Scarlet Pimpernel

GFS has trended colder (especially from its 18Z run yesterday), just looking at the 2-m temperatures at 12Z tomorrow. It's nearly freezing in the metro areas.

Definitely. And this is a highly dynamic setup which helps a lot I'm sure. I suppose this is how they can get similar heavy snow events (relatively speaking) in more southern areas late in the season, even as they also would have a higher sun angle and warmer antecedent ground.

Trying to out-ravensrule RR himself!!

Regarding the "cut back" amounts on the NAM, I wonder how much of this has to do with the SLP placement. Notice at 12Z it is much farther northeast (appears to go where the convection is??). I'm using the 10m wind/SLP plot here from TT because it's less busy and you can see the "L" more clearly than the regular radar/SLP plot:

That's no problem, I get your just wanting spring to get here and stay. Honestly, I'm fine with that myself, after this blast of winter tomorrow. And like I said in the other thread, TULIPS! LOL! Besides, I'd rather read your "don't want snow" comments in a thread that's looking for snow, than Ji's drive-by bombs of incessant childish whining!

Yeah, normally if this were just a bit of white rain with chillier temperatures I wouldn't really care and would think "blah!" But I have to say I'm really into it now given the highly dynamic setup and blast of cold/winter for a day! It'll be in the 60s next week, but it's kinda cool to have winter go out with a literal bang! Just keep thinking TULIPS! They are coming in about another month I believe!! And yes, when they do, photos will be forthcoming!

That seems to be the most notable trend across all models from what I see. Dare I speculate this could sneak its way to an area-wide 2-4" event? In any event, with the wind and temperature drop it's shaping up to feel brutal out starting late morning in the merto areas.

Well, nobody is forcing you to join the quest! It's almost St. Patrick's Day, so it's the time of leprechauns, pots of gold at the end of a rainbow, and I guess unicorns too!

You covet grass?

Thanks, Bob. Appreciate your comments and I agree with most everything you say here. I certainly believe humans have impacted the climate, evidence shows that, and it's happened over a relatively short period of time relative to the scale of eras and whatnot. To what extent or how much it will affect future climate conditions, I don't know exactly. Besides any "climate" concerns, I strongly feel it's a very good idea for us folks to do what we can to take care of things just for our own health and existence. I've felt for some time that we eventually really need to get off our dependence on dead dinosaurs for energy. You mention the climo lines creeping north, and it made me think of something, though this is anecdotal. My home town of Cleveland and northeast Ohio is well north of that "creeping line" (at least for awhile!) compared to here. What I've noticed is that they seem to get more juicy winter events compared to what I grew up with; not to mention lake effect. I think this is reflected in their average snowfall, which has gone up over the years. KCLE averaged about the mid-50" range for snow annually when I was growing up...it's now like 60" or so. I think that's a result of what you mentioned. New England I guess is perhaps in a similar place in that regard.

No blue for you!! We get gray!!

March 32nd...Book it!!!

Not New-Englandy long enough for you?? We should add some more words, maybe the name of that Welsh town that's like 30 something letters! (ETA: Oh, I see the note that you changed the title...don't know what it was originally!!)

Are snow maps welcome??

Agree...and good points again about the number of single-digit seasons in the DC area over time, with the mean being fluffed somewhat by the more extreme events. Here's a question, though maybe you implied this in your discussion here: How much of the "fewer marginal events" are due more to lower level BL temperatures above the surface? Or even upwards of 850mb? So maybe the surface would be OK for snow with good rates (33-35 degrees, say), but what would have previously been "cold enough" at, say, 925mb or a bit above is now "too warm" and you don't get as much snow (white rain, etc.). That all kind of fits in with the general warming climate I believe.

Some very good points. It almost makes me think if something like Commutageddon (Jan. 2011) would even work out as well or at all in the cities anymore, if it were to occur today. It was a marginal event, at least near the surface. That may not be the best example, as that was very dynamically driven with intense uplift and I believe the 850 temps crashed. So perhaps not quite fair. But you get the idea. It was like 33-35, there about, while it was snowing hard for like 5 hours. A perfect paste job. Right after the snow ended it started melting underneath (at least on roads), before everything froze later that night as temperatures finally dropped.

I would guess all or nearly all that falls between ~15Z-20Z, there about, before it hauls ass out of here. At least that is what appeared to be when precip would be frozen. ETA: I'm talking more in the metro areas, but I'd still think most of it falls for the N/W folks in that same time period as well.

Every word is 26+ letters and cannot be pronounced!! Oh, and the corgis may be getting nervous there too!!

Interesting...thanks for that! I've only heard lilt applied to Irish and brogue to Scottish. Didn't know "lilt" came from a style of singing like that. Either way...Scottish or Irish, brogue or lilt...the sheep are getting nervous!! I'm reminded of an Irish bar I had gone to in Atlanta, they had a regular there who came in to sing, etc., and he was really good. For one song that required "audience participation,", he said "if you're American you say 'more sex', if you're English you say 'more beer!' and if you're Scottish you say 'more sheep!'" LOL!!

<Scottish accent>Get 'yer accents right, laddie, and have another dram! Don't put that green beer piss down 'yer gullet!</Scottish accent> The Irish have a LILT, the Scots have a BROGUE! That said, I agree...don't care to be near an Irish pub or anything on that day either. Even when I was younger and though it would be cool to go, it was nearly impossible to get in anywhere anyhow, everything was packed to the gills.

LOL!! Yeah, the only forecast that's easy to make and be 100% correct about! The 18Z doesn't look overly different if you compare to the 06Z or even 00Z, at least in terms of what it shows for sensible weather. Obviously 12Z was a "better look." The trough axis looks kind of different each cycle, which I'm sure plays some role. As well as how rapidly the cold air comes in. It's a bit warmer at 18Z Saturday in this run, compared to the 12Z run. ETA: The low of interest is also more southwest of here at 12Z, and deeper, for what that is worth at this point.

Well, it's pretty clear that we'll have some blast of cold come in on Saturday. The key is, does the frontal wave develop "in time" for us or not? That low does blow up as it moves rapidly northeast. But we'd need it to be in a place that is still giving us precip when it does cool off. ETA: Best example offhand that I can think of is March 5, 2015. Which was probably about as perfect a scenario as you can get. Cold front moved through early in the morning with rain, there was a lull, and then the wave moved through dumping 6"+ snow on us in about 6 hours or so.

Looks like it is pushing the colder air in faster as well, at 850 hPa and the surface (between 12-18Z), and it looks colder at the surface by 18Z while there's still precip around it appears. In any event, it could end as a neat burst of snow as the cold blasts in.