Scarlet Pimpernel

I understand that both Washington and Jefferson were ultra snow weenies! Why else would Washington cross the Delaware River in the freezing cold on a holiday?! Also, the British observer at what is now the DCA location gave a very low snow total for that storm, sparking protests bigger than the Boston Tea Party, and played a role in the eventual American Revolution! I heard that snow weenies were out on barges tossing large snowballs into the Potomac. Rumor has it that the aforementioned British observer was an ancestor of what we now call the Reaper! True history, folks!!!

Likewise!!

Yeah the one I went to in July 2016 was a lot of fun, up in the Rockville area.

I recall a clipper type system early in January. Yeah it wasn't overly warm but I believe a bit above normal overall for that last part of December and then again after the early Jan. clipper. Then it turned cold late January and we got that "surprise" moderate snow event on the 30th.

I believe in that last panel, he sees the back edge...

All this talk of famine and snow...have people been dreaming about 7 fat cows and 7 thin cows all of a sudden? Going all Biblical here!!!

Thanks...I see better now what you're saying. As for the "we're due index!!", unfortunately, as you know, the weather don't give a s**t if we think we're due! But yeah, I get what you mean about how we wouldn't want this year to end up where we say it's now the worst 8 year period ever, and then possibly be staring down the barrels of yet MORE worst years! It actually took me a good while living in this area to realize that the "average" snowfall is meaningless...it's a conglomeration of many "meh" to crap years and the occasional blockbuster. Or, you'd get it all in one or two storms and nothing else. We definitely don't want this:

But wetness in the form of ice crystals is a lot more fun!!! (Oh, dear, did I just send up the bat signal to RR with that wording???)

But would we really break out of the "snow drought" if we even get, say, 10-15" or so above normal at the main airport locations? It would be great for this year of course. But we all know that we'd need...how many years of +10" departures?...to "level things out." Not one season. And "last shot for awhile"...maybe so. Isn't that what we usually do around here? I know there are many factors involved, not the least of which is (I'll say it!!) climate change, which alters the overall landscape.

Sometimes, I admit it's honestly gotten difficult to interpret some of the commentary in here and the mood at times. It's all what expectations are: is someone looking for an above average snow winter (not necessarily epic, but well above)...are they just looking to at least end up with better than the last few years with some decent events to track...or do they consider anything that's more than last winter is a win (the ultimate low bar)? I get that the ENSO state, etc., this year should lead (normally!) to an easily well above normal year for snow with plenty of opportunities. And if that doesn't happen, maybe on that level it would be a failure. But on the other hand, what if we end up with, say, something like 2014-15, or 2006-07...or even the "one hit wonder" 2015-16? Would we all be so upset? I don't know.

OK, thanks...after I re-read your comment I realized you must be talking about next year and beyond. Sorry for the confusion on my part.

Do you mean it literally shows ENSO trending to a Nina as winter progresses, or that it's becoming "Nina-like" in its behavior? Or, are you talking about next year, etc.?

Road trip to Spain, anyone????

Serious (mostly) question here, since I don't look at the Euro weeklies really at all other than what I read in here. How accurate or useful are they? I'm not trying to be a homer here by suggesting "they look bad so they must not be accurate!" I'm being honest in what I ask. In the past, how many times have the weeklies shown drool-worthy patterns for several weeks, and it ends up crap anyhow as we got close in to that time? I know this has happened in previous years (maybe even last year at one point?). Of course the flip-side is assuming that they're spot on when they indicate a lousy pattern but dubious if they look good...but that's just me being cynical. In fact, I've noticed this for much of the sort of ultra-long-range models, how many times has it indicated a good trend that just doesn't happen? Is there something that isn't being picked up on in recent years? Again, maybe this is being biased on my part because of course we tend to better remember the times the forecast good patterns don't pan out.

The medium-range thread looks like a disaster and the blinds are getting nervous that they may get soiled for weeks!

The blinds, they have been shat upon!!!

Apparently, we're looking for the wrong kind of "snow" around here!!

Wow, that's like the anti-Panic Room!

Hey @psuhoffman, a bit late replying here, but I wanted to say thank you for clarifying that. And apologies if I interpreted what you said incorrectly. I understand what you mean here with "wall to wall winter" referring to a more persistent pattern that can produce a few (or several?) events, and that a Nino such as this year SHOULD do the same. Hopefully, at least! If the Pac background state isn't going to allow that, then, well...what can you do? And I agree, we're all hoping this Nino will give either longer or more frequent windows of opportunity to score, rather than us ending up with weeks of "shit the blinds" conditions! To your list of "just missed", I would be tempted to add 2006-07. More precisely, late Jan. into early Mar. 2007. I've always had a bit of a "soft spot" for that winter, even though we didn't exactly get a ton of snow. But we had a remarkably cold period through that time (especially Feb.), and as I've said several times, we JUST missed that storm around Valentines Day. The one that gave us 3" sleet and ice rather than a foot or more of snow. As it was, anything that did fall stayed on the ground for awhile (that sleet turned into an ice pack that hung around). We also got a decent clipper early that Feb. and another "mashed potatoes" like event near the end of that month.

Sing it with me!!! It's the most dumliest time, of the year! There'll be much belly-aching, Clothes rended and hair-tearing, When snow-loving weenies are near! It's the most dumliest time, Yes the most dumliest time, Oh the most dumliest time, Of the year!

Head for the Mountains!!! Made me recall these old Busch beer ads!

FYP, since you didn't give a century value on those years! I may be optimistic there even with what I added! (But I hear the ultra extra mega crazy extended EPS/GEFS says 2230-31 will be rockin'! Bring it!!!)

First, let me state that I totally agree with what you're saying here with all your overall ideas. And I truly believe that the Elephant In The Room Which Shall Not Be Named! is a good part of why we see these changes over the last couple or so decades. But I honestly don't think anyone is or should be looking for a "wall to wall snowy winter" around here. Even in the best years. The only truly "wall to wall" winter that I recall in my time here was 2013-14, and perhaps you could also argue 2002-03. 2009-10, for all it's record-breaking storms, was compressed into a week of December and a couple of weeks in late January into the first half of February. I know you're personally not expecting that, but I think there are those who do. I get it. The last several winters sucked, especially last year. Maybe it's truly all one's expectations. I like looking ahead to see what the pattern may look like, etc., but at times it honestly gets tiresome listening to so much gloom and doom ("OMG! December now sucks, can kicked to sometime in January, aaaaahhhhh!"). Again, I get that to an extent and I get frustrated as well...and I'm CERTAINLY NOT saying that you are doing this. I'm just using your comments as a springboard for mine, if I may. Will this winter just end up being crap despite what should have been a "background state" that normally would deliver consistently? Maybe. But as you say, that's a LARGER issue that deserves more discussion even if there are those who don't want to hear it. But just from a snow lover standpoint, if we get a "one and done" kind of thing like 2015-16, I wouldn't complain too much. Or if we're back-loaded like 2014-15 and other winters, where we get much of our winter in late Jan through Mar. Honestly, after last winter I almost don't much care at this point if we get the perfect pattern that delivers weeks and weeks of tracking (which would be difficult anyhow even in the best situation!). If something shows up, great. Give me some decent events and perhaps even a HECS tossed in there and I'm fine. Sorry, but after last winter's 0.5" snow for the season (that was gone before noon!) and consistently warm temperatures, I just figure you can't get much worse. There was literally NOTHING of interest that ever really appeared on the horizon last year. The most exciting thing was the brief Arctic blast around Christmas, and I got 15 minutes of flurries out of it that didn't even measure. As for your rather bullish forecast this season, I totally understand why you went that way. And in all honesty, as you well know especially here in the metro areas, we can get that level of snowfall in 2-3 events with nothing else. Just how it is around here.

Rain just immediately evaporated before hitting the pavement in all that heat!!

Looks like the PSU inch got larger!