Scarlet Pimpernel

Cast the green from thine own county, then shalt thou see the speck of blue in Loudoun! (or something like that?)

I kind of get the Jun. 15 mandate, in a way, so that in the event of makeup snow days there won't be classes until late into June. But that also has resulted (in MoCo at least, where my daughter is in high school) in a dramatically shortened spring break this year. It's not even a week long, and I think they might cut one day out to make up a snow day (since MoCo has gone over their limit this year, I believe). Maybe they can get rid of some of the miscellaneous days off or teacher days, etc., and re-work other breaks, I don't know. I also don't mind a post-Labor Day start in general, but perhaps if they begin the year with the last *full* week of August before Labor Day, that would help. I know in the past they used to start like that Thurs. before Labor Day, then a 3 day weekend before you were barely into classes, which seemed kind of useless.

Cue @yoda response in 3...2...1...!

I see your point...and sure, up around NYC the CMC dumps a ton on them. Certainly more than here of course. But I thought you stated things in a bit of a misleading fashion. Your initial statement that "we get some snow but not nearly as much" with no other information made it sound like we get very little. And then the map you post shows the 24-h period ending at 12Z 3/10 when areas northeast of us are getting hammered while apparently showing relatively little here. However, we get around a foot in the 24 hours ending 12 hours before that (ending 00Z 3/10, according to the map Stormtracker posted). I'd hardly call what we get "some snow", just taking the model verbatim. But I guess in the end it's worthless to parse a single model run of the CMC for an event that's over a week out, LOL! Fun to look at though and I like the potential.

Yeah, it's hard to say...one run and all that. Agree that once tonight's coastal is actually out of the way and "known" better, perhaps we'll get a better lock on exactly what the Sunday/Monday event will do. For whatever it's worth, I went back and forth on the 24-h precip ending 18Z Monday, looking back through 00Z last night. Today's 12Z cycle has a noticeable increase in QPF over our region, both in terms of amount and coverage, if you flip back over the past 2-3 cycles (though that big max stripe in the southeast around AL/GA decreases). The low is also stronger and a bit more tucked on the NC coast (it was a bit farther south and off the NC coast at 00Z, and off the Delmarva at 06Z. These may be just back and forth oscillations, but those are the most "notable" things I saw at least at the surface. Hard to say if there's much change at 500, other than maybe some more lifting/ridging of the flow to the northeast in the 12Z cycle compared to the past couple runs.

Don't forget wind...we absolutely excel at strong winds around here!

You'll get pummeled while us down here near the metro area will be sucking on rain and mid 30s! Joking of course(?), but it is true what you say about the Euro, for everyone (don't want a low moving that far north).

Yeah, ICON is kind of difficult to get much from...at least on TT, you can only see the 2-m temps, plus freezing/sleet is shown as "rain" on those plots. Makes it a bit hard to assess in these situations. Agree that right near metros is kind of leaning rain according to that, but the 2-m freezing line isn't far away. Crazy to parse it too much at this point, of course. We really need colder air to move in sooner.

That ICON again looks like potential ice/sleet just immediately along and northwest of I-95. Just going by the 2-m temp and precip type on TT (and the ICON shows ZR/IP as "rain"). Can't see what levels above the surface are like. Also, maybe this was mentioned before...but I don't necessarily think our "problem" (at least nearer to the metros) is so much the location/path of the southern low, but that low north of the Lakes that moves east-northeast and whatever front that takes its time moving through. How fast can we get cold air in here as the low to the south moves up toward the coast and can there be enough of a push? The temps actually seem to cool slightly or at least stay "constant" during the precip. Obviously that's all inter-related in some fashion. Probably being master of the obvious here, so sorry if that's the case, but just bringing that up.

Verbatim, the immediate DC area and along I-95 would quite possibly be snow to ice looking at the 2-m temperatures. Yeah, I know, looking at ICON details for an event that far out...but yeah, it's close in the metro areas...and northern tier (maybe even southern northern tier, hahaha!) would get hammered with snow.

FYP...

Yeah, I hear you...a string of clear, pleasant days would be nice sometime this spring (after one more good snow event to close out the season!). While I don't care for weeks on end drought, I've about had my fill of cold, dank rain that seems to occur every other day. Of course, I had to make the (obvious!) pun on drought vs. draught in my comment above! ; )

Not sure I want an all-out severe drought...but I'd definitely be up for some good draughts anytime!!

@psuhoffman, recently there has been some "disappointment" suggested by some about the Mar. 1-3 possibility, which is now looking a lot less decent. However, my impression from the past few or so days is that that time period was not exactly quite favorable yet anyhow, though there were some good model runs for that event. It seems that you, @showmethesnow, and @Bob Chill were more "enthused" (so to speak) about the Mar. 4-8 time frame. Maybe I've got that wrong, but that's the impression I had. So while I haven't completely written off the first couple days of March, I've been focusing on the first full week of the month as our better window. Not sure if I have that idea correct, but like I said, in reading the past few days that's the overall sense I got. With all that said, and with all the fail scenarios firmly in place in my mind (always gotta have those in mind around here!), that 500-mb setup you show is very intriguing! Could come to nothing in the end of course...but that's as good a signal as you'll see in that time range. I'm not even thinking or looking (seriously) for some big 1993 bomb or other HECS here...a solid warning-level snow followed by a couple days of legit cold would be a fine way to have winter bow out for the year. Of course, I sure as hell won't complain if the models "latch on" to a HECS setup and we end up with that...it would be loads of fun! And I have to say something about the "sun angle" nay-sayers...yes, it's a factor of course, especially as you get into March. But it gets annoying hearing it year after year, as if it automatically means we can't do well with snow. Not to mention it was annoying to have it derail this thread for about 3 pages the other day. Sun angle and increasing average temperature doesn't in any way preclude very good accumulating snows even on paved surfaces during a good event. Sure, the snow may in most cases disappear afterward with a couple of sunny days, but I've also experienced enough good events followed by some cold air right after for a day or so (i.e., below freezing highs in March). And to beat the dead horse I'll say again like other have, that we've had many recent warning-level snow events in March, even into the 2nd half of the month. I'll keep saying that as long as the tired sun angle argument is trotted out!

Might want to swap the legend meanings for yellow and red...

3.3" at around 9AM...Chevy Chase, MD.

Agree. Where I'm at (Chevy Chase/Silver Spring area), even main roads are covered and treacherous. East-West Hwy, Conn Ave, etc. I had to drive in it briefly earlier this morning when it just started getting bad. People need to realize you just have to keep driving slowly and steadily (lower gear), and *not* just stop out of the blue.

LOL! Better than getting NAM'd!! Thanks for your ever-positive attitude with snow, much appreciated around here!!

FWIW, I looked at the HRRR (12Z) just to see what it showed...temperatures are still just below freezing through 00Z this evening along I95 corridor. Right now...looks very pretty out, large flakes, pounding snow! We're getting Jeb'd!!

Coming down good here (dare I use the word "ripping"?)...Chevy Chase, MD. Went out to get some photos. Roads are covered, even the main ones. Around 2" on the ground now.

Agree. And BTW I remember that Feb 2014 event you mentioned, if it's the one that dumped on us overnight for hours, followed by sleet then dry slot/drizzle much of next day. It should be a fun event for sure. My hope is to keep the surface cold into the evening (hold off all rain long as possible), or at least have the complement of the day be wintry with snow and sleet.

Welcome back Mr. Chill, sir! And yes, let's do this...looking forward to tomorrow! Cloudy, feels wintry out but no idea of exact temp. Probably like mid 30s.

That's right...start 'em off early with doing the chores! Uphill, both ways, with the sun in your eyes! And like it! But seriously...nice photos, and glad your first "real" snow event since being in this area was so fun! (ETA: I heard Jebman offers training courses in proper shoveling technique!)

Final count...11.0" at 9PM. Still some very light snow falling, but it's pretty well over. Great event!

Indeed that would be! Nice!