Scarlet Pimpernel

Those handful of posters you mentioned are good and worth paying attention to for sure. Unfortunately, you also have to sift through all the chaff (i.e., bullshit!) from those who inundate threads with complaining comments! But don't let that deter you! There is a lot of good information in here despite that.

Well, I'm not one of those who will sh*t all over a thread because I'm pissed the models suck for snow! Don't get me wrong, I surely get disappointed when things don't work, but I don't post it all over the damned place. But honestly, I know what you mean and I know exactly those who you are referring to that do precisely that. And it's driven off some of the better posters on here, unfortunately. It pisses me off as well (I really should use the ignore feature, yeah, I know!). It's beyond annoying to read page after page and post after post of verbal diarrhea complaining about stuff. One or two saying "well, this doesn't look good" is fine, but it turns into a bitch-fest among a handful of posters.

Definitely a level of cray-cray here (as you've discovered!). It's just what we do, hahaha! But despite some posters who can be aggravating or all the tearing of hair, gnashing of teeth with every snow fail, this is a fun place to be honest! There are some good and highly knowledgeable folks here, and some cool people (including @mappy!!)...I think there are many who have a good sense of humor even in the face of failures. (ETA: Sometimes, I seriously have to ask myself why the f**k I care about frozen water falling from the sky and get disappointed when it doesn't happen, LOL!!! )

Sadly, it's not much less dead around here given recent trends for any snow in these parts!!! But welcome!

"I give you the NAM, weenies of the mid-Atlantic Shire. May it give you snow when all other guidance abandons you!"

Gotta laugh at something. I'd rather have it getting FOLKS-y instead!!

Haha, I figured it had to be something like that, but still...in my mind I was thinking, well, you know! Hell, gotta find humor in anything at this point!

Gotta admit I chuckled a bit at "FuXi" model!!!

Great film version of that story! ("They seek him here, they seek him there, those Frenchies seek him everywhere! Is he in Heaven? Or is he in Hell? That damn'ed elusive Pimpernel!" )

Hahaha! Sorry about that! But now you know a good movie to catch sometime!

If you're referring to my screen name, it's from the novel and movie "The Scarlet Pimpernel"...and the image is of the actor Leslie Howard who played that role in the 1934 movie (an absolute classic!!! He was also Ashley Wilkes in "Gone with the Wind").

Agree. It's childish and juvenile, to be honest. I mean, sometimes I see some good input on his part but when things go awry even slightly, it's comment after comment of complaints...like "whaaaa! Mommy, it's not going to snow!!." I get that it's probably his "schtick" or whatever, but it's old. I should just learn to use the ignore button, I know! But like I said, the occasional good input keeps me from pulling that trigger and I generally just don't respond to his posts that are like that anyhow, LOL!!!

????

Thing I like about this is how the cold air (in the GFS) is still pretty well locked despite the low tucking in a bit more. Just looking at the 2-m temps, for instance, it's in the mid-20s to near 30ish throughout Tuesday before they crash that evening. Mid-levels do get dicey-er during Tuesday for a time, but no point parsing such details at this point.

Question, for those who have delved deeper into this than I have. There's been discussion that the models won't have the best handle on this system until the GL cutter moves out (approx. Saturday). How have the Euro and GFS handled the location, strength, etc. of that cutter relative to each other? Obviously that's not the only piece here but it is a big player in the overall setup.

18Z GFS looks almost like a cross between the Euro and CMC (Euro almost nothing or too far out, CMC too close and warm)...I'm speaking in terms of the outcome, sort of.

Hilarious movie, with one of the best movie-rants ever by Steve Martin! I'm guessing "FOLKS..." is the new "Jaws music"!!

Why do I sense a Piss Boy insult is about to be tossed around in the medium range thread, with all the models useful/not useful argument going on!!!

Dogs and cats, living together, mass hysteria!

It looks like it's already adjusting, or trying to so to speak.

Yup...despite it sliding away, I actually like the larger scale changes in some weird fashion and that it's trending toward the Euro-type solution. And even still, we manage to squeeze some light snow out of it. I am feeling more confident in the probability for at least more than a dusting from this, and it will also be quite cold. So definitely a wintry feel.

...So few rooms!

Hey no problem, like I said it's good of you to issue the apology. I have mixed feelings about JB, I think he was well respected some time ago and that was deserved, but he devolves into anti-global warming BS and hyping every single damned thing, so that kills his credibility (to me, at least). Or he'll try to claim he was right by changing the statistical goalposts, so to speak (like with stuff such as "March was the coldest month of the winter RELATIVE TO AVERAGES and I called it!!" Sure, "relative to averages"...I can also say that July could be colder than January using that!). Anyhow, I do agree with you on the frustration, it's very palpable, and I feel that way myself. All I can do is just keep hoping that we'll land a couple of solid events, and perhaps a big dog (though I'm not "big dog hunting" unless one actually shows up!). Sometimes though, the doom-and-gloom posting can get annoying in there, as I'm sure you'll agree! One measure, so to speak, of how bad it's been...I like to take photos of every snow event we get, at least the decent to epic ones (advisory level to HECS). The last set of snow-related photos I took was from March 2022, when we got a neat little advisory event around mid-month along with a nice cold blast. Last year had NOTHING...and I think that's the only winter in which I literally took zero snow photos (because there was none? LOL!!!...well, I got 0.5" on Feb. 1 last winter, that fell in the pre-dawn hours and was gone by 10AM).