Scarlet Pimpernel

Ha! Well, I watched the original "Alien" movie a couple of weeks back...great film and still a pretty damned scary idea! It's been years since I last saw it. But now, I've got the complete James Bond series on Bluray that I've started watching in the past week (was given that for my birthday the other week). I'm still amazed at how good the "original" ones were, through the 80s (including Sean Connery, Roger Moore, and yes, even the one with George Lazenby). I know, there's argument over who the best Bond is/was! Oh, and anyone remember the old "Dark Shadows" series from the '60s-70s? Someone gave us the complete set on disk (some 1200 episodes!) a few years ago, and have slowly been working through that when the mood strikes. Fun stuff (if campy!)...and it's easy to binge watch several half-hour episodes in an evening!! Still quite a ways from the end of the series though (and this is over the past 2+ years of occasional viewing)!

Well, I hope the original post I put up didn't sound overly alarmist or anything like that. I was just thinking historically what happened from the 1918 flu, where after the original wave it got bad again the next fall. Obviously this virus isn't the same and conditions/medical science, etc. are different as well. At any rate, I have heard what both of you say that thus far this virus apparently hasn't shown a tendency to mutate very much (if at all, really?). So yeah, that gives hope of a "one and done" vaccine, once there is a vaccine. The other thing here is, I've heard differing things on how long one's immunity lasts, which is another factor...though again, I don't think anyone knows anything definitive on that or if it's even been looked into (probably way too early right now to know for sure).

I'm so sorry to hear about that, WxWatcher007. For what it's worth, I send my deep condolences. Take care of yourself and those close to you! And like you say, despite the occasional political argument in this thread, I'm grateful for this community and the people in it...nice to know that other than bonding over weather, we can also discuss this current situation rationally for the most part. And it does help.

Actually, this is kind of what really worries me beyond this initial wave. I've heard indications that this virus could well be a "seasonal" occurrence. And keep in mind, this really showed up here more near the end of the regular flu season. Come next fall, we'll be dealing with this for the full complement of that season.

It's really hard, I suppose, to not wade too much into the political stuff with this issue. Maybe it's the nature of the beast, I don't know. Generally I try to avoid going into that too much in here (hopefully with some success!). I admit to having very strong views on this subject and politically in general, and all I'll say is that I do not have any confidence or trust in the current Administration for much of anything. To me, governors and other local governments are left trying to do their own thing however they can. While I lean quite left (though not "extreme"), I have to give great credit to Gov. Hogan here in MD as a Republican. Now, some of that may be due to the fact that the Statehouse here is heavily Democratic, so he's more moderate. But regardless, he's done a good job here, not just with this but in general I think. Same for some other Republican governors in other states, even if I disagree with them in general on policy, some have handled this crisis pretty darned well as Hogan has for the most part. As for your feeling a little rough, I hear you...it's hard not to automatically kind of worry. But it is getting into peak allergy season, and I've noticed times I have a stuffy/runny nose, even a bit of a cough or slight headache, most likely due to that. Dry air doesn't help (and it's been a bit dry lately, as well as breezy out).

Storm mode?? You stay well, too (goes for everyone, of course)!!

It's been interesting what's available at what stores, that's for sure. TP and even kleenex has been non-existent or in short supply nearly everywhere I've been. I did score some at a dollar store, strangely enough. I had already stocked up some on kleenex awhile back when TP was all but gone, and there was still a ton of tissue boxes available. The meat area has been hit or miss, at least at the Giants I go to. Pasta is likewise the same. And the baking aisle...they've been generally cleaned out for some time (obviously a lot of people decided to bake a bunch of stuff...and why not?), things like flour/sugar/yeast. I'm glad I spent about 2-3 weeks before the "rush" slowly stocking up on some dried/canned items. Something I found slightly amusing is cleaner...mostly gone, but the only things left are scented ones...I saw a whole bunch of lavender scented Comet of all things (apparently not popular)!! You're probably right, time of day might play a role too. But paper products (like TP) have been nowhere to be seen for nearly 3 weeks now, at least at the main stores.

You do understand what the SPREAD of ensemble forecasts shows, correct?

For a forecast issued on JANUARY F-ING FIRST...yeah, not too awful. Do you expect it to be perfect 15 days in advance? Then you should find a new field to study. And the MEAN curve, if you follow that, was not even in the COD on the 15th, though it was approaching it. Oh, and I count what looks like 2 members that actually go into the COD, and a couple that go to P6. Most of the rest kind of bounce and circle around P5, with some decreasing amplitude.

I know we're all more than a bit on edge because the indications turned very sour over the past few days for the medium range. But I have to say, this is kind of unfair to @psuhoffman. He did not "all but cancel winter" when some bad signs showed up. He stated very clearly that IF such-and-such occurred, we're about cooked (literally?). And what he said was absolutely true...if various things occur with the pattern, you can throw our snow chances out the window. Now we're seeing...very unfortunately...indications that this might occur in the medium range now, after a period of seeing much more favorable signs. It sucks, but that's what's being shown. It may not be right, it may change to looking good again. Or we could look good after that period. Who knows. I'm just keeping hope for one good period this winter, whether it's February or first part of March, to give us *something* more than a couple of slushy inches followed by rain. I've seen some God-awful winters in the time I've lived here, and some really good ones. I'd like to think we can avoid "God awful" without too much difficulty. That doesn't mean a HECS, but at least one decent storm. (And by God-awful, I mean an entire winter season with barely an advisory-level event a time or two, and low single-digit snow for the year).

Not to be overtly rude, and attempting to be somewhat diplomatic here...but are you being deliberately obtuse??

You know, I was just about to reply to him stating exactly this. I looked at that Jan. 1-15 MJO forecast from the EPS and thought the verification looked pretty damned good as well! Thanks for stating the same thing. And while the mean from that older forecast kind of diminished toward the COD, the envelope clearly had quite a range and some members pushed into P6 (which is what occurred). So yeah, not bad for a 15 day forecast. Sadly, it meant things sucked for us, but it is what it is.

You know, I actually can see and agree with what both you and @psuhoffman have been saying, though there is some disagreement between you in what you've both said. PSU is absolutely right on the points that the pattern has not been the same since about mid-December, though the result for us doesn't seem much different (or improved!). And I certainly can agree that we're getting into at least a somewhat more favorable look for the latter part of this month, definitely better than a total shutout. But it's the details (ah, the devil is in there!) that can kill us...a shortwave here, a trough too far east there...and we get crap when not long before things looked better. Likewise, what he said about our "base state" or climatology here is pretty well spot-on...we are not in a location that has high likelihood of snow year in and year out, in fact, it's not all that great of a probability on average. It's really hit or miss here, you get hammered or get almost nothing. It took me a few years living here to fully get that the "average snow" doesn't mean much because the variability is huge! Coming from northeast Ohio, the variability is far less, so even a "meh" year typically isn't all that awful. I also can definitely see and empathize with what you're saying. From our perspective, it doesn't look like anything has really improved (I am now remembering that "Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade" scene, where Indy and his dad are in the fireplace, which rotates around, and his dad says "Our situation has not improved!"). The pattern is definitely quite different, but we're not seeing anything "good" (i.e., good snow chances) show up for us. Not sure I'm fully on board with the storm persistence "memory" kind of thing, because if the pattern is not the same, then things aren't persistent by definition, I suppose. But again, it sure seems that way whether true or not. I don't know what it would take to do a "reshuffle" so that we're in a better spot here, or if such a thing would happen. So much seems almost right, but just enough "off" to "F" things up.

I don't know man...the way this season has gone, you never know!! But joking aside, I guess (???) it's nice that the Euro weeklies looked good (according to what @psuhoffman said earlier), and that the CFS keeps indicating a cold February. We'll see.

Well, @Bob Chill did say he's passing the torch. I just didn't think he meant the ops Euro!! (Just kidding, Bob, you know I'm just having a bit of fun!!).

That's odd...I checked the calendar and it says "January 16" today, barely half-way through the month. (And the Grammar Nazi in me should correct your "its almost February" to "it's almost February".)

"Passing the torch" might be a dubious turn of phrase at this point, with us looking for snow!!

Couple of things I can think of, just looking at that surface plot. The coastal low is too far inland (and the high to the north looks pushed too far away to the north). Also, note the extension of low pressure into the WV panhandle/southeast OH/southwest PA. That would imply a primary that's too far north, thus enabling more warm air to get in before the coastal can take over. Again, that's just based on looking at the surface, having not seen the corresponding Euro 500 hPa. ETA: Ninja'd by @psuhoffman and @jaydreb!

Thanks again, PSU, for being a voice of reason in here...difficult as that can be at times! I'll admit, the looks today have been very disappointing, after several days of very promising potential the latter part of this month and into February. OK, much of that disappointment is probably effects of this weekend's (non?)event. But for the longer range beyond that, it's one run, of one model system really (EPS). The 12Z GEFS I think looked fine still beyond this weekend(?) from what I saw shown earlier. Others have said this (I think you as well), but if the potential for this upcoming weekend never really existed or showed up as possibly being pretty good, I wonder how we'd all feel. Even with that, many were considering anything this weekend (IF anything) would be bonus, and the better time that was being honed in on was around the 24th or there about, and beyond. Of course, the EPS may well be a canary in a coal mine and models from here on out trend toward "meh" or worse, who knows. But for now we just have to sit tight and see.

Not that a deterministic at that range means a lot (obligatory caveat!)...but the 18Z GFS looked more or less like we saw in previous cycles for next weekend (MLK weekend). That is, some kind of mess/ice to rain, then some pretty cold air behind it. There's some decent cold ahead of the system too before the flip. In any event, something to watch. Has the look of areas in western/central MD or western VA potentially getting into quite an icing situation, more so than the DC-Balt corridor.

Meh! But seriously, nice signal there for sure. Definitely an uptick in the amounts, especially what appear to be big solutions (and I know, taking snow maps with a huge grain of salt and all that). I'm glad the GEFS is continuing to show that still today. And yeah, that's all in the latter part of the period of the 384-h.

Interesting for sure! But even taking it as-is, couldn't it imply something possible beyond this time, if that ridging in the east gets booted out or suppressed more with the flow upstream? It's almost something like @psuhoffman mentioned earlier, a neutral to -PNA but strong -EPO ridging going up toward the Pole and some good ridging in the NAO region.

@Bob Chill, I know it's all speculation and model projections out in time, but if that ends up being true, I think we'd all be happy with it! Feb. 2014 was a fun time, and Feb. 2015 had epic cold and some neat events as well (and both years had a solid March, too).

I do believe that is an oxymoron!!

Yeah, I know...but couldn't let that go by. Maybe it was just him being snarky and my snark meter is broken (but irrational could be the case to!)! Anyhow, you're right...the uptick in activity is the main point. I honestly haven't been following too closely but from my reading here, that GEFS plot you showed is probably about the best it's been in some time. I'd take that right now and hope it's a real signal and not a "blip" that will revert to crap again!