Scarlet Pimpernel

One reason why 2013-14 is way up there on my list of winters...in the years that I've been here, at least (since 2001). Depending on the day and how I feel, I rate that winter as better even than 2002-03, despite the KU event that February. Yeah, I know, it's sacrilege to declare anything other than '09-10 better than '02-03, but you know what I mean. Not a single KU event in '13-14, and only one event that scored a foot-plus where I'm at (in Feb. 2014), but the sheer number of moderate or better events was astonishing. Especially given the overall winter pattern that season. Not to mention how late in the season we got those. I'd argue we can do well with a "bootleg" -NAO too, like the Blizzard of 2016. A small precursor clipper helped "keep it in place" just long enough to deliver that two days later. But there's always an element of luck there, too. (ETA: And that blizzard occurred after a gut-punching warm December that was +11 on the month!!).

Lazy ass, sleeping on the job! Geez, it's all gotta be automated now!!

Ha! For some reason this reminds me of something I read years ago. The basic story was that this one guy who was working at some factory while on summer break from "University" (he was British, yes). Apparently he was working with someone who was not very bright and kind of obnoxious, and was having trouble loosening one of these large bolts from a nut. The "university" guy kindly offered advice to heat it so that the nut would expand and break free more easily. The "not very bright" guy was a bit put off and said "Oh, so things get bigger when they get hotter, eh??" To which "university" responded sarcastically, "Yeah, that's why the days are longer in summer than they are in winter"...and Mr. "not very bright's" face looked puzzled for a moment, then cleared as he apparently bought it!!

Thanks for this, WxUSAF. In a way, kind of sad we actually need this kind of notice, but given the past couple or so winters it's necessary. I'm reminded of Bob's similar post at some point (2 winters ago? I've lost track!). The medium range threads really did get to be a chore to slog through at times, to the point of being unreadable. The panic room thread is great, because it's nice for people to vent in there or be snarky, and also just make fun of it all when the going is tough (Thanks, WxWatcher007/Reaper)! So yeah, with that, just have to take things how they go, even if it's not easy. As frustrating as it can be when it's not going well, I still try to at least get some understanding from a scientific/meteorological standpoint as to why events happened as they did (because the geek in me still is interested in that!). I have zero expectation one way or another on this upcoming winter season, given some of the discussion I've seen. Looks like too many factors on either side to make a set determination...so whatever!

Isotherm, his arms open. Shaka, when the walls fell (meaning winter fail???).

Wow! Maybe some Black Friday specials?? Oh, and I know you've spruced things up around the Room. But has the reaper staff finally upgraded to free wi-fi and continental breakfasts??

A'la "Kung Fu Panda"..."Yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mystery, but today is a gift. That's why it's called the present!" Sorry to go all zen there on your humor, haha!

Somehow, this reminds me of that old Saturday Night Live skit "Chicago Super Fans", where these 3 guys (I think George Wendt of "Cheers" was on that as a guest?) betting on what the Bears' score will be. One of them predicted something like "Bears 72, Lions -28"...and another asked how you can get a negative score in football...to which the reply was "Hey, Ditka will find a way!!" So with that...hey, DCA will find a way!!

I think Ji beat you by about 3 months on that!

Dogwood: ...And a single red rose still blooming in mid-autumn:

Red Maples:

It may not have been the best year for brilliant fall colors, but this season did have some moments. Here are a few for you (splitting this up into multiple messages)... Brilliant Maple:

Welcome back from summertime "hibernation", Bob! I'm rubbing my eyes and waking up myself as we get into November now! Always good to see your thoughts, regardless of how the conditions are, thanks again for your level-headed discussion and insights. I guess this winter will be a "wait and see" how things turn out, especially if the ENSO state perhaps won't be so much of a driving factor. I think what you say here is about as much as one can infer at this point. Some good periods of -EPO would be nice, and not having the SE ridge of death for weeks on end would surely help. I don't think we'll revisit the amazing fortune of 2013-14 (that was in a special class by itself), but if we can even get in that ballpark, it would make for some interesting times. I'm not looking for epic-ness, but some interesting solid events to follow and score on would be a win. Last year was strange...so much relative "hype", and I'm still not sure why various indices and model projections seemed so "off" even in the medium range. But even with that, at least speaking from a DC-metro-centric point of view, we still did halfway decently, all things considered (early snow in Nov., the Jan. event, some solid cold around then as well, plus the snow in mid-Feb).

Ha! I stay far enough away from where the axe throwing area is but it's amusing to see people try it out! I wasn't drunk myself, but I did don my Robin Hood cap to appear like I was at least sort of in costume!

What a gorgeous fall day yesterday! Went to the MD Renaissance Festival (have gone the last several years around this time). Here's a couple of photos I took... At the jousting arena: And here's what apparently is an early version of the NAM (but perhaps more accurate outside 48 hours)!

Get off my lawn, you damned trick-or-treaters...says the old man!! ; ) I'll continue your rant here if you don't mind, haha! OK, being a bit snarky there, but in all honesty I agree with a lot of what you say. The it's vs. its thing kind of irritates me when people don't do it right. Simple to just remember "it's" is the contraction for it is, "its" (with NO apostrophe) is the possessive of it. Also agree with the "someone has been..." vs. just saying "someone was...", but I'm a bit more forgiving on that one. I remember in about 6th grade, a teacher made us all memorize prepositions, and had a funny way of helping you to remember it. Just think of a sewer pipe and any relationship to it will be a preposition: IN the sewer pipe, NEAR the sewer pipe, ALONG the sewer pipe, etc. You get the idea. But I've never forgotten that in trying to determine what's a preposition!! Single space at the end of a sentence? Oh HELL NO!! Yeah, I'll be a Grammar Nazi, and maybe it's (not its, hahaha!) more acceptable to just use a single space with Twitter and other social media to save space or something like that. But in formal (or even not-so-formal) writing? Follow the regular rules! I always learned 2 spaces after a period or colon and one space after a semi-colon or comma. Sometimes, I find it hard to read when someone only puts one space after a period. RDM...not sure if you're old enough(?) to be familiar with Tom Lehrer. I was too young or not yet alive when he did a lot of his routines "live", but my parents indoctrinated me with his stuff when I was growing up (with records, no less!)! Your comment about new math reminded me of his song/skit about that: Oh, and as for trig? Hell, I remember having to interpolate using a table! And walking uphill both ways while doing it! Does anyone know how to interpolate from a table anymore? Part of me thinks perhaps it's just not necessary nowadays of course, but at the same time, a little bit of having to do that does help just to get a taste of how it works. Even if you never have to look at at trig or log table again. It's the idea of it, the knowledge of what to do and how it works, that's important I think.

Another mid-Atlantic get-together might be fun, if anyone else is looking into this too. I'd be up for it. Maybe as we get more into fall(?)...it's a great time of year.

So apparently, global warming has now affected Ji...this is remarkably early even for him to cancel winter!!

Stay cool everyone! Feels awful out there...ugh. Sitting here recovering from having a pin placed in the top joint of my left pinky finger to set it...had that done earlier this morning. Got injured last week at a softball game (on a bad throw, damn the 3rd baseman haha!). Fractured the top part and dinged the joint out of place. Fun times! Pin comes out in about 4 weeks.

Cast the green from thine own county, then shalt thou see the speck of blue in Loudoun! (or something like that?)

Yeah, it's hard to say...one run and all that. Agree that once tonight's coastal is actually out of the way and "known" better, perhaps we'll get a better lock on exactly what the Sunday/Monday event will do. For whatever it's worth, I went back and forth on the 24-h precip ending 18Z Monday, looking back through 00Z last night. Today's 12Z cycle has a noticeable increase in QPF over our region, both in terms of amount and coverage, if you flip back over the past 2-3 cycles (though that big max stripe in the southeast around AL/GA decreases). The low is also stronger and a bit more tucked on the NC coast (it was a bit farther south and off the NC coast at 00Z, and off the Delmarva at 06Z. These may be just back and forth oscillations, but those are the most "notable" things I saw at least at the surface. Hard to say if there's much change at 500, other than maybe some more lifting/ridging of the flow to the northeast in the 12Z cycle compared to the past couple runs.

Don't forget wind...we absolutely excel at strong winds around here!

3.3" at around 9AM...Chevy Chase, MD.

Agree. Where I'm at (Chevy Chase/Silver Spring area), even main roads are covered and treacherous. East-West Hwy, Conn Ave, etc. I had to drive in it briefly earlier this morning when it just started getting bad. People need to realize you just have to keep driving slowly and steadily (lower gear), and *not* just stop out of the blue.

LOL! Better than getting NAM'd!! Thanks for your ever-positive attitude with snow, much appreciated around here!!