Scarlet Pimpernel
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Everything posted by Scarlet Pimpernel
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Yeah, absolutely no surprise that everyone will be (should be) shut down tomorrow for sure, given the confidence of widespread warning-level snows. No point waiting until 4AM tomorrow morning to make that call. And Tuesday certainly is a good bet in a lot of places too.
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Maybe a little more recent than 2010...don't forget the Jan. 2016 blizzard!
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You should fare better than Short Pump!!
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From what I see, this one you show with the larger ranges (6-12", etc.) goes through the period ending at 7AM Wednesday. That would explain the wider range and somewhat higher max amounts in some places, I think. That plot posted by @300 square feet ends at 7AM Tuesday (a day earlier)...smaller range, slightly lower max in some places at that point.
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Wow...that's quite a bump upward in amounts from what I saw earlier! (ETA: I wonder in part if they're removing the sleet from earlier forecasts as well).
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High and mid-level clouds rolling in with some hazy sunshine peeking through. Not sure of the exact temperature where I'm at, but I'd have to guess low 30s. I went out for a bit of a walk not long ago and it was quite cold, especially with that occasionally brisk wind. I guess that would constitute a "pre-Jebwalk" walk, warming up for hopefully many such Jebwalks this upcoming week!
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Haha, making fun of Joe Bastardi! This actually brings back memories of how I ended up on this board! Back around 2008ish I read the AccuWx boards upon occasion, then found Eastern Wx shortly after and joined that sometime during the big winter of 2009-10. Stuck with it ever since...I think it was in 2011 or there about that Eastern turned into the current AmWx?
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Hey, Beethoven also plays a mean electric keyboard! I once saw him rippin' it up at a mall when Socrates showed up, and...oh wait, that was a movie!!
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I'm mostly glad to see the more expansive precip shield, to be honest.
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Yeah that's kind of what I remember from that event in 2019. Sorry to bring up "bad" memories on that...I guess it's like the Voldemort storm from B**ing D*y 2010 (the Storm Which Shall Not Be Named!). But this event for Monday, looks a lot better for areas up to the north as well, compared to that 2019 storm.
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Let's just hope we don't suffer his fate. Rather...hope more like this:
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That was an over-performer for sure in the metro DC area...though I don't think it was as good for areas up toward BWI and north, whereas this one looks better relatively speaking. I also recall LWX went 8-12" in the metro DC area which at first seemed really aggressive but ended up spot-on.
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Whoa! I need to go out and eat some very large shrimp now! (yeah, continuing the lame pron/prawn joke from earlier, sorry, hope you don't mind!!! My sense of humor can be off sometimes hahaha!). But seriously...dayum, I really hope we can end up with that! Haven't felt this giddy about a snow event in some time!
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OK, great...thanks! Wow...that's unreal!
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Is that the 3km or 12km NAM? (or are they both similar...too lazy to go look myself if someone already has these!)
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Hahaha!! I know, right?! You see one model that looks...amazingly unreal...and you don't want to let go of it!!! Though the scientific side of me is cautious when I see that, my weenie side sometimes gets in the way! Like Jekyll-Hyde!
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LOL I remember seeing that some years ago, can't remember which forum/region!
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That's what I was hoping for...get rid of that ugly, huge dry slot area that had been showing up.
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I thought I heard some time back (not sure if it's accurate) that the HRRR is really best for summertime convection more than this type of scenario (synoptically-driven winter events, etc.). But yeah, still nice to look at all the same!
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LOL I was kind of thinking the same thing! Some serious "prawns", for sure (see what I did there?)!! But of course, the HRRR way out at range. I just hope it's right for everyone!
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Wow. I know, the HRRR waaaay out at its range but that is insane (i.e., amazing). How much of that is the coastal enhancement? Unless that's occurring at the time this ends.
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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?
Scarlet Pimpernel replied to mappy's topic in Mid Atlantic
Right. It's about all we can expect right now at this range. The threat in general has shown up for a little while, and I recall you mentioning (some pages back) that the "players were on the field but a lot going on" (or words to that effect). Maybe it's trying to hone in on a more discrete threat now. -
I sure hope that NAM precip hole is waaay overdone. I don't think other models show that much dryness.
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(Moving my reply here to Banter, to avoid Storm Mode Wrath!)... At first when I read your comment, I thought you said "Snow map PROM time"!!! Then realized the (purposeful?) reversal of the letters in "pron"!!! LOL! Though I suppose "prom" can work too, we'd definitely all dance with that (with a little snow "pron" afterward hahaha!)!
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Thanks...yeah that's a different progression for sure, more similar to what the main globals have shown (and I totally get the file size limitations!).
