Scarlet Pimpernel

@psuhoffman, many thanks for compiling this! Very informative and useful...appreciate your efforts and time!

Very true...unfortunately!! The ensembles have been very impressive and were pretty well spot on with the current pattern and look, as bad as it is for anyone wanting snow. People need to better understand the difference between single deterministic runs out beyond a week (or even less) and ensembles through the same time period and beyond. In general, ensembles will be much more reliable and accurate on the overall pattern/flow drivers without wild swings each model run. Not that ensembles don't have their "issues" and cannot be wrong, but you get the idea. (ETA: And yeah, the EPS has been killing it...and killing us, LOL!!)

LOL!! In all seriousness, I haven't been able to see the Euro or CMC maps leading up to what they're showing. But I'll make a slight assumption that despite timing differences and interpretation of how it evolves, they're both pretty well showing what is perhaps the "same" system out in that time range, correct (and not totally different waves, etc.)? Not that it matters at that range so much, but it is nice to see *something* on more than one model out there, and I guess the GFS did too, sort of. As you said, it's an event to consider at this point, which is more than we've had so far.

Thanks for this, PSU! A very good comment and well-reasoned post about what to look out for and what historically occurs if the Pacific remains stubbornly ugly still in about 2 weeks or so. I'm optimistic too, that at least we won't have a total dumpster fire in the end. For now anyway! You make an interesting point too about whether climate change renders a lot of analogues somewhat moot. Along that line I think some time back you suggested that some of the older analogues that pop up might not be as useful now as they once were. I think that would be an interesting area to investigate, and wonder when various analogue years or time periods sort of "time out" now.

Yeah, the D10 looks not half bad, all things considered. But that D15 that @psuhoffman showed is an absolute shite look...or, as he put it "exactly the opposite of what we want". Strangely, I can see how this relatively decent D10 can morph into what PSU showed for 5 days later, if that ridging extending into the Aleutians doesn't move east very much or at all. The trough in the east would just get pushed out eventually, I guess, as that Aleutian ridge forces a deeper west coast trough. And we don't even need to say how lousy the NAO region is. (ETA: Nothing personal meant by my comments, @psuhoffman, that was all directed at how things looked of course and not at you! You're just the messenger. Though I assume you knew what I was saying!)

Agreed...and a very interesting look. Bob (and anyone else), looking at the 216h and 240h plots above...I can see how that ridging in the intermountain west and up in to Canada results in what could be a more favorable split-flow potential. However, looking outside that, would we also perhaps ideally want that E-W oriented ridge that's "pointing" toward the Gulf of AK to eventually be a bit farther east and orient more N-S in time? Curious what that might do, hypothetically. Could it be a hint of re-generating a more favorable -EPO?

I found a photo of the Reaper here in the Redemption Room recently...though it was rain, not snow! (ETA: I use this as a joke, but an awesome movie!! One of my all-time favorites, and too bad Morgan Freeman didn't get an Oscar for his performance in "Shawshank Redemption"!! In fact, too bad that movie didn't earn any despite several nominations.)

A'la "Kung Fu Panda"..."Yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mystery, but today is a gift. That's why it's called the present!" Sorry to go all zen there on your humor, haha!

Somehow, this reminds me of that old Saturday Night Live skit "Chicago Super Fans", where these 3 guys (I think George Wendt of "Cheers" was on that as a guest?) betting on what the Bears' score will be. One of them predicted something like "Bears 72, Lions -28"...and another asked how you can get a negative score in football...to which the reply was "Hey, Ditka will find a way!!" So with that...hey, DCA will find a way!!

That's right...start 'em off early with doing the chores! Uphill, both ways, with the sun in your eyes! And like it! But seriously...nice photos, and glad your first "real" snow event since being in this area was so fun! (ETA: I heard Jebman offers training courses in proper shoveling technique!)

Final count...11.0" at 9PM. Still some very light snow falling, but it's pretty well over. Great event!

Indeed that would be! Nice!

More like deflate-gate! (sorry, New England fans, the jokes on that never get old...)

Just think...only a few days ago, we were thinking a couple of inches would be a win here at this point, as a prelude to what many are thinking could be an awesome pattern we'll be heading into.

Yup, I think that is what the Euro was showing for this event yesterday. Wasn't it also calling for an additional 0.25-0.30 or there about from 1PM onward (in today's 12Z run...maybe that's what you mean about the band)? (ETA: So maybe...if the Euro kind of led the way on this one for QPF, it may well be correct with that crazy 1"+ of ice next weekend! )

Hit the 10.0" mark a short while ago when I last measured! Still coming down but lighter. Incredible finish to this event, I got nearly 4" since about 3:30PM. Outside the Jan. 2016 blizzard (which is in a totally different class), this is easily the largest snowfall since Feb. 2014 in terms of accumulation at least. And this one, unlike Feb. 2014, didn't involve a period of slop for part of it. Here's a recent photo from this evening (thank goodness for image stabilized lenses! )...

This last surge late this afternoon and evening so far has pushed my total to 9.0". Still snowing too at a good clip.

Nice! Hope this storm makes up for you being sick at least somewhat (those noroviruses are awful!!).

Nice big flakes coming down now at a good clip, for the past half hour or there about. Looks like areas that had been cleared and shoveled are getting covered again. Will have to measure sometime a bit later. Thus far, have 7.0" total for this storm where I'm at (as of about noon).

A few photos (one from last night, two from today)...

Nice photo! I think that buck is saying, "Dafuq you looking at??"

Right around 7.0" as of 11:00AM, Chevy Chase/Bethesda. Some light snow falling.

Hell I still haven't totally recovered from the Indians losing in extra innings of game 7 vs. the Cubs two seasons ago...or for that matter also losing game 7 in extras vs. the Marlins in 1997!

6.8" measured around 8:30am here in Chevy Chase/Bethesda. Light snow falling...beautiful out! Got several photos.

Right around ~2.5" Chevy Chase/Bethesda area. Nice sized flakes ripping for awhile, has let up a bit now. Side roads are long gone, even some major roads (E-W Hwy, Conn Ave) are not exactly easy traveling.