Scarlet Pimpernel

Oh, hello there, pot!!

ETA: I'll take the over on those temps...but even still, that's quite the signal for some real cold. Even if overdone it might end up the coldest (or colder) since Feb. 2015 if this happens.

Yeah, that D6 (next Wed.) system hopefully can keep the boundary just south of us or so. I thought the models were backing off some from dumping the TPV too far west, from some discussion I recall later yesterday.

Well, you and PSU (and some others) kind of highlighted that time period, and it has been showing up for a bit in various forms...so credit where credit is due if we score! Oh, and your phone needs a good charge again, LOL!!!

Yup...it's been showing that for a little while, definitely a good look!

Don't think it's dynamic enough for that, though a decent swath of QPF. We got thundersnow and heavy rates during 2011 Commutageddon, but that was an strong upper low that passed over us.

It would be nice to get a solid or better event that's cold powder, followed by some real cold to keep it around for awhile. But what I wouldn't want is very cold with nothing but bare, frozen ground. Not expecting a KU...but a nice overrunning type event falling into an Arctic push would be cool.

Probably some of its runs during Snowmageddon in 2010 or perhaps the Jan. 2016 blizzard.

ICON is notably colder Sunday afternoon compared to the NAM as well...

Looks like we hit around 40 or low 40s (in and around DC area, at least) Sunday afternoon after the precip ends, then it cools off quickly beginning in the evening into the mid-20s by middle of the night (for what that's worth out at 84h range).

If you click on the "+" symbol next to where it says "quote", this allows you to do a multi-quote including moving it to another thread. So you can do that, then go into Banter, and click the "Quote 1 post". ' by mappy!

Setting the ground rules right!!

Lot of model spelunking going on here!

Agree. Though I have a feeling the Euro is probably overdoing the extreme of the cold air. I'd much rather have the snow and some cold, it doesn't have to be Arctic-level here. Temps in the 20s and a nice overrunning event with cold smoke powder would be great! Much better than 5-10 and dry as a bone here while seeing snow/ice in GA/SC.

Yeah, verbatim (not worth much at this point I know!) looks like some kind of ice/snow mix across much of the area, but temperatures are quite cold. Good overrunning setup for sure.

Now when anyone busts out RuPaul, then we'll know for sure!!

It does look pretty good even though a fast-mover. It really trucks on through. Interestingly, it's rather cold too comparatively speaking.

I remember that. Coldest inauguration on record, I believe. (ETA: I was in northeast Ohio at the time, still in high school...and it was bitter cold in Ohio that month!)

4-5"+ of cold smoke powder as shown, given the temperatures.

Thanks for this! The only thing I would change about your post would be to remove the "No offense" part...screw it, offense is deserved for knee-jerk reactions about model performance like this. Personally, I found the comment to be an insult to those developers and scientists who have worked hard on the GFSv16 and its implementation. Mini-rant over.

The GFS has never really been "enthused" about Sunday. At most it seems to indicate possibly a squall or snow showers on the leading edge of the strong cold front.

The worst of the worst of the worst! Sir! (a'la "MIB"). ETA: Or, for those who are familiar, there's always "The Wurst of P.D.Q. Bach" (with Peter Schickele)!!

I think thus far, the past several runs, the GFS has been indicating more of a very strong frontal passage here for Sunday, with the southern low remaining well south. Haven't seen the GEFS.

I think perhaps one of the best things about this snow event was @Bob Chill's return! Honestly, last Friday afternoon when he showed up, it's like the mood of this board lightened up. Almost celebratory. I'm sure part of that was due to it being a Friday and part of it because the models were looking pretty good around that time. But mostly, I think a lot of people were just happy to see him come back, sort of signaling that "it's on"! A certain amount of the sniping and negativity was lifted, at least for awhile. I also thought his subtle return was amusing, with his "Hey peeps...how much for Rockville?" comment in the storm thread! At any rate, thanks for that, Bob!