Scarlet Pimpernel

Wait...did Groucho Marx lose one of his eyebrows??

Yeah, I guess that would be true for up in that area. Closer in to the DC area, it's kind of just getting a little bit of color...so couple of weeks in this area is probably what I was thinking of. It's been pretty dry too, of late (though should get some good rain tonight), hopefully that won't inhibit things too much to where the leaves just shrivel and fall off, LOL! The maples have started, I guess they tend to be the first ones to show.

Some late summer weeds...

That's awesome, @nw baltimore wx! I bet in a couple of weeks that area will look amazing as the color really comes out!! You can definitely see the hints of it starting.

I'll take a bit of issue stating categorically that 2015-16 was a "crappy winter." But that's all a matter of perspective and opinion of course, and others have expressed the same view, so it is what it is. I won't deny that Dec. 2015 was absolutely awful, the worst in the annals of craptacularity, with a +11 temperature departure for the month. More April than December. However, if you look at the temperatures for Jan. 2016, it was slightly colder than normal, and Feb. 2016 was near to a hair above normal. Though to be sure, the 2nd half of Feb. warmed up again. For snow...outside that one amazing event...you could argue it sucked, sure. But fact is we did get that one spectacular event. And in Feb., there was a small to moderate snow/ice event (that changed to rain very late) around President's Day weekend. Did we have other chances in that 2 month period? I don't remember. But to me, truly crappy would be last winter, where it was nearly wall-to-wall shutout with no chance. And a toaster bath most of the time. Or 2001-02, and 2011-12. Those are the worst kinds in terms of awful winters in my opinion...consistently lousy temperatures and almost no real snow opportunities. I'd argue that as bad as a lot of 2015-16 seemed (mostly thanks to that December), we still had a couple of realistic periods for something.

11 pages for a Winter 2020-21 thread, and we're barely into September...oy gevalt!! Either desperation or hope, I'm not sure which. I didn't read the whole thing, but has Ji canceled this upcoming winter yet? And how many times? Do we have Panic Room previews?? @WxWatcher007 promised so many new amenities this upcoming season for the wayward weenies!!

Something like Feb. 14, 2015 would be kinda cool!! That wasn't really 2-4" area-wide, but I got like 2" in an hour or so followed by gusty winds and temperatures plummeted into the teens for the next day or so, as an Arctic front went through. One of the coolest "mini events" I can remember.

You do understand what the SPREAD of ensemble forecasts shows, correct?

For a forecast issued on JANUARY F-ING FIRST...yeah, not too awful. Do you expect it to be perfect 15 days in advance? Then you should find a new field to study. And the MEAN curve, if you follow that, was not even in the COD on the 15th, though it was approaching it. Oh, and I count what looks like 2 members that actually go into the COD, and a couple that go to P6. Most of the rest kind of bounce and circle around P5, with some decreasing amplitude.

I know we're all more than a bit on edge because the indications turned very sour over the past few days for the medium range. But I have to say, this is kind of unfair to @psuhoffman. He did not "all but cancel winter" when some bad signs showed up. He stated very clearly that IF such-and-such occurred, we're about cooked (literally?). And what he said was absolutely true...if various things occur with the pattern, you can throw our snow chances out the window. Now we're seeing...very unfortunately...indications that this might occur in the medium range now, after a period of seeing much more favorable signs. It sucks, but that's what's being shown. It may not be right, it may change to looking good again. Or we could look good after that period. Who knows. I'm just keeping hope for one good period this winter, whether it's February or first part of March, to give us *something* more than a couple of slushy inches followed by rain. I've seen some God-awful winters in the time I've lived here, and some really good ones. I'd like to think we can avoid "God awful" without too much difficulty. That doesn't mean a HECS, but at least one decent storm. (And by God-awful, I mean an entire winter season with barely an advisory-level event a time or two, and low single-digit snow for the year).

Not to be overtly rude, and attempting to be somewhat diplomatic here...but are you being deliberately obtuse??

You know, I was just about to reply to him stating exactly this. I looked at that Jan. 1-15 MJO forecast from the EPS and thought the verification looked pretty damned good as well! Thanks for stating the same thing. And while the mean from that older forecast kind of diminished toward the COD, the envelope clearly had quite a range and some members pushed into P6 (which is what occurred). So yeah, not bad for a 15 day forecast. Sadly, it meant things sucked for us, but it is what it is.

You know, I actually can see and agree with what both you and @psuhoffman have been saying, though there is some disagreement between you in what you've both said. PSU is absolutely right on the points that the pattern has not been the same since about mid-December, though the result for us doesn't seem much different (or improved!). And I certainly can agree that we're getting into at least a somewhat more favorable look for the latter part of this month, definitely better than a total shutout. But it's the details (ah, the devil is in there!) that can kill us...a shortwave here, a trough too far east there...and we get crap when not long before things looked better. Likewise, what he said about our "base state" or climatology here is pretty well spot-on...we are not in a location that has high likelihood of snow year in and year out, in fact, it's not all that great of a probability on average. It's really hit or miss here, you get hammered or get almost nothing. It took me a few years living here to fully get that the "average snow" doesn't mean much because the variability is huge! Coming from northeast Ohio, the variability is far less, so even a "meh" year typically isn't all that awful. I also can definitely see and empathize with what you're saying. From our perspective, it doesn't look like anything has really improved (I am now remembering that "Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade" scene, where Indy and his dad are in the fireplace, which rotates around, and his dad says "Our situation has not improved!"). The pattern is definitely quite different, but we're not seeing anything "good" (i.e., good snow chances) show up for us. Not sure I'm fully on board with the storm persistence "memory" kind of thing, because if the pattern is not the same, then things aren't persistent by definition, I suppose. But again, it sure seems that way whether true or not. I don't know what it would take to do a "reshuffle" so that we're in a better spot here, or if such a thing would happen. So much seems almost right, but just enough "off" to "F" things up.

I don't know man...the way this season has gone, you never know!! But joking aside, I guess (???) it's nice that the Euro weeklies looked good (according to what @psuhoffman said earlier), and that the CFS keeps indicating a cold February. We'll see.

Well, @Bob Chill did say he's passing the torch. I just didn't think he meant the ops Euro!! (Just kidding, Bob, you know I'm just having a bit of fun!!).

That's odd...I checked the calendar and it says "January 16" today, barely half-way through the month. (And the Grammar Nazi in me should correct your "its almost February" to "it's almost February".)

"Passing the torch" might be a dubious turn of phrase at this point, with us looking for snow!!

Couple of things I can think of, just looking at that surface plot. The coastal low is too far inland (and the high to the north looks pushed too far away to the north). Also, note the extension of low pressure into the WV panhandle/southeast OH/southwest PA. That would imply a primary that's too far north, thus enabling more warm air to get in before the coastal can take over. Again, that's just based on looking at the surface, having not seen the corresponding Euro 500 hPa. ETA: Ninja'd by @psuhoffman and @jaydreb!

Thanks again, PSU, for being a voice of reason in here...difficult as that can be at times! I'll admit, the looks today have been very disappointing, after several days of very promising potential the latter part of this month and into February. OK, much of that disappointment is probably effects of this weekend's (non?)event. But for the longer range beyond that, it's one run, of one model system really (EPS). The 12Z GEFS I think looked fine still beyond this weekend(?) from what I saw shown earlier. Others have said this (I think you as well), but if the potential for this upcoming weekend never really existed or showed up as possibly being pretty good, I wonder how we'd all feel. Even with that, many were considering anything this weekend (IF anything) would be bonus, and the better time that was being honed in on was around the 24th or there about, and beyond. Of course, the EPS may well be a canary in a coal mine and models from here on out trend toward "meh" or worse, who knows. But for now we just have to sit tight and see.

Not that a deterministic at that range means a lot (obligatory caveat!)...but the 18Z GFS looked more or less like we saw in previous cycles for next weekend (MLK weekend). That is, some kind of mess/ice to rain, then some pretty cold air behind it. There's some decent cold ahead of the system too before the flip. In any event, something to watch. Has the look of areas in western/central MD or western VA potentially getting into quite an icing situation, more so than the DC-Balt corridor.

Meh! But seriously, nice signal there for sure. Definitely an uptick in the amounts, especially what appear to be big solutions (and I know, taking snow maps with a huge grain of salt and all that). I'm glad the GEFS is continuing to show that still today. And yeah, that's all in the latter part of the period of the 384-h.

Interesting for sure! But even taking it as-is, couldn't it imply something possible beyond this time, if that ridging in the east gets booted out or suppressed more with the flow upstream? It's almost something like @psuhoffman mentioned earlier, a neutral to -PNA but strong -EPO ridging going up toward the Pole and some good ridging in the NAO region.

@Bob Chill, I know it's all speculation and model projections out in time, but if that ends up being true, I think we'd all be happy with it! Feb. 2014 was a fun time, and Feb. 2015 had epic cold and some neat events as well (and both years had a solid March, too).

I do believe that is an oxymoron!!

Yeah, I know...but couldn't let that go by. Maybe it was just him being snarky and my snark meter is broken (but irrational could be the case to!)! Anyhow, you're right...the uptick in activity is the main point. I honestly haven't been following too closely but from my reading here, that GEFS plot you showed is probably about the best it's been in some time. I'd take that right now and hope it's a real signal and not a "blip" that will revert to crap again!