Scarlet Pimpernel

Pretty much...general area of lat/lon, 50N/50W, that you'd want a large closed low at 500-mb (maybe a bit farther west than 50W, but 50/50 sounds better!). Classic location to get confluent flow over the northeast US, which funnels cold air down, and keeps a large, cold high in place (a'la cold air damming along the Appalachians). This effectively blocks any approaching surface low from "cutting" off to our west and northwest, and enables coastal low formation. Without some kind of 50/50, even a cold, strong high will just drift off to the east or northeast, a strong enough low will cut, and we'd end up with mostly rain or all rain.

Well...a dusting of snow, or a light crust, is really all I expect where I'm at. But cannot say I'm disappointed in any way. Will at least get on the board somewhat, unlike last December. It will still be an impressive temperature drop and tomorrow will be a rude awakening after 50s today. Heh...maybe it will give me a chance to dust off the brush/scraper for the car tomorrow morning (if I can find it and dig the darned thing out)!!

But we're heading toward a full moon this week, and it will be at a high angle. Things to consider. The thick cloud cover might help though.

Your complaint is noted!

Funny, but as I was reading the first part of your post quoted here, after looking at the GFS (and GEFS) 500-mb plot...my first thought was "ohhh, overrunning would be nice with that look!" Two minds and all that, right? Anyhow, yeah, such an event would be great, as long as we avoid a hugely amplified wave I suppose (not much blocking). I know we're talking fantasy land time range at this point, but still.

Dogs and cats living together...mass hysteria!!

I say that every year during the Cleveland Indians' opening game!

But the Panic Room has kicked it up a few notches this year! Just look at some of those resorts the Reaper invested in!

Not as much as the Browns!! (this is coming from a native of northeast Ohio!)

Exactly. Which is why I'm more or less in your camp, just sit back and see how things go. As long as it's not looking like wall-to-wall crap in the longer range, we should be OK. At this point in the month (only the 1st!), I'm not overly enthused nor am I concerned. Like I said...and as you've mentioned many times..."good" snow in the 1st half of December is climatologically not exactly the easiest in any year (barring something extreme like 2009). I tend to pay more attention as we get toward Christmas, when the medium range is getting into the last part of the month and first part of January. And you're absolutely correct, the same kind of pattern later in the month is easier to produce something snowy than it is now. A bit more forgiving, as it were. We don't require quite so much deviation from climo by then.

One might get whiplash from these two contrasting posts...a mere few hours apart (and apologies...sort of...for singling yours out!)! But seriously, having not followed much so far as we get into winter, it's hard to make too much of anything one way or another as this month progresses. And hope that's right about better changes later in the month. I think the general consensus from what I gleaned reading in here lately is that we'll have a period of "not so great" after this week, but perhaps transitioning into better later in the month. Maybe I misinterpreted that, but it's the sense I got. As long as we don't end up with week after week after week of "Pac Puke" like last year (phrase compliments of Bob Chill!), and then have to waste more weeks "recovering" from that! Or another Christmas Eve like 2015, where it was actually uncomfortably humid and damp. Lately, snow in December around these parts seems almost like a bonus. Even a small amount. Good news is, maybe even if it's relatively mild, I can get a few miles of bike riding in now and then before we go full Jebman with extreme cold and deep snow pack (and of course I'd root for that)!!

One reason why 2013-14 is way up there on my list of winters...in the years that I've been here, at least (since 2001). Depending on the day and how I feel, I rate that winter as better even than 2002-03, despite the KU event that February. Yeah, I know, it's sacrilege to declare anything other than '09-10 better than '02-03, but you know what I mean. Not a single KU event in '13-14, and only one event that scored a foot-plus where I'm at (in Feb. 2014), but the sheer number of moderate or better events was astonishing. Especially given the overall winter pattern that season. Not to mention how late in the season we got those. I'd argue we can do well with a "bootleg" -NAO too, like the Blizzard of 2016. A small precursor clipper helped "keep it in place" just long enough to deliver that two days later. But there's always an element of luck there, too. (ETA: And that blizzard occurred after a gut-punching warm December that was +11 on the month!!).

Lazy ass, sleeping on the job! Geez, it's all gotta be automated now!!

Ha! For some reason this reminds me of something I read years ago. The basic story was that this one guy who was working at some factory while on summer break from "University" (he was British, yes). Apparently he was working with someone who was not very bright and kind of obnoxious, and was having trouble loosening one of these large bolts from a nut. The "university" guy kindly offered advice to heat it so that the nut would expand and break free more easily. The "not very bright" guy was a bit put off and said "Oh, so things get bigger when they get hotter, eh??" To which "university" responded sarcastically, "Yeah, that's why the days are longer in summer than they are in winter"...and Mr. "not very bright's" face looked puzzled for a moment, then cleared as he apparently bought it!!

Thanks for this, WxUSAF. In a way, kind of sad we actually need this kind of notice, but given the past couple or so winters it's necessary. I'm reminded of Bob's similar post at some point (2 winters ago? I've lost track!). The medium range threads really did get to be a chore to slog through at times, to the point of being unreadable. The panic room thread is great, because it's nice for people to vent in there or be snarky, and also just make fun of it all when the going is tough (Thanks, WxWatcher007/Reaper)! So yeah, with that, just have to take things how they go, even if it's not easy. As frustrating as it can be when it's not going well, I still try to at least get some understanding from a scientific/meteorological standpoint as to why events happened as they did (because the geek in me still is interested in that!). I have zero expectation one way or another on this upcoming winter season, given some of the discussion I've seen. Looks like too many factors on either side to make a set determination...so whatever!

Isotherm, his arms open. Shaka, when the walls fell (meaning winter fail???).

Wow! Maybe some Black Friday specials?? Oh, and I know you've spruced things up around the Room. But has the reaper staff finally upgraded to free wi-fi and continental breakfasts??

A'la "Kung Fu Panda"..."Yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mystery, but today is a gift. That's why it's called the present!" Sorry to go all zen there on your humor, haha!

Somehow, this reminds me of that old Saturday Night Live skit "Chicago Super Fans", where these 3 guys (I think George Wendt of "Cheers" was on that as a guest?) betting on what the Bears' score will be. One of them predicted something like "Bears 72, Lions -28"...and another asked how you can get a negative score in football...to which the reply was "Hey, Ditka will find a way!!" So with that...hey, DCA will find a way!!

I think Ji beat you by about 3 months on that!

Dogwood: ...And a single red rose still blooming in mid-autumn:

Red Maples:

It may not have been the best year for brilliant fall colors, but this season did have some moments. Here are a few for you (splitting this up into multiple messages)... Brilliant Maple:

Welcome back from summertime "hibernation", Bob! I'm rubbing my eyes and waking up myself as we get into November now! Always good to see your thoughts, regardless of how the conditions are, thanks again for your level-headed discussion and insights. I guess this winter will be a "wait and see" how things turn out, especially if the ENSO state perhaps won't be so much of a driving factor. I think what you say here is about as much as one can infer at this point. Some good periods of -EPO would be nice, and not having the SE ridge of death for weeks on end would surely help. I don't think we'll revisit the amazing fortune of 2013-14 (that was in a special class by itself), but if we can even get in that ballpark, it would make for some interesting times. I'm not looking for epic-ness, but some interesting solid events to follow and score on would be a win. Last year was strange...so much relative "hype", and I'm still not sure why various indices and model projections seemed so "off" even in the medium range. But even with that, at least speaking from a DC-metro-centric point of view, we still did halfway decently, all things considered (early snow in Nov., the Jan. event, some solid cold around then as well, plus the snow in mid-Feb).

Ha! I stay far enough away from where the axe throwing area is but it's amusing to see people try it out! I wasn't drunk myself, but I did don my Robin Hood cap to appear like I was at least sort of in costume!