Scarlet Pimpernel

So...stayed up until near midnight last night. Got @stormtracker's buzzed/drunken PBP for the GFS (F the GFS!!), which did it's usual sucking...@Ralph Wiggum's 15-yard personal foul penalty and red card call on the CMC, which then looked like a bomb. Decided not to stay up for the Euro. Come in this morning expecting pages of ugh!, only to find the Euro bombs us again at both 00Z and 06Z, and now the 06Z GFS is coming more in line with a good storm! Nice surprise to wake up to! Let's bring this MF-er FOLKS storm home!

Hahaha! I definitely remember those days, counting each word to make sure I got at least the minimum in those 500 or 1000 word essay type assignments! And they'd always tell you that short words didn't count (like "a", "and", "the", "or"...)!!

You can always call @Jebman, he'll come by with his shovel to dig you out!

And serves $138 steaks!

Don't tell us that you abandoned Jesus for the GFS!!

As long as you can still say "F the GFS!!" and "FOLKS!!!"

Ate them all during the Super Bowl???

C'mon man! You need the DGEX for that at this range!

I think many people forget that the 06Z GFS last Saturday was dumping 40"+ over the area for this storm.

It's the NAVY model...of course it's, uhhhh, at sea!

Yeah...SOME people will flip out if we don't keep seeing 20"+ every single run. Would I love to see that, like we saw for the 2016 blizzard? Hell yes! But I don't expect that to keep showing up. As I said before, a solid cold-powder moderate or better event would still be amazing.

Absolutely. There is definitely cause for caution (though NOT freaking out at every damned model cycle!), which I think nearly everyone here has. I seriously doubt the Euro shows the amazing solution we saw at 12Z, that is probably an upper end or nearly so. At the same time, I don't think a slight "decrease" in snow amounts would mean "OMG, panic, the Euro is going the way of the GFS!!". Key for me at least is to see the same overall evolution, and hope the GFS/GEFS at some point soon starts indicating the same. If you look at the range of reasonable solutions, I have to think we're looking at a solid, decent SECS to MECS event, and perhaps more if things phase just right. No, we may not get 20" but I would still love to see a widespread 6-10" or 8-12" of cold freakin' powder that would stick around for a few days at least, given how cold the temperatures look!

I thought it was 17.8". Seems that specific location cannot measure more than that even if a short distance away gets well over 20"!!! (OK, I think DCA did record around 19" for the PD-I storm but all the other big ones since, seem to have been stuck at literally 17.8!!!)

I hope today's Euro ended up verifying!! LOL!!! PSU Hoffman: "Heavy snow will begin about...NOW!" Awed Weenies: "Whoooa, how did he know that?!"

PSU actually took a DeLorean to 88MPH and ended up in the future next week. He's come back to tell us about it...

That is actually on display in a secret part of the Louvre. It's a lesser known da Vinci portrait (popular among snow enthusiasts). Viewing by appointment only. Even Leonardo himself said he liked it more than that over-hyped Mona Lisa thing. Actually, since it's from the ECMWF, perhaps it should be in the British Museum!!

That last panel kinda looks like the "shocked" face there! But seriously...hopefully this look can hold on as we get closer to the event, etc.

I think @stormtracker would say the GFS can go do something with itself (the "other" F word)!!

(that "ff" must be for FFolks!!!)

Beethoven meets the @Bob Chill "shock/OMG" face!! (gotta admit, that does look a little creepy...but hell, with that Euro run, creepy is good!)

5" here in Bethesda as of 9PM. Still snowing at a good rate! I know this will be gone by Thursday but wow, what a fun storm!

Exactly! Thank you for a voice of reason, Bob. There will be several solutions every model cycle and as I said a few times already in here, no point in fretting over every ops run at this point in time. I will say that I do like seeing the ops at this range showing hits, or hints of hits. I'd almost be more worried if nothing was showing up while the ensemble mean pattern was looking amazing (kind of like last year?). As for NYC, didn't they have that run of 40"+ for like 3 years in a row during the heater you were referring to? Thanks again for your thoughts and very "Chill" attitude and viewpoint!