Scarlet Pimpernel

Hello Mrs. J!! I hope you are well! That's cool...snowing!!! I've heard there are some good snow showers going on in my home town up in northeast Ohio.

Looks like some kind of frat keg party at the Panic Room! And yeah, no masks??? WTF??? I'm sure you will be very strict, making sure everyone's temperature is no more than room temperature of course!

Way to take my snarky post from earlier and turn it into a serious discussion...damn you! Joke's on me!! As for your second question, Christmas snow vs. top 3 January blizzard...oh my! Where do you come up with these? Just...diabolical! Can I phone a friend to get the answer? But, with no knowledge of how the entire winter would be, I'll just assume a good one overall for both scenarios, I'd just barely have to go with the January blizzard idea! And as long as Christmas Eve/Day is not like it was in 2015, hazy and damn near uncomfortably humid! A crisp, cold Holiday is nice (even without any snow), with the prospects looking good heading into the New Year! So here's a question then, if I may: (1) Re-live winter 2002-03 with the PD-II storm of course or (2) Re-live winter 2013-14 Or, how about this: (1) Listen to Ji complain how winter 2009-10 ended after the Feb. 9-10 blizzard, thus it wasn't as good as it could have been or (2) In a sucky winter, having Ji cancel winter several times (all in fun, sorry @Ji!!) Is the Reaper stumped? Nahhhhh, not possible!

Seems the Reaper is wheeling-and-dealing for those lost souls!!

Hmmm, tough one! Make the second option have a couple of moderate warning-level events (not necessarily double-digit), and I'd go for that one without question! Would be similar to 2013-14 in that regard. But even without that, I guess it would imply snow cover that sticks around for awhile (and persistent cold) and you just add to it. I can live with several 1-3", 2-4", 3-5" type snows if that were the case!

So hey...this is a great forum to argue hotly debated political issues and controversial subjects, correct? And maybe discuss weather? Asking for a friend... (That was serious snark, by the way, as if I need to say that!)

Yup! Just like the Titanic and a "Night to Remember", this will absolutely be a "Winter to Remember!!" (I have a "sinking" feeling, hahaha!)

Classy high-powered lawyers...love it! I wonder if they'd do pro bone-o work for those who need counsel but don't have an unlimited bank account. (Oh, I'm sorry, I put "classy" and "lawyer" in the same sentence, my bad! No offense to any lawyers out there! )

Oh, we knew you must have been working on something good! Just a little concerned is all, having heard nothing from the Reaper in so long! Brilliant fortifications, to keep the extreme weenies out who might otherwise ruin the establishment! I guess you have guards at the gate taking people's temperatures to make sure they'e OK to come in! Is that from "Jason and the Argonauts" (or maybe I'm thinking of "Clash of the Titans)?? Great movie! Love it! No x-rays required!!! Whoa! The amenities of this place are just over the top! Couples therapy for the distraught snow weenie looking at models every night while their significant other falls into depression due to lack of attention! Looks like this guy fantasizes over 384-h GFS snowstorms more than the woman he's with!! I think Dr. Bones will set him right!

[email protected] is this year's Panic Room? Reaper taking an extended vacation? There were so many promises of upgrades! I was particularly looking forward to the snakes you advertised, as long as they've been better trained, and don't spill the drinks when they knock on your door! Is it social distancing issues, and limited space as a result? Can't keep people 6 feet under...errrr...6 feet apart?? No bone sanitizer available? Reaper working with a...skeletal crew this year?? (pun very much intended!!) I'm sure this will be a record-breaking year for you going by some of the discussion. Consider it the inverse of winter 2009-10! @Ji might ask for his money back if he isn't allowed in...hasn't he reserved a penthouse suite years in advance, using his "I cancelled winter first this season!" coupon?? He must get as many of those as I do of the Bed, Bath, and Beyond 20% off coupons!! But in all seriousness (if I can be)...hope you are doing well these days!

So for the "Washington Football Team", is this what can be said of them every week when they screw up?... WTF, WFT?!?! JFC!!

Ohhhh, tasty!! And I like the "Wine! How classy people get wasted!" coaster/hot-pad thing there in the background! Reminds me of this, which always makes me laugh...

In a way, I agree with you here (no, not the part where you say that this makes you an ass...well, maybe sorta!). I personally see little difference between 6" slop spread over several events, that disappear before you sneeze...and dealing with 55-60 degrees most of the winter. Honestly (and this is simply conjecture on my part), I don't see us having quite so consistent a level of warmth as we did last year, and our single best event being...all of 1.5" total. Whether that means anything, who knows. But yeah, if we're going to have a couple of slop storms, who cares, might as well have it be "late fall" most of the time instead! I just hope we don't have mosquitos still hanging around in January, please! Interestingly, I looked up DJF last year (2019-20) and DJF from 2015-16 (year we got the blizzard). At least for DCA, last year was warmer over those 3 winter months compared to '15-16, and more consistently so. And that is after a +11.5 departure in Dec. 2015!! Take out Dec. 2015 and you see a different picture that year. I know people like to "dis" that winter as a one-and-done luck out with the blizzard that sucked otherwise, but fact is...we DID luck out. And it wasn't all luck. We were graced with a favorable pattern and a STJ on 'roids through the middle-end part of January. And in fact, besides the awful warmth in December, Jan-Feb were kinda at or slightly below normal overall (2nd half of Feb did get warmer, to be sure, as I recall). Last year didn't even give us any chance for a luck event, really. Oh, and last year, DCA did not record a single max temperature of 32 or below at all.

C'mon, if you're gonna punt, go for the best (Ray Guy)!!

Hey @WxWatcher007, is the Panic Room open yet for this season? Looks like you'll have an overflow crowd right from the start! Perhaps introduce "contactless" check-in!! And sanitize each room with tears from agonized snow weenies!

Yeah, I guess that would be true for up in that area. Closer in to the DC area, it's kind of just getting a little bit of color...so couple of weeks in this area is probably what I was thinking of. It's been pretty dry too, of late (though should get some good rain tonight), hopefully that won't inhibit things too much to where the leaves just shrivel and fall off, LOL! The maples have started, I guess they tend to be the first ones to show.

Some late summer weeds...

That's awesome, @nw baltimore wx! I bet in a couple of weeks that area will look amazing as the color really comes out!! You can definitely see the hints of it starting.

I'll take a bit of issue stating categorically that 2015-16 was a "crappy winter." But that's all a matter of perspective and opinion of course, and others have expressed the same view, so it is what it is. I won't deny that Dec. 2015 was absolutely awful, the worst in the annals of craptacularity, with a +11 temperature departure for the month. More April than December. However, if you look at the temperatures for Jan. 2016, it was slightly colder than normal, and Feb. 2016 was near to a hair above normal. Though to be sure, the 2nd half of Feb. warmed up again. For snow...outside that one amazing event...you could argue it sucked, sure. But fact is we did get that one spectacular event. And in Feb., there was a small to moderate snow/ice event (that changed to rain very late) around President's Day weekend. Did we have other chances in that 2 month period? I don't remember. But to me, truly crappy would be last winter, where it was nearly wall-to-wall shutout with no chance. And a toaster bath most of the time. Or 2001-02, and 2011-12. Those are the worst kinds in terms of awful winters in my opinion...consistently lousy temperatures and almost no real snow opportunities. I'd argue that as bad as a lot of 2015-16 seemed (mostly thanks to that December), we still had a couple of realistic periods for something.

11 pages for a Winter 2020-21 thread, and we're barely into September...oy gevalt!! Either desperation or hope, I'm not sure which. I didn't read the whole thing, but has Ji canceled this upcoming winter yet? And how many times? Do we have Panic Room previews?? @WxWatcher007 promised so many new amenities this upcoming season for the wayward weenies!!

Something like Feb. 14, 2015 would be kinda cool!! That wasn't really 2-4" area-wide, but I got like 2" in an hour or so followed by gusty winds and temperatures plummeted into the teens for the next day or so, as an Arctic front went through. One of the coolest "mini events" I can remember.

You do understand what the SPREAD of ensemble forecasts shows, correct?

For a forecast issued on JANUARY F-ING FIRST...yeah, not too awful. Do you expect it to be perfect 15 days in advance? Then you should find a new field to study. And the MEAN curve, if you follow that, was not even in the COD on the 15th, though it was approaching it. Oh, and I count what looks like 2 members that actually go into the COD, and a couple that go to P6. Most of the rest kind of bounce and circle around P5, with some decreasing amplitude.

I know we're all more than a bit on edge because the indications turned very sour over the past few days for the medium range. But I have to say, this is kind of unfair to @psuhoffman. He did not "all but cancel winter" when some bad signs showed up. He stated very clearly that IF such-and-such occurred, we're about cooked (literally?). And what he said was absolutely true...if various things occur with the pattern, you can throw our snow chances out the window. Now we're seeing...very unfortunately...indications that this might occur in the medium range now, after a period of seeing much more favorable signs. It sucks, but that's what's being shown. It may not be right, it may change to looking good again. Or we could look good after that period. Who knows. I'm just keeping hope for one good period this winter, whether it's February or first part of March, to give us *something* more than a couple of slushy inches followed by rain. I've seen some God-awful winters in the time I've lived here, and some really good ones. I'd like to think we can avoid "God awful" without too much difficulty. That doesn't mean a HECS, but at least one decent storm. (And by God-awful, I mean an entire winter season with barely an advisory-level event a time or two, and low single-digit snow for the year).

Not to be overtly rude, and attempting to be somewhat diplomatic here...but are you being deliberately obtuse??