Scarlet Pimpernel

Thank you for summing up the Cleveland Guardians so well! (But seriously they had a great season so I cannot complain.) Or to use a football analogy, something my brother said years ago when the Browns had Bernie Kosar. He joked about the typical "Kosarian drive"... 85 yards, chew up 10 minutes on the clock...and settle for a field goal!

And an interesting broad, sort of squashed, trough underneath the block and downstream of that ridge. Whether that's necessarily good, I'm not sure, but I like that look.

I won't worry about whatever "typical Nina" indices may or may not occur. It's now December 13, we are looking at some unreal cold (compared to much of the past decade of Decembers!), and quite possibly some snow that's more than a dusting. If we urp up a hairball and don't get anything other than chapped skin from cold and dry, will I be disappointed? Yeah, of course, as will everyone here! I personally don't think that will occur (and I don't have a cat, but people in my family do, and an urped up hairball is disgusting!). But all the same...we have Jan-Feb-Mar left after this and I don't see us getting only diddly squat that whole time. Last year, we had the one early January event that mostly affected DC southward, and a nifty final event in mid-March. But last February sucked as did December. So there's that.

Well to be fair, those Europeans like keeping things too warm over in these parts! (ETA: And I was referring to the current run of the GFS and to @CAPE's comment, not to the 12Z ops Euro that was posted before).

Someone engaging in a meltdown over an ops run 10+ days out? Say it ain't so! That person you infer probably has 2 letters in their name, involving the 9th and 10th letters of the alphabet?

That's what it looked like to me. I know, parsing details of a model some 10 days out, but still. That's one hella dynamic system there and if it happens that way I could see a burst of heavy snow right as temps crash. Not like a huge amount, but still. In that Feb. 2014 event, I got about 2" in less than 2 hours as that Arctic front breezed through. This looks more intense than that. If something like that happened, probably nearly all of us would be pitching tent...so to speak!

Oy Gevalt! A 20 degree difference between PG and MoCo in that 1st panel! Now...if we can get a nice little wave to propagate up the front...well...hmmmm!

Perhaps something like Feb. 14, 2015...or even more so??

GFS drinking vodka cold for HH today???

I'm not so sure I totally agree, but I do understand what you're saying. I lived for several years in the Capitol Hill neighborhood of DC, and DCA itself wasn't the most representative for snow and even temps on many occasions even there. I'd argue the National Arboretum (in DC Northeast) was a better match to what I experienced near Constitution Ave. and 9th St. NE and then around H St. NE...the two areas I lived while in that neighborhood. When I moved more northwest to Silver Spring and then to Bethesda...still in and around the Beltway...DCA was even farther off. I'd say I get more a cross between DCA and BWI, sort of. But I don't think DCA itself is representative of the entire area within the Beltway. There are many times I've seen snowfall reports from locations within the District itself that were notably more than what the DCA airport recorded, and not all those places were necessarily in far DC Northwest either (which is elevated).

That just has nasty, raw (and rainy, at least near metro areas) day written all over it.

Or watching TV and suddenly hearing that "emergency" tone with the crawler at the bottom showing school and other closures...sitting there on the edge waiting to see that your school was listed! Yeah, old enough to remember that! And listening to the radio stations that gave that information too! (ETA: And I'm reminded of something a friend told me years ago when I was an undergrad at Purdue. He started there a year before me, and on this brutally cold day was listening to see if the university was shut down...apparently the person on the radio station got tired of listing EVERYTHING in the state of Indiana and eventually said "Oh, hell with it! Everything in the state of Indiana is closed. Except for Purdue University, you have normal classes today!" Needless to say, nobody was happy having to trek out in bitter cold and wind to their classes at 7:30AM.)

You need to set that to music. I kind of envision it to the tune of "Twelve Days of Christmas".

Evidently a very strong one?

Gonna need a bigger pair of pants for that!

Uh oh...Bob Chill got a couple of weenie tags chucked at him for this comment. Now we know sh*t's goin' down!!!

That is wonderful!!! You have every reason to be proud. I felt the same when my daughter would take part in the Nutcracker this time of year. Lots of work (for her AND the parents!), but it was actually fun and in some ways I miss doing all that.

@mappy, how did mini-map's dance recital go the other day?? Hope all went well and that you had fun!

Hell at this point it's like a glorified occluded front passage!

LOL! Fair enough, was just curious. Like I said it just reminded me of seeing cars come by from places like Ashtabula or Chardon Ohio after a lake effect snow, as if they came from another world!

Totally agree. I'm not going to get worked up over this event later next week. My focus is more on mid-month and beyond, and hopefully this advertised pattern that looks awesome gets us something by the end of the month. By the way, clskinsfan...off the wall question that I have been meaning to ask. I've always liked your icon photo of the car with the mound of snow on the roof! Where did you get that or what's it from? It kind of reminds me of being in northeast Ohio, when I'd see all these people from the main snowbelt areas driving by with a similar mound of snow on their cars. Almost as if they were showing off!!

Exactly what I was thinking when I saw those 850mb temps and the overall setup. It's an interesting evolution of a storm, to be sure (if it plays out that way), but for anyone outside the western and north-central parts of the forum, you cannot realistically expect to see much (if any?) accumulating snow. I'm speaking from the metro DC area, just north of the Beltway, so one's mileage may vary. There is zero decent cold air leading into it. But...that said...I think if it works out many of us can at least maybe see some flakes after it goes by. Again, this is the correct attitude I think. Sure a fluke would be nice but for much of the sub forum that's looking like a cold rain and maybe (??) some bit of snow either right at the start and/or at the end. I think it's just "too early" in the season with no real cold already in place. If it were farther along in the season, might be a different story. I'm kind of a lot more interested in what happens after this system, when we might actually have some real cold to deal with and other factors in our favor.

The pants, they be a-tentin'!!!