeing this upcoming week is pretty much what you stated well before this. That is, you weren't that big on it, but also said you weren't discounting any snow possibilities which still could happen. We're now looking at an imperfect and "lucky" event for Tuesday-Wednesday, though obviously we're not going to see those outrageous amounts that models were spitting out late last week. Still respectable though! Now right after that, we have to deal with more or less getting washed out, though it shouldn't be a torch per se. As for next weekend into PD, I'm not overly high on anything there myself either, but I'm paying some attention to the trends that we may have some icy mess perhaps as we get into the blocking regime more (or that's what it looks like, at least for some areas). Then of course, there's your favored period beginning around the 20th, and I like how the ensembles have remained pretty rock steady so far on that. It's also good to see a couple of ops runs here and there throw out some nice solutions during that period. That's what we want to see, though the details remain to be ironed out. (ETA: It must help also that we're not coming out of some several week period of Pac puke with absolutely no cold air even in Canada. So not like we should have to take a long time to "restore" the cold air source as we've had happen in the past).

Pretty reasonable for right now. I'm sure that will get refined in the next day or so, and the max areas perhaps become better identified.