Scarlet Pimpernel

Haha, no, of course not! I was only chiding you there (since I'm from northeast Ohio) because I had to, of course! And God forbid we fail like either the Bungles or the Clowns in terms of the pattern!

Now wait just a minute there, sir!! Change that to Cincinnati Bengals and it might be more accurate! Though yes, the Browns most definitely have a history lately of total ineptitude, even with the talent they had this year (that's what you get with poor coaching and poor discipline!).

Hahaha, just unreal! Suddenly the Texans cannot do anything after essentially being spotted a 24 pt lead! I expected KC would get themselves somewhat back in it by the half, but not quite like that! This might be one of the quickest turn-arounds in the playoffs (see my 1993 comment above, from the old Houston Oilers!). ETA: Four TDs in under 10 minutes now?! Chiefs going from being badly embarrassed to a 4 point lead...

Of course, lest we forget another Houston team from long ago (1993) that had a 35-3 lead vs. Buffalo early in the 2nd half...and ended up losing in just about the most incredible come-back in NFL playoff history.

True...shows how much I've paid attention! But still, it would be a highly unlikely AFC championship. I'm sure most were thinking Ravens, Pats, Chiefs in some combination would be in the final round. (ETA: And hey, give me a break, being from Cleveland...home of the BrClowns! The only team with so much talent and potential this season that they finished 6-10 and nowhere near a playoff spot thanks to crappy coaching and lack of discipline. And the most "exciting" thing was an awful helmet-hit penalty. Gah!!)

Holy cow...Houston! Could we possibly end up with an all-wild-card AFC championship? Kinda rooting for that now, I think!

A bit late here, but couldn't resist!!

Wait...I thought you were Spartacus! Or perhaps Groot.

Took this photo last night...moon in the clouds. The sky was very dramatic looking, I have to say. The moon is overexposed more than I'd like, I know, but in order to get the clouds to "show up", I sort of had to do that with a slower shutter. The blur in the clouds is due to the fact that they were actually moving rather quickly across the scene.

Not that a deterministic at that range means a lot (obligatory caveat!)...but the 18Z GFS looked more or less like we saw in previous cycles for next weekend (MLK weekend). That is, some kind of mess/ice to rain, then some pretty cold air behind it. There's some decent cold ahead of the system too before the flip. In any event, something to watch. Has the look of areas in western/central MD or western VA potentially getting into quite an icing situation, more so than the DC-Balt corridor.

Meh! But seriously, nice signal there for sure. Definitely an uptick in the amounts, especially what appear to be big solutions (and I know, taking snow maps with a huge grain of salt and all that). I'm glad the GEFS is continuing to show that still today. And yeah, that's all in the latter part of the period of the 384-h.

Interesting for sure! But even taking it as-is, couldn't it imply something possible beyond this time, if that ridging in the east gets booted out or suppressed more with the flow upstream? It's almost something like @psuhoffman mentioned earlier, a neutral to -PNA but strong -EPO ridging going up toward the Pole and some good ridging in the NAO region.

A bit late, but here's a couple of photos I got from yesterday's event (love the 17-50mm lens!!!). Right around 1.5" snow where I'm at...

@Bob Chill, I know it's all speculation and model projections out in time, but if that ends up being true, I think we'd all be happy with it! Feb. 2014 was a fun time, and Feb. 2015 had epic cold and some neat events as well (and both years had a solid March, too).

I do believe that is an oxymoron!!

Yeah, I know...but couldn't let that go by. Maybe it was just him being snarky and my snark meter is broken (but irrational could be the case to!)! Anyhow, you're right...the uptick in activity is the main point. I honestly haven't been following too closely but from my reading here, that GEFS plot you showed is probably about the best it's been in some time. I'd take that right now and hope it's a real signal and not a "blip" that will revert to crap again!

Really? OK, yeah, looking at snow maps out at 384 hours is taken with a grain of salt and all that. But that 25% (5/20) of members you mention have the DC-Balt corridor in the "purple" and higher colors (6"+). And another four are >2" through that time. That seems like a decent signal to me. Also, while this is the total through that time, I'd wager nearly all that occurs in the latter part of the time frame seeing that we're heading toward a lousy and warm pattern for several days coming up well into next week. I'd guess that's the most bullish the GEFS has been in quite some time, and a big improvement (and step toward what the EPS has been showing?) over previous runs just a couple days ago.

As long as it's not "f-ing Merlot!" (if you're familiar with the movie "Sideways")!!

Everyone makes the rookie mistakes now and then! Maybe you should have one MORE beer instead!

Moderate-plus snow falling, Chevy Chase area. Nice, big flakes! About 0.5" coating on grass/mulch/cars, and some slush on pavement areas. Will try to post a couple photos later on when I have a chance.

@psuhoffman, many thanks for compiling this! Very informative and useful...appreciate your efforts and time!

Here's a wintry mix I would prefer about now. Shaken, not stirred! And remember...always eat the olive first, don't want to drink on an empty stomach!!

Yes indeed, it is!! A classic...

That looks really...uncomfortable!

Well, it's time that we go "Breaking Away" for the winter then!! (Obligatory pun).