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Scarlet Pimpernel

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Everything posted by Scarlet Pimpernel

  1. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Very loose interpretation of the word! Perhaps that can be edited to have him saying "...prepared to go down like true weenies!"
  2. Scarlet Pimpernel
    We need our version of General Patton to whip these soldiers into shape! Or General McAuliffe, saying "NUTS!" to the Germans asking him to surrender at Bastogne.
  3. Scarlet Pimpernel
  4. Scarlet Pimpernel
    All we need now is Storm 1 and Storm 2!!
  5. Scarlet Pimpernel
    The snow did not fall. The models had nothing good to say. So we sat in the house All that cold, cold, wet Presidents' Day. I sat there with a @psuhoffman tome, We sat there, us two. And I said, "how I wish There was something we could do!" Too warm at 850. And surface temps did not fall. So we sat in the house. We did nothing at all. So all we could do was take the blinds, and Shit! Shit! Shit! Shit! And we did not like it. Not one little bit. And then a shovel went BUMP! How that bump made us jump! We looked! Then we saw him step in on the mat! We looked! And we saw him! The @Jebman in the hat! And he said to us, "Why do you shit the blinds like that?" I know it is wet And it's half through Feb-rary. But fear not, we'll get our snow So don't commit hari-kari!"
  6. Scarlet Pimpernel
    You'll have to await the Digital Blue society's final approval. Until there's a lot of consistent digital blue, no go!
  7. Scarlet Pimpernel
  8. Scarlet Pimpernel
    I'd let others more knowledgeable chime in, but that was just my back-of-the-envelope thought and assessment. And yeah, it's looking at the ops GFS at 240 hours. I wouldn't put a huge amount of stock in that...being an ops run at that time range, plus, well, the GFS. But taken in isolation, I don't care for that flow as it's shown.
  9. Scarlet Pimpernel
    OK, I'm not @psuhoffman and don't play him on TV...and yeah my previous comment was meant as snarky humor. But in all seriousness, just giving a cursory glance at the 500-mb flow around that time, it seems to me that the GFS just lifts everything more. The PV seems to get shunted north or elongated a bit, with little confluent flow; rather than forming a 50/50 type low it sits way up there in northeast Canada. We end up with flow coming right off the Pacific. At least according to the GFS ops. Here's one snapshot:
  10. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Change the physical properties of water so that it freezes at like 45 degrees???
  11. Scarlet Pimpernel
  12. Scarlet Pimpernel
    That's the one around the 23-24th?
  13. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Suppressed pants-tent, as it were!
  14. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Also, notice it's the extended ensemble CONTROL member, not a mean. So it's even subtly deceptive in that regard.
  15. Scarlet Pimpernel
    I prefer the FAKE punt by FSU (vs. Auburn in the 2014 BCS game), when they came back from a 21-3 deficit and went on to win...
  16. Scarlet Pimpernel
    That wave around the 24th has been one that many here have honed in on as the "better" opportunity, I believe? Though don't rule out something just before that either (PD or just after).
  17. Scarlet Pimpernel
    And the day after Presidents' Day, he rested!?!? Yeah, I swear, if the storm cannot happen on that day so we can officially declare it PD3, then screw it, we shouldn't get a storm at all and let's not get any other snow the rest of this winter!!! (This is extreme sarcasm, by the way!!)
  18. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Do you say FOLKS in the future?
  19. Scarlet Pimpernel
    I don't know about that but I do know for sure there are adults on this board who act like they're 15 years old (or younger!)!!
  20. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Shroomchaser???
  21. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Yup, it's almost hypnotic!!!
  22. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Touche!
  23. Scarlet Pimpernel
    I'm sorry, I've read your comments on this issue for some time and just have to go into a bit of a rant here, because I deal with numerical models myself to some extent... This has to be one of the most ignorant takes on "models" I've ever seen. I get that you're not overly fond of numerical weather models, ensembles, etc., as I've seen you say on more than one occasion essentially that "all they do is show you every possible outcome to cover all bases..,." or whatever (and I strongly disagree with that sentiment). Or at the least you sure leave that impression. Whatever, and to each their own, but I think this all shows a serious lack of understanding on how modeling systems work and how they should be used/interpreted, and is an insulting slap in the face to the scientists who develop this guidance. Doesn't matter if some posters in a weather forum like here live and die by every single ops model solution at 200+ hours, which I agree can get annoying. But that is not a statement on numerical weather prediction itself. One cannot be serious that weather forecasting has rapidly fallen behind other sciences due to, as you call them, "archaic models." You cannot seriously believe that our understanding of weather systems now is worse than it was in the early or pre-modeling days. Perhaps you're right in the end, that you should just show up in the obs threads when a storm actually does occur. But don't criticize based upon weenieish comments that you read in here and mistake that for what numerical modelers and forecasters believe.
  24. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Maybe shit the blinds on this one, but open them up wide for the next one(s) hopefully!!!
  25. Scarlet Pimpernel
    I did look some at the ops GFS progression around the possible PD event and beyond, and yeah, looks like it tries to just break down the flow soon after. Not totally sure why. I don't know how much of that would necessarily "have" to occur if the PD storm happens (if that makes sense), or if the ops GFS has just tended to flip the flow into a "meh" pattern in its extended forecast projections. Obviously, there's some connection which you mention, i.e., this leads to that which results in the GFS showing whatever pattern later on. I've noticed a few times that the ops GFS turns the 500-mb flow rather bland in the longer range, but that could be due to just being an ops at long range.
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