Scarlet Pimpernel

Having worked on aspects of the Blend, this is correct. There are indeed some 30-plus pieces of guidance involved which include various global models, their corresponding ensembles, short-range meso models, etc. Actually a lot more when you consider all the ensemble members, though different weather elements use different things. It's quite complicated, actually. The Blend takes in the newest updated cycles as they become available. Note that the Blend cycle time does not actually include models from that cycle (as they wouldn't be available yet), e.g., the 00Z Blend would include models prior to 00Z. So for example, the 00Z blend might include, say, the 12Z Euro, the 18Z GFS, 12Z Canadian, those respective ensemble members, the 22Z HRRR and RAP, the 18Z NAM, etc. You get the idea. The model fields are bias corrected in many cases and MAE (mean absolute error) weighted...though several weather elements use set, specific weights and some are not always bias corrected for things that cannot be. The URMA (unrestricted real-time mesoscale analysis) is used as the background field for bias correcting. It's quite the mental gymnastics exercise to figure out what cycle of what model comes in when, and matching the correct model forecast hour projections to the Blend cycle time and its forecast hours!

Reminds me of that shot of some weather person standing in front of a screen that said "winter storm Janus"... Except where they were standing covered up the "J"!!

So, how's our next fail shaping up?

Thanks. Yeah that certainly makes those plots pretty dubious on the amounts, though perhaps the areal coverage of that ptype might be somewhat more useful. I mean really, 1.50 inches of QPF is not going to give you 1.50 inches of ice of course, to use an extreme example...and which I have actually seen in the past!

Interesting info, thanks. I always take that with a HUGE grain of salt (or sleet?). So are the images that TT and others generate coming directly from model output of this, or do they use some algorithm of their own based on that?

Hahaha! Another bat signal calling @ravensrule on that one!

Exactly. Would need the NS to get in there more rather than staying back and effectively acting as a cold front that goes through later.

And the temps are really barely marginal even at 12z Sunday when precip starts. The cold air really doesn't get in until after that wave departs unfortunately.

Well from what I see it is definitely farther north with the precip. But it's like nearly 45 and rain.

Looks like temperatures are below freezing through at least 12Z Sunday then go up to low-mid 30s around 18Z-ish to 00Z? Then they tank.

Yeah I've heard of that and experienced it to an extent. I grew up in northeast OH, maybe not the western edge of the eastern time zone, but definitely farther out than here on the East Coast. At the time I was growing up the time changes occurred in April/October as I mentioned above. Of course, "springing ahead" was always more physically difficult (still is!). It was also darker in the morning when going off to school, though lighter at the end of the day. I didn't mind DST when it was actually summer, it was kind of nice having light pretty late into the evening and the sun was higher anyhow at that time of year. But the "edges" of DST did kind of suck. That has been exacerbated by moving the start of DST to early-mid March and ending in early-mid November. I just never saw the point of expanding it that much, especially on the early end going into March. But I'm speaking from my experience in a location around this latitude and not the far northern states. I can understand what @MN Transplant was saying above, that higher latitudes would benefit more with a time change.

That has been pretty clear for some time now. My point about post content stands and I'll leave it at that.

One hundred percent your posts continue to lack so much as an iota of insightful content.

We need to appease Jobu. Wake up the snowstorms. Just don't steal his rum...is very bad!

Pretty evident to me by now that this ice event is going to be a northern/western MD, western VA, and north event. I'm sure we may see a couple of stray model runs that look like the colder air is "farther south this run!" but I honestly don't see the overall picture changing much. Sort of like the big New England storm a few weeks back, where we hung on every slight hint of a "closer to the coast" thread. Still, I would not be surprised to see a bit of sleet or ice in the DC metro area at some point.

Personally, I wouldn't mind if we now stay on one or the other (EST/DST) permanently. I suppose in the past it made some sense to "make the most use of" the extended daylight in summer, but that doesn't seem so much of an urgency now. I particularly dislike jumping ahead an hour, like probably most people. I remember when DST/EST used to be 6 months each: you'd set your clock ahead in April, and go back in October. At this point, EST is barely 4 months long. I might have a slight preference for standard time, if only because I think it's a bit silly to begin it in early March, plus even on standard time the evenings are still long in mid-summer. But the main thing is just remaining on one or the other. Hope they really do tie it to many other states doing the same, at least in the eastern time zone; it would be a nightmare if different places had EST part of the time still while others don't.

More like a Monty Python quest, and you know how that turns out!! ETA: Would that be @WinterWxLuvr as King Arthur leading the quest? And maybe @Ji with the coconuts?

God's sake man! Your posts are about the most childish and most devoid of any useful content in here, I swear!

I was just looking at that. Right now, as depicted, it's just a frontal passage in this area. That energy in the southeast gets pushed out to sea.

Yup. We'll see probably several outcomes in the upcoming week. And see if it actually turns into anything for us. But it is worth keeping an eye on like you said earlier and could be one of those "sneaky" events that we weren't much looking at before.

The "CAPE storm" looks like it slides off to the southeast for that Monday. But the signal is still there for what it's worth.

3" of sleet, and if you take the GFS verbatim it would turn into a block of ice that night! I know several in here don't care for sleet or ice, but really that's all we're looking at here for this event in terms of wintry weather. It doesn't really look like we'll get any snow from this. Personally, in that case, I'd prefer a more "interesting" ice/sleet event over a dull, cold rain. But that's just me.

Oh I think it's a traditional CAD situation with that big, cold high to the north pressing in. I know the GFS maybe doesn't handle details of that, especially at this range, yet it's still showing quite the signature. But offsetting that is whether the GFS is possibly overdoing the cold push. Those details remain to be determined, I guess. But if it's pretty well correct in handling the synoptic situation, it could be an ugly ice event (but quite interesting, to be sure!!).

Yeah, even taking the ice accumulation with a huge grain of salt and all, it's a real sleet bomb a bit north of DC and potentially significant ice within the metro area. From what I saw, temperatures around DCA get maybe a bit above freezing, but still at or below that in the NW suburbs and farther out. Don't mean to parse such details at this time, but just what it shows. Looks like after 18Z Friday temperatures drop a good bit.

Now that's the look of a happy skier!!!