Scarlet Pimpernel

I've discovered a general rule concerning the medium range thread. Perhaps this is obvious, but still. It's all in whom I see posted last when I check, like who's avatar icon I see as the last poster in a thread... If it's @Ji or @osfan24 or even @Heisy, especially if there are multiple posts in a row, then I know things have probably gone to hell in a handbasket and it's perhaps not worth looking much at that time. If it's @psuhoffman, I know I'll need to set aside some reading time (a few hours!), but it's usually difficult to say initially whether there's bad or good news until reading! But I still appreciate his analysis and input. If it's @brooklynwx99, @MillvilleWx, @CAPE, @WxUSAF, or @Bob Chill, I can count on some good analysis as well, and likely fairly positive! If it's @clskinsfan, I know we'll see the term "beatdown" at least once, so it's worth a look at what's going on even if it's for the more western crew! If it's @stormtracker, I expect Jaws music! If it's @H2O, I expect some good, funny memes dammit! If it's @Weather Will, I'll need to clear my internet cache to allow for more images. If it's @WxWatcher007, we'll see shots of the Reaper enjoying retirement, likely involving his skeleton crew sipping a few tropical drinks on the beach!! If it's @Maestrobjwa, I expect something about Beethoven! If it's @yoda, I expect several CVS receipt length copy/pastes of the latest warnings! If it's at @ravensrule, well, nothing need be said! I'll look for the comments that inspired the innuendo!!! And finally, if it's @Scarlet Pimpernel, I just ignore what the hell he has to say!!! I'm sure others can add to this checklist!!

Exactly. I don't expect this to be a situation like the big storms (at least not now, maybe another time??), where every model has it for days on end because the setup is clear and obvious. But...it's nice to see an increase in favorable setups for that time right after what looks to be a cutter next weekend. Heck, the GFS has shown a decent looking event around the 16-17th somewhat consistently and I know the ensembles have hit that period as well. And it's staying in that same time frame, not moving forward all the time.

A more horizontal avocado...perhaps a plantain?

But those Squishable avocadoes are so...damned cute!! (Yes, I have one!)

What's 20mb and a few hundred miles among friends???

That's one scary looking puppy!!! LOL!!!

Amazing how the rates picked up today as soon as the snow changed to rain!!

That Hitler parody was a true work of art...hilarious!!! (If something about Hitler can be considered amusing? Like "The Producers"?). Must have taken some work to add those subtitles to that scene.

He made a severe weather one as well?? Don't think I ever saw it, so yeah if you find that one it would be great!

As you wish (still had a link somewhere in my bookmarks!)...

I'll take that as a compliment!!

I wrote that fine work of literature while drinking a nice Chardonnay! (and let my inner PSU flow!)

The problem is the base state of your beer fridge has changed such that the alcohol content isn't what it was years ago. We cannot use beer analogs that we did in the past. I don't even see the Laughing Cow cheese in there, and to me that's telling. In all years that the SBFI was strongly positive, that cheese was in there. I'm seriously concerned what this can mean for future parties at your house. They just won't be the same. That gap on the bottom shelf on the right near the Sprite, never would occur with all those fine IPAs on the shelf above! In previous winters, we could expect the IPAs to overcome that. But here we are. Now don't get me wrong, I'm not saying we'll never drink beer again! But those who don't care to read the next 6 paragraphs (not included) can just stop here and I'll leave them with an artificial beer buzz. Those who care to remain in the reality based refrigerator, however, please read on...

The Oliphant in the room?

Build the world's smallest snowman???

No kidding! It goes from some decent discussion on how things could look pretty good the 2nd half of this month (and beyond?) to how everything just sucks and we're doomed no matter what. Drives me insane (not that I had far to go, hahaha!). There seems to be two lines of conversation in there...one talking about the upcoming few weeks, and another discussing how the longer term trends are all but unfavorable no matter what. Personally, I'm just looking and hoping for some decent or better chances as this winter progresses...I understand the longer term tendencies but at this point does it matter whether or not we can "catch up to the long term snow normals?" We all know how that's changed over time, but can't we just look at this winter in relative isolation and try to find some positive signs for decent snow, without relating it to the overall long term climo???

"Breaking Away" is an excellent movie for sure!

You mean THESE Cutters??? I count 4 of them...

Both are S-L-O-W, regardless, if you want to get anywhere!!

LOL, is it sucking you back in?? I've about given up much caring about this where I'm at, but yeah, now I suddenly feel a spark of re-interest!

I admit to not knowing all the nuances of the MJO, though do know the "warm" and "cold" phases...and don't know how much the ENSO state alters that. But I have noticed what you're saying here in the past few years. I can't remember which winter it was recently, but I definitely recall where the MJO was supposed to go into the favorable 8-1-2 phases, and at ridiculously high amplitude. There was a good bit of talk about how that would turn things around and lots of hope, blah blah blah...and in the end, not much changed. I'm not saying that the MJO is useless or unimportant by any means, but I just don't know how much of a role it plays or how it modulates depending on various states (ENSO, blocking, etc.). ETA: I have noticed that when things look like shit, there's all kinds of attention paid to the MJO as well as the state of the stratospheric vortex and whether it will be disrupted, etc. When things are doing fine, you don't hear anything about those, or very little.

I know, right?! As if there's some magic to whether or not one is issued. Same with blizzard warnings, I swear some people almost seem upset when one is not issued during a major storm and we "only" have a winter storm warning. FFS, people, you get 15" snow and think less of it due to not meeting the technicality of "blizzard!" (ETA... And yeah a watch is issued when the potential exists to meet warning-criteria snow over an area, and will be refined later. Not a guarantee you'll get that!)

Thanks for this description, PSU...couldn't have said it better myself...spot on! I know this particular person tends to diss models quite often, and to a point I get that. People can mis-use them or take some output too much at face value. However, as you say, they ARE guidance, not forecasts. Well, perhaps more precisely, each model is a forecast SIMULATION of what the atmosphere would do given a suitable set of initial conditions and the model's own programmed physics and thermodynamics. It will never be perfect...at least not anytime soon!...because our ability to perfectly model the atmosphere is limited, though it has dramatically improved over the decades. Even the initial conditions themselves are subject to errors or limitations, being on a discrete grid (plus observation measurement errors, etc.). I also get a little miffed at this person's occasional statements that ensembles essentially throw out "every possible solution." Or something to that effect. Ensembles DO NOT do this, nor are they intended to do so. They are intended to provide probabilistic information and uncertainty, WITHIN THE CONFINES OF THAT MODEL'S PHYSICS. Obviously there are certain assumptions, such as for a given ensemble suite of a particular base model (GFS, Euro, etc.), each member in that suite has equally likely outcome. Based on that and other theoretical considerations, this is why the use of the ensemble mean for many parameters (e.g., 500 mb heights) is considered to be the best estimate of an outcome in the medium to longer range. Or why it's good to look at solution clusters. The ops of a particular model is essentially just a high res ensemble member when you're looking at that time frame. Which is obviously why it's annoying for people to toss out a crappy looking 300+ hour GFS deterministic forecast just to make some point about how we suck or whatever. I know this is very simplified and general, what I said here, but you get the idea.

There is some pretty serious cold behind that avocado as the cutter passes, to be sure. Both at the surface and 850 mb.