Scarlet Pimpernel

I've been thinking, this is a very interesting period coming up starting tomorrow through next week. To me, it's kind of reminiscent of mid-February 2015. The event tomorrow reminds me of the burst of snow and squalls we got late in the day of Feb. 14, a quick 2" within an hour or so where I'm at. That was along the leading edge of an Arctic blast, it got very cold and windy in a big hurry that evening. It was really cool! That was followed by some extremely cold air the following week. That's the last time I remember it being so cold around here like that, and next week looks to be similar. Maybe the event tomorrow will be a bit more than the one in 2015 here in the metro DC area, if we're lucky!

I'm far from an expert on AI or anything like that, but here's my understanding: The "regular" ECMWF model is based upon dynamic and thermodynamic equations (speaking very simply here), with a set of initial conditions and observations to start from. Those equations are evaluated through time to obtain forecasts. The AI version is based upon some collection of past "training data" (such as previous atmospheric conditions and observations, and perhaps analogues), which are sort of "regressed" or "correlated" against an independent set of observed data (think of it as a highly sophisticated multi-linear regression, in a way). Others can chime in, I hope this is reasonably accurate of a description albeit kind of simple.

ICON somewhat juicier than it was earlier, it seems? Just going by what I saw here on a snow clown map above.

Nice! I'm on my 3rd glass of wine for the evening right now!

Amen! In 2022-23 I got literally 0.5" snow for the season that fell in the pre-dawn hours one day in early February, and it was gone before 10AM. That's it. Oh, and a bit of snow-TV later in February. It was consistently warm all that winter. That was truly a God-awful season.

How's that compare to 12Z or earlier cycles?

Does it actually bring in the precip later than previously? Not saying that's a bad thing, just wondering in terms of start time.

She didn't say "fudge!" She said the F dash-dash-dash word!!!

So...basically, normal rush hour!

You mean...how much for Short Pump???

Dry af. But seriously, that's a reasonable outlook given what all the guidance says. I think too many here get all giddy and excited when one particular model run shows a lot more snow. Then another model cuts back on that somewhat but still quite respectable, and people go nuts over how awful it is. Totally understand getting stoked when we see a lot more from one model, but have to keep this in perspective. Really all along, this wasn't going to be some huge event in this area, but still a solid amount followed by Arctic cold. Again, expectations and all that.

Thing is, the RGEM has been just as adamant in that solution as the Euro AI has been with its solution. I just hope the RGEM is overdone and way too far northwest on the thermals.

Yeah, I wasn't sure if that was a snark type comment from @bncho, or if they didn't realize that you change your avatar every year for MLK day.

The moral arc of the universe is long, but it bends toward an early weekend dismissal!

Perhaps we'll call it the Prince Regent for now, until it proves itself more!

Same...I read through (more like skimmed) back several pages when I got up this morning. The actual discussion parts sounded pretty darned good to me, so I didn't get all these doom posts.

I await the Kuchera precip maps!!

It certainly was! Of course that whole winter 2013-14 was about as wall-to-wall as one can get around here. I don't recall the early Feb. 2014 ice event, maybe it was more in the northern part of MD where you're at. But yeah, that mid-month (around Valentine's Day) storm was great! I recall doing a Jebwalk taking pictures around 1AM, and it was just puking snow! That March was likewise incredible...a moderate event early in the month, the St. Patrick's Day storm, another small event on March 25 (my birthday!), and then even an inch right at the end of the month.

FYP!!

We always hope to get Barney'd with purple!!

It's a complicated development for sure. Almost looks like a northern stream system that pops a sort of coastal while the "primary" near the Lakes hangs on for a bit. Here's that closed low at 500 that I mentioned earlier (not sure why I can't copy/paste from TT, had to save the image and insert...but whatever):

Ice and 25 degrees at one point? Then briefly goes above freezing it appears.

Yeah there's some odd stuff going on. If you look at the upper midwest, the 12Z GFS now has this (small) closed 528 contour over MN at 500-mb, which I don't think was there or like that before. So yeah, a low over the Lakes area. But oddly, it looks (at least initially) still cold even southeast of that surface low.