Scarlet Pimpernel

@psuhoffman, this is a very interesting potential, even if it's not quite so likely at this point. I'm talking your 2nd one, where the trailing wave is actually "the" one. Haven't we seen this either occur before, or looked like it could happen but was too little too late for our area? The scenario sounds a bit familiar from previous events in the past. So it doesn't seem all that wild to keep in mind.

Sounds like the 'Noles during the UGA-FSU game from this weekend!

See, technically you didn't state what you decided to stop drinking. So it's all good!!!

Whelp...on to February and March then!!!

Yeah, but make sure you don't slant-mow!! That's cheating!

My assessment of the 12Z model suite today...

Maybe "debunked" wasn't the correct term...what I meant was, the amount of data "sampled" isn't much different nowadays for any given model cycle. Reading what you say here, however, I realize you meant the data itself will be different (of course) as you move closer-in. I can get that...and sorry if I was a bit harsh in my comment, but there's always this "thing" that different model cycles are "better or worse" due to how much data that was input to them.

Wasn't the whole "sampling" thing (@dtk??) sort of debunked some time ago? As in, it's not really an issue with today's NWP. That's always brought up with every storm still, at least in terms of the 00/12Z suites vs. 06/18Z. Things may change or "trend" (such as it is), but that's not really due to "better sampling."

LOL!!! Well, it's not the "jinxes", it's the same cadre of people who freak out when things look less favorable after they see a couple of runs that looked great. And sadly, some of those who "freak out" are the more knowledgeable ones, not that they tear hair out and whine like some others, but discussion gets slanted in a doom-and-gloom manner (and yes, talk of "trends!!!"). I'm certainly not one who wants to put my fingers in my ears and cry "lalalala, I can't hear you!" when there's not so good news, but we also don't need incessant repeating "look how all this is wrong!" with every model run that "suddenly" isn't as favorable.

Yup, that was discussed...and yup, the freak-outs are regular as clockwork!! People went ga-ga over a couple of runs that gave the DC metro area a foot (admittedly, I got excited too of course!). And you know, we could well "fail" at least I-95 east. But even with a "fail" for that area, I still think nearly all of us see some snow, and not just the less than an inch "surprise" we got back in December. I think we get on the board with decent amounts, and by decent I mean a couple of inches or so. Won't be perfect and temperatures aren't the best, but whatever. A few days ago we were all looking at rain. Of course, those farther west should score pretty big almost regardless of any solution.

Interesting discussion on all the "old" history of this site and its predecessors. I recall first finding this when it was Eastern US Weather Forums, in January or February 2009. Strangely, prior to that I was looking at the Accu-Weather forums just to see some discussion but it was a bit jumbled with the organization and didn't like it so much. Someone on there had a link or a reference to Eastern, so I checked it out and was hooked since! I didn't join at that time, just read to get information. The first "real" storm I remember following on Eastern was the early March 2009 event (if anyone else recalls that?), actually staying up late through that weekend reading GFS and Euro discussions! There wasn't as much talk of ensembles at the time. I then officially joined Eastern sometime later in 2009, in time for the amazing winter that year!! Then it got transferred to American Weather Forums I think around January 2011? So anyone who had an account on Eastern could "re-start" on AmWX. Oh and on a different topic...I know people joke (sort of) about the weekend rule and snowstorms around here! Total chance I'm sure that a decent majority tend to occur at that point in a week. But if you think of it, and if you consider a "weekend" to be Fri-Sat-Sun-Mon (I'm allowing for a day either side, for Monday holidays and for storms that may start just before and continue through the weekend)...that's 4 of 7 days. So just statistically, you should have storms that tend to occur in that time range!

Thank you, Red!

Not to get too far off-topic (but we're not in storm mode or anything yet!)...but yeah, they are large birds!! And you can hear their call quite clearly and far away (very distinctive). They don't seem to mind people just sitting there watching them even fairly close. I'd say I was a few yards down from this tree looking up at him, and was using a 500mm lens when I took that. I literally took a dozen or so shots at different angles, and saved the better ones (some were blurry because his head was moving too fast).

OK, so we've had talk of squirrels, big dogs (NOT Dawgs, damn you Georgia!), ducks, albatrosses, whatever. But how about a pileated woodpecker? Saw this guy digging away at a tree nearby where I'm at...he just went about his business and didn't mind me standing there taking several photos. You can see some of the wood chips he tossed aside. I hear when a woodpecker is busy, it portends a snowstorm. Well, not really, but it sounds good!

Better be careful, that's close to pushing @ravensrule's bat signal right there! He's already answered a couple of inadvertent ones earlier in this thread! But seriously, yes, hoping the 18Z GFS keeps this thing going. We're going to see things move around back and forth (with attendant mood swings in here every blasted model cycle!), but it would be nice to keep this storm there and alive.

Better than shitting the blinds, that's for sure!!

Since I have some family members who went to Michigan (and I was one of about 3 people in my HS in Ohio who rooted for them in the UM/OSU game each year!!)...GO BLUE!!! I'd kinda like to see a UM-Wash final, or at least any final without 'Bama in it (always have been "ABB"...Anybody But 'Bama!!). Anyone think that if the winner of the CFP is one of the teams with a loss, that there'd be a TON of "unofficial" discussion about whether UGA should actually be #1? I say this as NO fan of UGA, but consider this: Georgia had that insane win vs. FSU in the Orange Bowl (albeit against an essentially 3rd string Noles team) and they lost by just 3 points in their conference championship to Alabama. Other than the Alabama game, they were dominant this season, really. Regardless, it certainly makes next year's expanded playoff all the more welcoming!

Happy New Year all! Let's hope we can pull in an area-wide solid event this upcoming weekend. It's been far too long since we could actually track something realistic and more than a car-topper. I put this in the medium-range thread at midnight last night, so re-posting here in Banter!! Trading Places...still a hilarious movie!!!

Merry New Year 2024!!!

Just going by memory here, but Commutageddon as I recall was a much more dynamic system (i.e., 500 mb). Rain changed to sleet/ice...literally like chunks of ice falling from the sky for awhile!...and then to heavy snow. Lasted about 5 or so hours (8" snow in that time where I am). (ETA: There was some snow that fell in the early morning too, I seem to remember?)

Trend? Or the Base State??? (I'm not one to talk, as a Cleveland sports fan, where the base state is always "sucks!" )

Wow, FSU is just plain awful. They should just forfeit the 2nd half rather than allow UGA to score another 42 or more points. I say this as an FSU grad (for graduate school). Honestly, they deserve a triple ass-kicking after some 20 of their players decided to "opt out" of playing in the Orange Bowl, either by going into the NFL draft early or into the "transfer pool." I get that there's hard feeling after being snubbed for the final 4 playoff teams, but come on, stick with the team for a high-end bowl game rather than deplete what you have and get embarrassed on the field. Obviously without injured QB Jordan Travis they're not the same team already. But they surely would have been able to compete and stick with UGA if all those other players didn't run off in the last two weeks. UGA is playing against a 3rd string team at this point. Which begs the question...if all the 4 playoff teams end up with one loss, would one actually be able to consider UGA for the Nat'l Champion despite not being in those playoff games? I'm far from a UGA fan, but you do have to wonder. For now, I'm all in for Michigan to win it all...Go Blue!!!

Sadly, Google translate doesn't help with that. There's no "Chuck to English" option!!!! But hieroglyphics works.

Right, and instead of 300+ hour ops GFS plots that look like crap, we get 72+ hour NAM plots that are the equivalent in the short range!!! Bring on the CRAS and (now defunct) DGEX!!!!

Damn, the Panic Room has really devolved, hasn't it?!?!