Scarlet Pimpernel

Thanks for this. It's kind of what I was trying to say in part in my comment above, but you worded it a lot better. That's the idea I was trying to get across, what you said, about an increase in variability even as the base state becomes overall warmer. And I think what you said about NYC is kind of true here, to a lesser extent: there are more NESIS-level storms in the past 20 years, though fewer in this area compared to farther north of course. And fewer of the smaller but still fun events.

There's been a long debate, as I understand, about how representative or not DCA is for "The District" (and the immediate inside-the-beltway area around there) when it comes to snowfall. Seems there's always a debate after every HECS. Not sure about temperatures. It may be pretty well spot-on in terms of the urban heat island effects within the District itself. But snow? My own experience is that for several of those big storms, like 2016, DCA has notably less than reports that come out of several locations within the District; places like the National Arboretum, Capitol Hill, and the northwest areas of the city that all typically report. I used to live in the Capitol Hill neighborhood (up until 2009) and would almost always have more than what DCA officially listed, even for more modest events. It's tricky, of course, because even within DC there are elevation and other variations that can impact such measurements. ETA: Now all that said, using the measurements at DCA to note any trends at that location is still worthwhile I would think. For whatever that is worth. I don't really want to get much into the statistical argument that has been raging here the past couple of days other than to say I feel the trends have been clear, even when only taking the National Airport location itself since 1941 and discarding the previous "DC" measurement location in upper NW near Georgetown. And one other thing: I don't totally agree with a comment made that global warming necessarily equals "fewer big storms." In fact, I believe it's been argued that the opposite is true, at least to some extent, though the snowfall impact might be even more restricted to areas that can get cold enough. Relatively warmer atmosphere, more moisture...and so if you're lucky enough to have the right thermal profile and setup (which we still do get here!) at the right time, you can get a huge HECS-level event like a Jan. 2016. And I tend to agree with @psuhoffman and some others concerning the more "marginal" events around DC: that they do seem to be fewer. I know that's anecdotal and could be related to other factors and trends as well, but even still.

Yeah that is true. And I actually missed it, was up in Ohio for New Year's and drove back that very day of the storm! LOL! So got back home right after it was done. I literally drove through the snow gradient going south on I-270, from nothing to a dusting, to couple inches and finally 6 inches or so at my place.

Yeah, DC got nothing in December, and then had that one good storm on Jan. 3 last year, followed by some good cold. A few days after the 3rd, we got some kind of clipper(?) system that dropped a couple inches of powder on top. So January was pretty good for this area. February, as I recall, pretty well sucked for everyone, but then we got that one neat "last farewell" event in mid-March.

There could be a 50/50 low but the placement is not ideal for us to get snow here. If you look, the location of the tree (which will deposit our 50/50) is too close to the curtained window on the right, which makes the spacing too tight. The shelf above the fireplace is also too flat, which does not allow much room for digging. And the fireplace! Now there's our problem. It's pumping heat into the entire scene, and until we can get rid of that Pac Puke, I'm afraid our chances of any sustained snow window relies solely on good luck. However, just to prove I'm not a total pessimist, the snowman and Santa Clause shortwave there in the southwest corner looks like it could be a sneaky event. I've seen situations like that before and they produce some good snow, even in DC. Not a HECS, but enough to make most everyone here happy. Except for Ji, of course. Now, for some even better news going forward. Near the edge of the left side of the picture (beyond where our snowman/Santa chance is), you'll see a hint of a coat rack with a coat there. That vortex is gradually shifting west which would allow the fireplace Pac Puke to also shift west and result in more buckling of the flow. Once that happens, we'll be in for a more favorable period. It will also shorten the distance between the two stockings and the "H" over the fireplace, which gives us several opportunities. But we have to exercise patience, something that's sorely lacking in this forum. But I do expect a better pattern that can produce. Can things go wrong? Sure, that snowman/Santa wave could just get squashed and we get nothing followed by a period of crap. The coat rack and coat might not move far enough out of the picture to allow for a favorable wave train. In which case, we should close the blinds until next Christmas when I set up the tree again. But in all honesty, I don't expect that worst case scenario to happen. Indications are that the progression I described above are already in motion.

Merry Christmas to you as well!! Or if you prefer to go all out Pagan, happy Saturnalia!!

Same where I'm at, that thick, sparkly frost! Though today, fortunately, I don't have to care about scraping and melting it off the car! Good thing there will be a lot of baking going on today, it's nice and toasty inside!

Happy Christmas to you as well PSU!! And to all my other mid-Atlantic forum friends! Nice tree and decoration by the way! (And if I may share ours...)

Happy Christmas to all!!! Best wishes for the season! Icy Dreams...

Thank you for sharing that!!

Haha, well, he really didn't care for Maazel at all! My dad definitely knew his music. I don't think he would have really boycotted going to the orchestra, he more or less "put up" with Maazel at the time. His feeling was that the Cleveland Orchestra was still so well disciplined and good, despite him! As I understand it, Lorin Maazel was controversial and not overly liked at least initially but he sort of improved over time before he left.

He definitely is the Gold Standard for a chorale orchestra! When I was in Atlanta in the late 1990s into the 2000s, as I probably mentioned before, I had the good fortune to hear the ASO and chorus do a Christmas concert, and was able to hear the chorus for Beethoven's 9th. Though he wasn't there anymore (sadly passed away in 1999), you could STILL hear his influence on that magnificent choir! And on the subject of orchestras and Beethoven (who else!!)...I have a recording of all of his symphonies and piano concertos, recorded when George Szell was director of the Cleveland Orchestra. And a copy of the 9th when Christoph von Dohnanyi was music director. My dad gave me those years ago. He was a BIG orchestra buff, especially of the Cleveland Orchestra, and heard both Szell and von Dohnanyi when they conducted. But he couldn't stand Lorin Maazel (he was director after Szell and before von Dohnanyi), found him a travesty in his interpretations, and damn near stopped going to the orchestra during those years. Anyhow, Szell and von Dohnanyi are both amazing!!! It's interesting comparing von Dohnanyi to Szell for the 9th...both are very fine in their own right; von Dohnanyi's version, however, has a bit more "pep" to it I find (especially the 2nd movement).

Took these today. I think my camera handled the cold better than my hands, it was brutal in the wind! Blowing in the Arctic wind... Cold evening, warm glow...

@Maestrobjwa, thought you would appreciate this. Currently listening to one of my favorite Christmas CDs, "A Festival of Carols", with the great Robert Shaw as Chorale director. He was with both the Cleveland Orchestra and Atlanta Symphony. His chorale direction was impeccable!

Burst of snow here in Bethesda (upper Bethesda or lower Rockville, take your pick!), with some decent size flakes! First flakes I've seen all season, other than some members of this forum!

LOL!! By the way I was going to reply on a comment you made the other day, when someone showed one model's radar simulation with the rain/snow in a near-perfect straight line north-to-south over Ohio. You said something like "Even snow doesn't want to go to Ohio!" Too damned lazy to go find the exact post...but as a native Ohioan, I found your comment particularly funny!! Now, not to get overly controversial or political here, but I will say I AGREE!! My home state has gone cuckoo nutterville in a lot of ways over the years, and I just shake my head!!

Maybe I'll just invest in black paint and paint over the windows for good! Hell, that might keep the sun from beating down inside during the summer...an extra benefit!!

Interesting you mention this. I take it you mean that this Arctic blast isn't something that will be ushering in a week or so of good cold but that it kind of retreats pretty quickly (like shortly after this Christmas weekend). Why I said it's interesting is because it's not just here, but even those areas out in the midwest that will be even colder than us, they look to warm up soon after as well at about the same time as us.

Good points. I'd be curious how many of those December snows you list were very discrete single events that occurred at just the right time in an otherwise crap pattern, but we lucked out, as opposed to a good stretch of decent cold and we at least managed something.

Yeah those December snow events tend to stay in one's memory and perhaps exaggerate the possibilities every December from then on. We've certainly had some good ones, like the "Dec. 5 snows" around here and of course the HECS in 2009 (a highly anomalous event to be sure). We've also had some good cold, like 2009 and 2010, and at least this upcoming weekend this year. But we've also had lots and lots of "blah" with 40s and 50s, and the unreal April-like December in 2015 (still recall it being almost uncomfortably muggy out on Christmas Eve that year!). Others can chime in on what particular Nino state we had or the specific pattern, but surely that played a role too of course. I've found March has been a surprisingly wintry month here in a lot of years. I know most around here don't care for snow in March because it doesn't normally stay around, but it is cool when it happens. 2014 comes to mind as perhaps the most with 3 solid events that month (Mar. 2, Mar. 17, Mar. 25) and even a quick inch on Mar. 30. But we've had several other March events that were advisory to warning-level criteria. Even the one last year, it wasn't a lot of snow (~2-3" where I am), but it occurred in rapidly falling temperatures along with some wind; I was out taking photos during that one, and believe me, it was quite cold!

How are the Flyers doing???

If the power goes, you might not have to "work" anyhow!! But seriously, I really hope power doesn't go tomorrow, and if so that the worst it does is cut in and out now and then for only brief moments.

I know we're not really looking at much snow tomorrow as the Arctic front blasts through, and it would have been nice to score a couple quick inches as it breezes through (like Feb. 14, 2015). Maybe we can get an hour of some snow showers though? But still, I strangely find myself pretty interested...even kind of excited...to experience such and event. Just hoping the power doesn't go out. I've almost been preparing today as I would before a snow event, making sure the car is fueled up (just in case), getting things done shopping-wise before the weekend, etc. Of course, some of that is due to Christmas; tomorrow and Saturday would be an absolute mess regardless of the weather, so best to get that completely done now! If you think of it, outside the disappointing lack of snow, this should be very impressive. Dropping from the 40s-50 or so into the teens by early afternoon, and even into the single digits overnight in the metro DC/Balt area (with no snow cover), then two days of rather bitter cold (again with no snow cover). The temperatures indicated in the official forecast and in the models are numbers I haven't seen around here in some time, and even then maybe once or twice since I moved here (2001). The temperature drop expected tomorrow morning, as well as the literal blast of wind and cold we're looking at, remind me of the Ohio Blizzard of 1978. In that amazing storm, temperatures dropped 30 degrees in a two hour period (from mid 40s to mid-teens, eventually dropping into the single digits), along with a huge blast of wind and blizzard conditions.